Tornado and Flash Flooding in Kansas, May 17 to 18, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of the Kansas
  Turnpike.

- Severe weather potential continues for Monday afternoon and
  evening across the area with all hazards possible, though
  uncertainty in storm evolution persists.

- Warm and windy on Monday, with a cooldown arriving Tuesday.

- Shower and storm chances return Wednesday evening and last
  through the end of the week. Widespread severe weather is not
  expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight an
amplifying mid/upper wave traversing the Central Intermountain. At
the surface, low pressure resides in north central Kansas with the
associated dryline spanning through southwest Kansas into the
Oklahoma Panhandle and beyond.

Large-scale forcing from the approaching wave is expected to promote
the development of showers and storms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Increasing sfc/BL convergence along the dryline is
expected to provide the main focus for storm chances across the
forecast area, especially across central Kansas where the boundary
intersects a slow-moving cold front. Per this morning's discussion,
strong instability combined with 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear will
support the potential for supercells capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. We continue to see the potential for landspout
tornadoes as well due to the nearly-stationary cold front and modest
3CAPE values, though the overall tornado threat appears somewhat
lower owing to relatively high cloud bases. The tornado chance
may increase following the strengthening of the LLJ and
subsequent low- level shear after 7 PM, with the greatest
potential residing once again in central Kansas.

The potent shortwave is progged to translate eastward through the
Rockies and eject into the High/Central Plains on Monday. Short-
range models (NAM/RAP) continue to place the dryline across
southwest Kansas by afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the 30-40 kt
range oriented orthogonal to the boundary alongside warm-sector
buoyancy in excess of 3000 J/kg all support the potential for
discrete supercells capable of all hazards, including very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, considerable
uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and timing of this
scenario. The higher confidence resides with the latest short-term
models suggesting storms initiating along the slow-moving cold front
draped over central Kansas in the afternoon. This front will crash
to the southeast by late afternoon/early evening, which would likely
preclude the potential for discrete storms to fire off the dryline
and into portions of the forecast area (namely, areas west of the
Flint Hills). This solution would support a messier, linear storm
mode owing to the negatively-tilted trough promoting boundary-
parallel deep-layer shear. However, should slower solutions verify
and this southward crash occur later in the period, the window for
severe to significant severe weather would increase, particularly as
low-level shear increases with the arrival of the LLJ in the
evening. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of this
upcoming severe event.

In addition to this severe weather threat, a deepening surface low
alongside deep mixing will result in another day of strong south
winds on Monday. Sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range alongside
gusts to 45 mph are possible in south central KS and adjacent
counties, where a Wind Advisory was issued with this forecast cycle.
For now, the period of strongest winds appears to be mid-morning
through early evening prior to the arrival of the aforementioned
cold front.

Cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are expected to persist
through Thursday in the wake of Monday evening's cold front. We
could see residual rain chances across far southeast Kansas through
Tuesday within the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, chances for
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through the
end of the week as a handful of low-amplitude waves traverse the
central CONUS. Severe weather associated with these features appears
unlikely at this time. Additionally, increasing thicknesses and the
return of southerly winds are forecast to promote the return of high
temperatures in the 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Low clouds will continue to scatter out with rising cigs over
southeast Kansas this afternoon. Meanwhile strong south winds
will continue into the evening hours across the entire region.
A frontal boundary will become the focus for storms to initiate
over central Kansas during the evening hours where we have
PROB30s. Otherwise richer low level moisture will continue to
stream northward for late tonight into Monday morning which will
give way to low clouds mainly in the MVFR category.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong south winds sustained around 25-35 mph and gusting to 45
mph will continue through the afternoon hours today. Combined
with above normal temperatures and very low RH values, these
factors will result in very high grassland fire danger in areas
primarily west of Interstate 135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094-098.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
343 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
343 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. Large to
very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado
are possible with any storm that is able to develop, but most
locations will likely stay thunderstorm-free.

Strong south winds gusting up to 45 mph continue to encompass much
of central and eastern Kansas today. The strong winds combined with
warm and dry weather will support very high grassland fire danger
west of Interstate 135.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase Monday late afternoon
and evening, persisting into the overnight hours. Severe
thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible, along with locally heavy rainfall. There
remains some uncertainty on how this event will unfold. Please stay
tuned as we refine forecast details today and tonight.

Strong south winds gusting up to 45 mph will return to portions of
central, south central, and southeast Kansas on Monday.

Additional off-and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday through week's end, but widespread severe weather
is not expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening across central Kansas
and will likely be needed Monday across a majority of the area.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict