Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Virginia, January 24 to 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
649 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily
  around mid-day today through tomorrow (Sunday) night. All types
  of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are
  expected.

- The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or
  locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky
  state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice
  accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the
  Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East
  Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow
  accumulations will be more limited further south with ice
  accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern
  Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and
  ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with
  highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or
  falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The highly anticipated impactful almost country-wide winter storm
has formed to the west and will continue to strengthen as it
shifts eastward this morning. Troughing encompasses the entire
country with a closed upper low off of the Baja coast. This will
eventually phase with the flow when it swings up into Texas late
tonight. Additional pulses within the flow will sweep down from
Canada, bringing much lower heights aloft overhead early next
week. It will feel very much like winter with much below normal
temperatures persisting through the week due to troughing locked
in overhead and resurges of Arctic air sweeping down from Canada.

Though models show the initial shield of precipitation moving in
later this morning, the challenge to start will be dry air at the
surface. Once that is overcome, expect chances of precipitation to
increase throughout the day today. There won't be much of a
diurnal curve for some locations today with temperatures falling
at this time and not getting too much above that for the
afternoon. Many will start as snow mixed with other forms of
frozen precipitation, as air aloft and down to the surface will
briefly support mostly snow. As the inverted trough strengthens
and a warm nose aloft builds in from the south, is when things
begin to change and become more complicated. The later we get into
today, the flow from the south will strengthen. Coinciding with
that flow, winds over the Southern Appalachians will become
stronger. To further complicate things, descending air over the
mountains due in part to a strong wedge on the other side, will
warm those closest to the mountains, limiting the frozen
precipitation variety. We are fairly confident in that happening
with the the latest NAM still showing greater than 60 KT low level
flow. This has been persistent for days. Our hazards issued and
latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser
winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81
corridor. A portion of this area doesn't meet minor impacts,
even.

One potential hazard that may not be thought much of is the total
liquid precipitation from this storm and pure heavy rain
potential. What has generally been consistent much of the week is
total liquid precipitation of around 2 inches or more. Upslope
areas of parts of the plateau and from the GSMNP and south, depict
the potential of near 3 inches of liquid equivalent or more.
Though a lot of our area is in a drought, heavy precipitation in
a short period of time could pose some flooding impacts. WPC's ERO
from yesterday afternoon circles an area of MRGL risk of flash
flooding across our southern TN counties into Cherokee and Clay
counties in NC.

The time line of greatest impact will be near the start of the
system to around early Sunday when it will be coldest and frozen
precipitation chances the greatest. Thankfully with a consistent
warming trend being forecast Sunday, precipitation should change
over to rain during the day. However, the backside of the system
may change back to the frozen precipitation type Sunday night
into Monday morning when temperatures are expected to drastically
fall. This, paired with what fell earlier in the event, could
pose added hazardous travel early Monday. Highs are generally
expected to stay below 30. The system ends with time Monday,
finishing off over the higher terrain.

Caveats - There is still the chance that some will end up with
potentially less freezing rain accretion, for example, if
temperatures budge a bit a certain way, either due to southerly
flow, downslope warming, or with a combination of struggling cold
air. Recent CAMs try to show warmer temperatures than forecast
even later today. This would be a good thing to end up with more
rain than freezing rain. Snowfall totals haven't really
drastically changed in the last couple of forecasts with the
greatest amounts along the KY and WV borders, but like mentioned,
what could easily change is the amount of freezing rain or even
sleet. A small change in conditions or a certain factor from the
surface to above could mean everything.

As briefly touched in the first paragraph, cold and mostly dry
will dominate the rest of the week with strong high pressure
developing over Texas and remaining focused over the southeast
following that. Weak systems will be sent down with the shortwaves
from Canada with possible chances for wintery precipitation
for the northern part of the CWA mid to late week. Otherwise, dry
and cold. Very cold wind chills will become a threat with any
winds and gusts throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Messy period already beginning with ice pellets observed in
Chattanooga. Recent observations indicate frozen precipitation is
advancing up the TN valley currently, with radar indicating it
will reach the Tri-Cities over the next 2 hours. CIGs will
steadily deteriorate over the course of the day, with both VIS and
CIGs making trips to IFR territory. A transition to rain will
occur from south to north today and tonight, though higher
elevations will maintain FZRA longer. This evening, the LLJ will
strengthen steadily and bring LLWS over the region, especially
late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             37  31  45  18 /  80 100 100  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  35  30  44  18 /  80 100 100  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       34  29  43  16 /  90 100 100  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              37  28  45  18 /  80 100 100  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7
     PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-
     Hamilton-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-
     Roane-Sequatchie.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Johnson-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-
     Sullivan-Unicoi-Union.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Washington TN-West Polk.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
114 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-250615-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
114 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 /1214 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

....COMPLEX WINTER STORM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A storm system will approach the region later today, persisting
into tomorrow. As cold air moves into the region, impactful
wintry precipitation is forecast. A wintry mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain, and rain is expected across the region with
significant travel impacts expected Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. Impacts due to pure heavy rain and elevated
amounts from this system are possible, especially across the south
and along the Southern Appalachians. Please see the Ice Storm
Warning, Winter Storm Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

...STRONG MOUNTAIN WINDS...

Mountain wave winds are expected this evening through Sunday.
This will also result in warming temperatures across the foothills
with a quick changeover to rain near the western foothills of the
mountains. Please see the High Wind Warning for details.

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE LINGERING OF WINTERY
ACCUMULATION...

Water will refreeze on roads and elevated surface on Sunday night
into Monday morning with black ice, especially on secondary roads.

Very cold temperatures are expected behind this departing storm
system with low temperatures in the single digits on Monday night
through Tuesday morning with wind chill values as cold as -5 to
-15 degrees across the higher elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snow and/or ice accumulation will be needed
this weekend.