Hail in Wisconsin, June 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible
  early this morning, with locally heavy rainfall and small hail
  possible.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
  this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms are
  possible. Hail up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 60
  mph are the main threats from the strongest storms.

- A more summer-like pattern sets up for the end of the week
  into early next week with increasing moisture and temperatures
  before chances for storms return Sunday into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Thursday and most of
Friday with southerly return flow bringing near normal
temperatures in the 70s along with increasing moisture. A weak
shortwave may pass through late Friday and could lead to a few
showers and thunderstorms.

An upper ridge moves through the Upper Midwest for Saturday into
Sunday with warmer temperatures reaching into the 70s and 80s
with ever increasing moisture. Models have diverged for the end
of the weekend and into early next week. While there will be
increased chances for storminess as the upper ridge moves to the
east, timing and locations of the waves on the west side of the
ridge remain nebulous. Given the heat, increasing moisture, and
more of a summer pattern, strong to severe storms will be
possible somewhere from the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest heading into next week. PWATs look to reach 1.5" plus
during this time, which would be above the 90th percentile for
late June. This may lead to heavy rainfall at times, which is
certainly needed given the increasing drought conditions in the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Widely isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
across the Northland early this afternoon as an area of low
pressure sits overhead. Conditions range from VFR to IFR under
the stronger storms due to rainfall. This activity is expected
to persist through the afternoon and into early evening before
diminishing overnight. Brief reductions in visibility will be
possible should a shower or storm pass over an airfield.
Ceilings have been a bit more steady state thus far, but will
oscillate between broken and scattered at times. Heading into
tonight, areas of fog are expected to develop along with low
stratus. The highest chances for this are at DLH, HIB, and HYR.
IFR conditions will be possible if fog develops. Visibilities
are expected to improve to VFR Thursday morning, but MVFR
ceilings may linger in spots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Northeasterly winds expected today at 5 to 15 knots with gusts
to around 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect north of
Taconite Harbor, where winds could gust to 25 kts. Winds will
diminish to around 5 to 10 knots tonight. High pressure brings
variable winds at 10 knots or less for Thursday before turning
northeasterly for Friday at 5 to 15 knots, strongest near the
Twin Ports. Fog is possible tonight into Thursday morning, with
a 30% to 40% chance of visibilities less than one quarter mile.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
early evening. No strong or severe storms are currently
expected, but gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and heavy
downpours will be possible along with cloud-to-water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with
greatest coverage expected this afternoon and early evening.
Rainfall amounts will vary depending on where storms move with
amounts in the 0.10 to 0.40 inch range through tonight. Isolated
higher amounts to 0.50 to 0.75 inches will be possible in any
stronger storms. With abundant cloud cover and periods of
rainfall, afternoon RH values will remain well above 50% today.
Drier conditions arrive for Thursday and Friday with afternoon
RH values falling to around 40 to 45 percent with isolated areas
as low as 35 percent, mainly in the Arrowhead. Winds will
remain under 20 mph through the rest of the week outside of any
storms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

DISCUSSION...HA/BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA/BJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-251630-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

In northeast Minnesota isolated to scattered thunderstorms today
will produce heavy rainfall rates with locally an inch or more of
rainfall, but flooding is not anticipated. Some of the strongest
storms may produce pea size hail in northeast Minnesota.

In northwest Wisconsin, isolated strong to severe storms will
develop this afternoon with the strongest storms capable of
producing large hail up to one inch or quarter-sized, perhaps
slightly larger with the strongest storm. The risk level is 1 out
of 5, except in southern Price County where the risk level is 2
out 5.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

This weekend, increasing northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph over
western Lake Superior will pose a risk of hazardous swimming
conditions due to rip currents for the beaches of the Twin Ports,
strongest on Sunday.

The weather pattern turns hot, humid, and stormy next week with an
increasing risk for dangerous heat and strong to severe storms
next Sunday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-251630-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1126 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for parts of the north shore
north of Taconite HArbor due to strong northeast winds.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible (10 to 20 percent probability)
this afternoon and evening over western Lake Superior.

Tonight, there is a 30-40% chance of dense fog with visibilities
below 1 mile, through early Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Increasing northeast winds are Saturday and especially on Sunday.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Sunday through next
Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe Monday through
Tuesday.

JJM

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth