Drought in Oklahoma, March 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Severe storms are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
  primary hazards will be damaging winds and large hail. A few
  tornadoes are possible late Wednesday.

- Additional fire weather conditions and storm chances will be
  possible during the end of the week into the weekend.&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As of 1 AM, the surface analysis indicated a dryline positioned
across west-central Kansas to west of Beaver to west of Amarillo. A
quasi-stationary cold front also extended across Nebraska. Mid-level
flow remains quasi-zonal with subtle embedded shortwaves flowing
within the mean flow. Despite a few heatbursts observed overnight,
which warranted a Wind Advisory across parts of northern/central
Oklahoma, and associated drops in relative humidity, dewpoint
temperatures in these areas are recovering relatively quickly.
Highest wind gusts within the past few hours was 68 mph at Clinton
decaying convection and heat bursts probable factors. Air
temperatures at this hour are remarkably warm and range from the
upper 70's over northwest and west- central Oklahoma to mid 60's
over southeastern Oklahoma. The Wind Advisory may need to be
extended through late morning across parts of central Oklahoma,
and will watch trends.

The H500 jet max is prog'd to reach the four corners region this
afternoon, and without any other significant steering flow, the
front is expected to move very slowly this afternoon. Latest CAMS
suggest by 4PM, the front will be positioned near Sweetwater -
Fairview - Blackwell and a weak surface low will migrate southward
over the TX panhandle. Ahead of the front, breezy south-southwest
winds at 20-30 mph (gusts to 40 mph) and warm temperatures are
expected. By late afternoon, dewpoint temperatures are expected to
rise into the upper 50's to low 60's. Elevated fire weather conditions
are expected across much of the FA.

The 00Z models still differ with the degree of instability, ranging
anywhere from 1500 J/kg to 3500 J/kg by this evening, and the HREF
provides a mean CAPE value near 2100 J/kg. With inverted-V soundings
and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, damaging winds (60 to 70
mph) and large hail (up to half-dollars) are the hazards of concern
for storms that develop ahead of these boundaries. CAMS show dominant
convection developing near the surface low and ahead of the dryline,
which would impact primarily parts of western OK and western north
Texas between 4-7 PM. However, CI is also possible ahead of the quasi-
cold front (farther east) but coverage and timing of this is less certain.
If storms hold together, would anticipate arrival into parts of central
Oklahoma within the 9PM - 12 AM time frame.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As of 1 AM, the surface analysis indicated a dryline positioned
across west-central Kansas to west of Beaver to west of Amarillo. A
quasi-stationary cold front also extended across Nebraska. Mid-level
flow remains quasi-zonal with subtle embedded shortwaves flowing
within the mean flow. Despite a few heatbursts observed overnight,
which warranted a Wind Advisory across parts of northern/central
Oklahoma, and associated drops in relative humidity, dewpoint
temperatures in these areas are recovering relatively quickly.
Highest wind gusts within the past few hours was 68 mph at Clinton
decaying convection and heat bursts probable factors. Air
temperatures at this hour are remarkably warm and range from the
upper 70's over northwest and west- central Oklahoma to mid 60's
over southeastern Oklahoma. The Wind Advisory may need to be
extended through late morning across parts of central Oklahoma,
and will watch trends.

The H500 jet max is prog'd to reach the four corners region this
afternoon, and without any other significant steering flow, the
front is expected to move very slowly this afternoon. Latest CAMS
suggest by 4PM, the front will be positioned near Sweetwater -
Fairview - Blackwell and a weak surface low will migrate southward
over the TX panhandle. Ahead of the front, breezy south-southwest
winds at 20-30 mph (gusts to 40 mph) and warm temperatures are
expected. By late afternoon, dewpoint temperatures are expected to
rise into the upper 50's to low 60's. Elevated fire weather conditions
are expected across much of the FA.

The 00Z models still differ with the degree of instability, ranging
anywhere from 1500 J/kg to 3500 J/kg by this evening, and the HREF
provides a mean CAPE value near 2100 J/kg. With inverted-V soundings
and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, damaging winds (60 to 70
mph) and large hail (up to half-dollars) are the hazards of concern
for storms that develop ahead of these boundaries. CAMS show dominant
convection developing near the surface low and ahead of the dryline,
which would impact primarily parts of western OK and western north
Texas between 4-7 PM. However, CI is also possible ahead of the quasi-
cold front (farther east) but coverage and timing of this is less certain.
If storms hold together, would anticipate arrival into parts of central
Oklahoma within the 9PM - 12 AM time frame.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The aforementioned cold front over northern Oklahoma retreats
northward as large-scale ascent increases over the region with
the approach of the large scale trough. At the surface, winds
return to the south and enhanced return flow will raise dewpoint
temperatures into the low/mid-60's across much of the FA. Despite
abundant mid/high-level cloud-cover, high temperatures are expected
to rise into the 80's with near 90 deg over western north Texas.

As the trough approaches ejects from the four corners region and
the leading 50-60kt jet max (H500) reaches the panhandles region,
the dryline is advances to at least the 100th meridian (and possibly
far western Oklahoma) by afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorm
development is anticipated by late afternoon across western Oklahoma
and adjacent north Texas with the arrival of stronger upper flow
and near the dryline. Storm mode may be a hybrid of discrete and
quasi-linear storms initially before growing upscale and marching
into central Oklahoma on Wednesday night. Significant damaging
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible, especially over
southwest OK and western north TX. In addition, large hail greater
than 2 inches in diameter and a few tornadoes are also possible.
The strongest cores could produce 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall.

Shower/storm activity is expected to exit the FA on Thursday
morning, with clearing skies early and warm temperatures expected
that afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Another round of showers/storms is likely by Friday evening and
during the overnight hours. Some storms may be strong to severe
with widespread beneficial rainfall expected into Saturday for
some areas. Cooler temperatures return over the weekend, with
a warming trend by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Breezy south/southwest winds and mostly VFR conditions are
expected. Winds shift to the north at KWWR with a frontal passage
mid-morning and at KPNC by late afternoon. LLWS is possible this
morning and again tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible
over northern/western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late
afternoon into the evening hours with damaging wind gusts and
large hail possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  65  84  59 /  10  50  40  90
Hobart OK         90  61  86  55 /  20  30  50  80
Wichita Falls TX  90  65  88  61 /  10  20  40  90
Gage OK           86  48  80  49 /  20  40  40  50
Ponca City OK     88  58  82  57 /  20  50  50 100
Durant OK         85  65  85  63 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01