Elevated southerly winds continued to transport moisture across the Mid-South. Strong daytime heating yielded plentiful sunshine, driving instability values to around 1000 J/kg across north Mississippi.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Elevated southerly winds continued to transport moisture across the Mid-South. Strong daytime heating yielded plentiful sunshine, driving instability values to around 1000 J/kg across north Mississippi. Though convective coverage remained sparse, an isolated cell managed to tap into the available instability just before sunset.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 5:35 PM CST, 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts of at least 40 mph are expected through this evening. - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall starting on Thursday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Mild conditions continue today in the midst of a warming pattern with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Surface southerlies will be somewhat strong today owing to a tightening pressure gradient across the region, especially in the Mississippi River Delta where wind gusts are expected to exceed 30 mph through this afternoon. HREF/NBM seem to have had unrealistically low probabilities of us meeting our Wind Advisory thresholds today, but multiple sites in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have already reached our criteria. NQA/PAH VADs from this morning displayed 1-2 km winds well in excess of 40 mph. With plenty of sunshine in northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel, these winds are expected to mix to the surface. Therefore, we have issued a Wind Advisory through this 6 p.m. CDT this evening for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel. Moisture is also increasing as higher dew points are pulled north off the Gulf. By early this afternoon, uncapped MLCAPE values are expected to reach anywhere from 750 - 1000 J/kg across northern Mississippi. Isolated, convective showers are possible within this region with a low (20%) chance of thunder that should dissipate by sunset. The broader zonal flow over the CONUS will continue through Wednesday along with southerly surface winds and high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s. An extension of the subtropical jet stream will enter the plains and amplify into shortwave trough into early Thursday, traveling northeast into the Midwest. Much of the core flow associated with this system will remain north of the Mid-South, but enough upper lift will overspread the region to produce isolated/scattered rain showers through Thursday afternoon. A second trough, originating from the polar westerlies off the west coast, will swing in behind Thursday's trough. Similar to the first one, much of the better dynamics will remain well north of the Mid-South with the main driver of rainfall being a frontal passage. Since the front will sweep through the region in a matter of hours and no upper support for much rain ahead of the boundary, QPF values may be on the lighter side. Recent model trends support this as QPF amounts have steadily decreased in the last several forecast cycles, down to 1" - 1.75" from 2" - 3" just a couple days ago. So, at this time anywhere from 1" - 1.5" seems reasonable, but this forecast may change more in future forecast cycles. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible along the front, but severe weather is not expected at this time due to a lack of both instability and shear. Confidence has increased that the front will clear the region by Sunday morning, with cooler and drier weather behind. Temperatures on Sunday will only climb into the 50s and low 60s with Monday's morning lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Into next week, ensembles are in agreement that the region will be juxtaposed within a split stream pattern with northwesterly upper flow to our north, and zonal, subtropical flow to our south. This will effectively stagnate the surface pattern with high pressure expected to remain into early next week, keeping the dry, cool conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 MVFR ceilings will develop over north Mississippi tonight, mainly impacting TUP. There is a less than 30% chance of the MVFR CIGs reaching MEM, so kept all other terminals VFR. A few showers can't be ruled out tomorrow across the Mid-South. However, coverage will be too little to warrant TAF mention. Otherwise, expect winds to increase after sunrise with gusts approaching 25 kts in the afternoon. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future, as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 35%. Elevated 20ft winds are expected today across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with winds approaching 25 - 30 mph. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1"-1.5" are expected starting Wednesday, and are to last through Saturday, providing some relief to our ongoing drought conditions. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...ANS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
616 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
MSZ021-022-010000-
Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-
616 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT YALOBUSHA AND NORTHWESTERN
CALHOUN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...
At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grenada, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Water Valley, Coffeeville, Velma, Spearman, Bryant, Benwood, Tyson,
Gums, Pine Valley, and Ellard.
This includes Interstate 55 in Mississippi near mile marker 215.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3387 8977 3390 8977 3390 8986 3419 8971
3419 8966 3407 8936 3387 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 35KT 3384 8974
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SchlessigerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
MSZ002-013-014-021-022-010030-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-
649 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LAFAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN
YALOBUSHA...NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...
At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Water Valley, moving north at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Water Valley, Holly Springs National Forest, Cambridge,
Harmontown, Etta, Springdale, Burgess, Tula, Denmark, Pinedale,
Velma, Laws Hill, Paris, Abbeville, Taylor, Malone, Keel, Poolville,
and Delay.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3407 8973 3464 8964 3448 8908 3438 8917
3438 8925 3428 8925 3396 8952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 198DEG 36KT 3412 8961
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SchlessigerThe Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 120 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:55 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A singular, large tree fell onto a home near the Water Valley city limits. In the photo, there were other trees around appearing unharmed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1326533.