Texas, 2026

Drought in Texas, March 31, 2026

March 31, 2026 · NWS BRO · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

March 31, 2026, was a red-letter day for the southern tip of Texas in terms of drought. 79% at Exceptional (D4) conditions.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

March 31, 2026, was a red-letter day for the southern tip of Texas in terms of drought. Months of dry, top-five to ten warmest, low humidity, and breezy weather took its toll - and by the 31st, all areas were at Severe (D2) or higher, with 95% of the region at Extreme (D3) or higher, and a whopping 54.79% at Exceptional (D4) conditions. Soon after, on Easter Weekend, the worst drought in 13 years would begin to crack with the start of spring rains, which continued through at least the end of May.

Still, there were likely notable crop production/harvest losses in the Valley, and cattle herd production losses across the ranchlands, who had the longest duration of D3 and D4 conditions.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 11:42 PM CST, 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Monday, with early total rainfall estimates of 1-2 inches by Monday morning. * Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and Gulf waters.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 30, 11:42 PM CST, 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1242 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week
  improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Monday,
  with early total rainfall estimates of 1-2 inches by Monday
  morning.

* Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this
  weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and
  Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A much welcomed pattern change is finally arriving with the start
of April. Above normal temperatures and very breezy afternoons
continue through the remainder of the week before a cold front
arrives Saturday night into Sunday, offering up a 10-15 degree
cooler swing from late Easter weekend into early next week.

More importantly, aside from the break in the heat, rainfall is
looking more and more likely by the holiday weekend. The chance
for sea breeze convection returns mid to late week with low POPs
(10-20 percent), but at least some sign of life on radar and
hopefully in some rain gauges. A much better chance of rain is
taking place ahead of, with, and behind the frontal passage
Saturday into Monday with a weak coastal trough and surface low
hanging around, extending both instability and deeper moisture.
PWAT values near 1.8 to 1.9 inches arrive Saturday night into
Sunday, well above the 90th percentile for early April. In fact,
extreme forecast indices highlight the CWA for potentially
excessive rainfall Saturday night into Sunday night. There is
currently a 20 to 30 percent probability of rainfall above 1 inch
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon across most of
the region, with close to 50 percent probability from southern
Zapata to southern Starr counties. Any thunderstorm in this
atmosphere will be an efficient rainmaker and given the lack of
rainfall for well over a month to month and a half for some
locations, runoff and flash flood concerns may be warranted.

Long droughts in Texas upended by flooding rain is very well
documented, so this will continue to be monitored through the
week. There is plenty of time to clean and prepare drainage
ditches or canals and get any rain catching buckets or barrels
into place. The best chance of any severe weather will be Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light to moderate southeast winds and mostly clear skies prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds
overnight will increase and become breezy by mid-morning. Some
gusts around 25 knots or slightly higher will be possible in the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Southeasterly winds persist into the weekend with an enhanced
pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast increasing winds
each afternoon to SCEC and borderline SCA conditions. A cold front
late Saturday into Sunday brings northerly winds and potential
SCA conditions across the Gulf, as well as showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             86  71  87  72 /  30  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               89  68  92  69 /  20   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 93  72  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  70  97  70 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  73  79  73 /  30  10  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     85  69  86  70 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...63-KC

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Willacy

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Willacy forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.477, -97.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The March 31, 2026 Drought Monitor brought a small sliver of Exceptional (D4, highest level) Drought into western Inland Willacy, with Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) remaining in similar areas farther east compared with prior weeks. Unknown as of this writing were impacts on Willacy's known dryland crop production; estimates may be provided later this summer.

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The March 31, 2026 Drought Monitor removed the last of Severe (D2) Drought in central Kenedy County and replaced it with Extreme (level 3 of 4, D3) conditions. Unknown as of this writing were impacts on cattle ranches, including the King, Kenedy, and Yturria ranch, in the county. Herd impact estimates may be provided later this summer.

Drought, Coastal Kenedy

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Coastal Kenedy forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The March 31, 2026 Drought Monitor removed the last of Severe (D2) Drought in coastal Kenedy County and replaced it with Extreme (level 3 of 4, D3) conditions, except for the northeast corner.

Drought, Kenedy Island

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Kenedy Island forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The March 31, 2026 Drought Monitor removed the last of Severe (D2) Drought along Padre Island National Seashore (barrier island, Kenedy County) and replaced it with Extreme (level 3 of 4, D3) conditions, except for the northeast corner.

Drought, Southern Hidalgo County

When
March 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
Where
Southern Hidalgo County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Persistent dryness, heat, wind, and low humidity during the final week of March were enough to push Exceptional (D4) Drought into a large portion of the crop-rich sections of southern Hidalgo County. Extreme (D3) conditions continued from Weslaco to Mercedes, and west of McAllen. Unknown as of this writing are dollar damage/production losses to citrus and dryland crops that were struggling; planting had been delayed until rains came - which happened less than a week later.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327581, 1327582, 1327583, 1327584, 1327589.