Damaging Wind in Wisconsin, May 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1036 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon.
  Severe storms are not anticipated, but possibly small hail and
  gusty winds with the stronger storms.

- More rounds of showers and storms late tonight into Mon then
  again late Mon night into Tue, but much uncertainty for
  severe storms given the morning timing of potential MCSs.

- Cool and drier weather then returns for Wed-Thu.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1020 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Now that we are beginning to see the hand that is being dealt,
lets break it down:

Remnant decaying complex moving across southern WI this morning
bringing showers through late morning and departing early
afternoon. While this MCV is moving over a highly stable
environment with the onshore flow off of Lake Michigan, have
seen parts of this system tap into the elevated instability
(MUCAPE ~500-1000 J/kg) and perk up enough to produce a few
thunderstorms. As the MCV pushes eastward through the early
afternoon, may see additional redevelopment with some daytime
heating and beginning to see signs of this back in northeastern
IA/southwestern WI. However, still uncertain on if this will
become more widespread or if the stable marine layer will win
out as it departs. If things are able to recover enough and tap
into the elevated environment, then a few isolated strong storms
cannot be ruled out now through the early afternoon with some
hail possible with the departing MCV, which looks to push east
after noon between 18z-20z. While severe potential remains on
the lower side at the moment, will need to monitor as MCVs are
notorious for creating localized environments that can support
healthier/stronger storms right along the feature.

The next area to watch is behind the departing MCV. While the
onshore flow and lingering clouds will keep parts of southern WI,
mainly north of I-94 in a more cool/stable environment, there is a
warm front stalled just south into northern IL. Initial runs of the
12z models are hinting that we see this warm front lift back
northward this afternoon bringing warm/moist airmass back into
southern WI, generally south of I-94. Accompanying the surface
front progression will be increasing instability (SBCAPE of
+1500 J/kg) along with lift from low-level WAA as well as a
nose of 30-40 kt LLJ. So some of the ingredients for stronger
storms may present itself later this afternoon along the warm
front, but the questions remains how the morning round of
showers, clouds, as well as easterly onshore flow off of Lake
Michigan limit the northward advancement of the warm front or
if the environment is worked over too much. So for this round
of activity will need to see how things lie in the next few
hours, but leaning toward the cooler air limiting the threat.

While uncertainty on environment recovery remains in play,
especially for southeastern WI, it does have a better chance
across southwestern WI where storms and clouds depart sooner.
So while we need to monitor for potential development later
this afternoon and evening, will also need to keep an eye on how
things play out upstream across western IA into the Plains. If
we do not see storms develop along the lifting warm front in
the afternoon/evening, the environment will be more supportive
of overnight storms that develop across the Plains and push
into the area overnight into Monday morning. Instability with
SBCAPE of +1000 J/kg and meager (30-35 kt) deep layer (0-6km)
shear paired with low-level forcing may be enough to maintain
the storms strength into our western portions of the CWA. The
12z CAMs continue to show a line of storms developing upstream
in IA and pushes east overnight. This would bring more of wind
threat to southwestern WI with the line. However there are two
camps with the line. One camp with the 12z HRRR, NSSL, and RRFS
having the line making to southwestern WI and gusting out as it
pushes eastward, likely favoring the warmer solutions winning
out while the other camp 12z NAM Nest and ARW weakening the line
and/or have it dive further south of the WI/IL border favoring
the cooler solutions. At this time temps are under performing
and hedging the forecast more toward the cooler solutions, but
it also will not take much for the warmer solutions to pan out
as well. Either way, the line of showers and storms is expected
to move through southern overnight, generally after midnight
departing around daybreak Monday with a weakening trend to the
east.

Regardless, stay weather aware today as there remains multiple
windows for storms now through tonight with potential for strong
to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds as well.

Wagner

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1223 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

The dry cold front is currently accelerating down Lake MI and
will arrive in the Sheboygan area around 1 AM CDT and MKE around
4 AM CDT. Farther to the southwest, a west to east line of slow
moving thunderstorms extends from ne IA into sw WI, probably
triggered by elevated warm, moist advection. A sswly low level
jet of 35-40 kt is expected to develop over ern IA and nose into
far srn WI toward 10Z so expect scattered storms to develop
over the area. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG near the IL border will
slowly drift nwd during the overnight, but lapse rates will
weaken resulting in MUCAPE falling below 500 J/KG. Still
expecting small hail within the stronger storms tnt.

Otherwise, more widespread showers and storms are expected from
Sun AM into the early to mid afternoon when 850-700 mb warm,
moist advection and a MCV moves through the region. The MCV will
develop from the severe convection over srn IA and nrn MO tnt and
lift newd into srn WI after 12Z. The remnants of the showers
and storms from NE to srn IA and nrn MO may accompany the MCV or
new development will occur given the aforementioned warm, moist
advection. The mid level lapse rates will drop to 5.5-6.0 C/KM
during this time so elevated CAPE will remain marginal with
perhaps small hail with the stronger storms. The sfc warm front
will not reach a line from Madison to Kenosha until late
afternoon but temps will quickly warm to near 80F once it
passes. High temps toward central WI should only reach into the
60s with 50 and 60s at the Lake MI shoreline.

A wave of low pressure will then track from ern NE to nw WI by
12Z Mon, while a decaying MCS from srn MN and IA may be
arriving after 09Z Mon over south central WI. The wave of low
pressure will weaken as it tracks newd across Lake Superior into
Ontario during the day, but will aid in continued warm, moist
advection over srn WI. A MCV may also be present within the
decaying MCS, and will forecast 60-70 percent chances for
showers and sct storms. The severe storm potential is very
uncertain given the morning arrival of showers and storms and
there may be a lack of forcing later in the afternoon.

Another wave of low pressure will develop from the central
Great Plains to nrn WI by 12Z Tue, while the main shortwave
trough tracks from the central Rockies to nw WI. The actual
trailing cold front will likely not pass until Tue, but there is
some confidence in another round of showers and storms for Mon
nt-Tue AM given srn WI remains downstream of areas of new
convective initiation and possible MCSs. The potential for
severe storms is very uncertain given the morning timing.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1223 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Wednesday through Saturday:

High pressure and a cooler air mass will follow for Wed-Thu
with lgt sly winds and warm advection returning late Thu into
Sat as the high moves ewd and a shortwave trough approaches
from the west. Thus high temps in the 60s for Wed-Thu will
return to the 70s well inland from Lake MI for Fri, then 70s
over all of srn WI on Sat. A slight chance for showers is
forecast Fri nt-Sat.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 618 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to move in from the
southwest this morning, with scattered storms then lingering
into the afternoon. As the storms move in, ceilings are expected
to lower to low VFR to MVFR, with other potential drops in
flight category due to vis restriction. Winds will be breezy,
out of the east to southeast.

There should be a lull in activity late in the day, with
ceilings giving way to SCT to FEW skycon tonight. More
thunderstorms may move in from the west around daybreak on
Monday.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1223 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A cold front over central Lake Michigan early this morning
will track to far southern Lake Michigan by daybreak. A wind
shift to the northeast is expected along with brief gusty winds.
The front will then gradually return north as a warm front
mainly tonight, with winds veering southerly and becoming
gusty. Areas of fog may form later today and evening as the
front moves northward. Breezy south winds will then continue
into Tuesday followed by a wind shift to the northwest late
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.
High pressure and light and variable winds will then take hold
from late Wednesday into Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be
needed from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for Mon-Tue due to
persistent and gusty south winds and high waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
609 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-181115-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
609 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning into the
afternoon. Stronger storms may have small hail and sub-severe
gusty winds.

A dying complex of thunderstorms may approach western portions of
our area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected Monday into Tuesday. There is
much uncertainty with the severe thunderstorm potential, but at
least a low probability for severe storms is forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday.

LMZ643>646-181115-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
609 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog may form later today into this evening. There is a chance
for thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Chances for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed from Sheboygan to Winthrop
Harbor for Monday and Tuesday due to persistent and gusty south
winds and high waves.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181115-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
609 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog may form later today into tonight.

There are chances for thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Breezy south winds and high waves are expected Monday into
Tuesday.

Chances for thunderstorms at times Monday into Tuesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1047 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ068-069-171630-
Green WI-Rock WI-
1047 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREEN AND ROCK
COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...

At 1047 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Monroe, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Monroe, Evansville, Brodhead, Orfordville, Albany,
Footville, Newark, Magnolia, Hanover, Afton, Juda, Avon, Johnstown
Center, and Leyden.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 39/90 between mile markers 168 and 178.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 near mile marker 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8957 4256 8969 4284 8936 4272 8879
      4250 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 237DEG 43KT 4254 8953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ057-063-171715-
Columbia WI-Dane WI-
1146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND DANE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Sun Prairie, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Stoughton, Waunakee,
Verona, Oregon, McFarland, Monona, Windsor, Edgerton, Columbus,
Marshall, Lake Wisconsin, Deforest, Cottage Grove, Cross Plains,
Lodi, and Poynette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4286 8965 4337 8963 4338 8960 4348 8960
      4349 8901 4285 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 249DEG 24KT 4322 8924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1233 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ058-171815-
Dodge WI-
1233 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DODGE COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM
CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles south of Beaver Dam, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Beaver Dam, Hartford, Waupun, Mayville, Horicon, Juneau,
Lomira, Theresa, Hustisford, Iron Ridge, Burnett, Ashippun, Rubicon,
Lebanon, Fox Lake, Woodland, Reeseville, Brownsville, and Neosho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 8842 4320 8901 4352 8900 4363 8877
      4363 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 237DEG 36KT 4336 8888

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
108 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ051-052-058-059-171845-
Dodge WI-Sheboygan WI-Washington WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
108 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FOND DU LAC...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN DODGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Theresa, or near Mayville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Juneau airport reported a wind gust to 48
         mph at 12:55 PM.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Bend, Waupun, Mayville, Kewaskum, Horicon, Lomira,
Campbellsport, Theresa, Newburg, Oakfield, Iron Ridge, Addison,
Ashford, Byron, Eden, Woodland, Brownsville, Wayne, Kekoskee, and
Nenno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 8804 4335 8850 4346 8863 4367 8875
      4372 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 249DEG 38KT 4345 8848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ051-171900-
Fond Du Lac WI-
144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FOND DU LAC COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Fond Du Lac, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, North Fond Du Lac, Southern Lake Winnebago, Van Dyne,
and Pipe.

This includes Interstate 41 between mile markers 101 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4379 8847 4389 8866 4389 8841 4394 8840
      4394 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 232DEG 28KT 4388 8851

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
214 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WIZ051-171945-
Fond Du Lac WI-
214 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FOND DU LAC COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Rosendale, or 7 miles east of Ripon, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, Ripon, North Fond Du Lac, Oakfield, Rosendale, Southern
Lake Winnebago, Taycheedah, Lamartine, Byron, Eldorado, Van Dyne,
Peebles, Pipe, Lagoda, Johnsburg, and West Rosendale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4363 8843 4363 8847 4380 8889 4390 8889
      4389 8841 4394 8840 4394 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 214DEG 32KT 4386 8870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MRC