Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
550 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- High temperatures in the 80s expected areawide through the weekend
  into next week across most locations.

 - We will be looking at a pattern shift as we enter the upcoming
   workweek more conducive for showers and thunderstorms.

 - Severe weather may be possible on Wednesday across the
   northwest half of the ArkLaTex with increased rain chances
   areawide continuing thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Southeast winds around 10 mph prevailing areawide this morning as a
surface high shifts east of the region. Warm air returning from the
gulf will allow temperatures to climb into the into the lower 80s
this afternoon. Moisture to gradually increase overnight into Sunday
with dewpoint values in the low to mid 40s this morning to surge
into the upper 50s by Sunday afternoon. Increased moisture will help
in decreasing the wildfire threat as we move into Sunday. However,
breezy conditions across east and northeast Texas could offset any
gains from the slight increase in moisture with a minor wildfire
threat remaining.

A weak frontal boundary across Oklahoma into Arkansas, combined with
some mid-level forcing within a northwest flow regime aloft, could
allow for a few showers overnight across these areas.

Upper-ridge will exit the region to the east on Monday setting
the stage for a pattern shift that will persist through most of
next week. Southwest flow aloft will help to generally destabilize
the atmosphere ahead of an low approaching the Central Plains. At
the surface, a frontal boundary will move east into northeast
Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Wednesday. SPC has posted a
15% probability for severe thunderstorms across the northwest half
of the ArkLaTex from Wednesday into Wednesday night with the
passage of the upper-trough. Large hail, damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Front to lift back north into Oklahoma and central Arkansas by late
next week with another axis of heavy rainfall expected to set up
along the boundary Friday into Friday night. Additional rounds of
convection are expected along and north of the I-30 corridor through
Friday night. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail over all terminals with mostly
clear skies this afternoon. This should continue through the
overnight hours until a lower cloud deck develops from the south
beginning around 01/09z. KLFK will be the first to drop below VFR
due to both low ceilings and fog. Recent model runs have low
clouds moving as far north as I-20 in East TX and Northwest LA by
daybreak tomorrow. Fog development is more uncertain, especially
for southwestern terminals due to winds staying around 5 kts. Any
fog/low cigs that manage to develop should clear through the
morning tomorrow. Sunday afternoon should stay mostly sunny with
S/SE winds of 5-10 kts. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1008 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming
weekend. However, please continue to relay information on
wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first
responders protect life and property.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  81  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  79  49  78 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  57  82  54  81 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  52  80  51  80 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  58  83  56  80 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  56  83  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  56  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57