Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1107 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Rain/storm chances increase overnight but limited in coverage
  becoming more widespread late Sunday.

- Our wet trend will continue next week with a potential for two
  more weather systems bringing rain/storms into our area.

- A weather system on Wednesday could bring a severe risk across
  southeast Oklahoma

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The first of potentially 3 weather systems will be coming through
increasing rain chances across parts of our forecast area during the
near into short term periods.  However, rain coverage will be more
limited and spotty across central through southeastern Oklahoma in
the near term period where POPs are in place.

Our flow aloft is a typical late Winter split-flow pattern with a
long-wave trough in the polar jet over much of the northern U.S.
while the Southern Plains remains under the warmer weaker ridged
subtropical flow jet.  In the lower-levels a surface cold front was
stretched across Kansas with southerly flow enhanced by a low-level
jet advecting gulf moisture across eastern Texas into Oklahoma.  The
increasing moisture under sunny afternoon skies will continue to
destabilize the air although staying well capped for any surface
based convection. Warm air advection had produced a few earlier rain
showers/weak elevated storms and RAP guidance continues to show
strong isentropic ascent through the mid-levels on the 305 K surface
through the afternoon. As a result will maintain low POPs through
this afternoon across central through southeast Oklahoma mainly east
and south of the I-44 corridor for a potential of isolated elevated
convection and/or showers. However this potential will decrease in
time (15-20%) as the low-level jet continues weakening along with
the strongest isentropic forcing both shifting more eastward as well
as CAM guidance.  A system moving through the polar jet will be
pushing the aforementioned cold front into northern Oklahoma this
evening and stalling overnight near the I-40 corridor.  Although
staying dry along the front, isentropic ascent from warm advection
just ahead of the front could reinitiate some elevated showers
and/or convection across central through southeast Oklahoma
generally east and south of I-44 through sunrise Sunday.  Not
expecting anything severe with any of this elevated convection as
weak MUCAPE instability should limit any organization.  However,
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
sufficient D-CAPE values could support strong wind gusts and/or
small hail. NBM has a good handle on temperatures this afternoon as
we will stay unseasonably warm with much of our area seeing 80s
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Our nearly stalled cold front is expected to linger along the I-40
corridor Sunday then finally push into southern Oklahoma to just
south of the Red River on Monday as reinforcing colder air surges in
from the northeast.  NBM a bit warm-biased with the colder air so
used a slightly cooler CONSMOS guidance for Sunday's MaxT.  Much of
northern Oklahoma will see a strong 20-25 degree cooldown from the
previous day.  A series of vort max disturbances propagating
downstream through the mid-level ridging across southeast Kansas
could impact northcentral Oklahoma while still seeing potential
ascent over the frontal boundary in the mid-levels along several
isentropic surfaces. As a result will maintain elevated
showers/storm POPs keeping them along and east of the I-35 corridor
through late Sunday morning into the afternoon hours.  POP coverage
becomes more widespread across our area and highest (up to 50%) by
late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as our stalled frontal
boundary makes a final push southward into northern Texas
potentially tapping into surface-based moisture.  A series of vort
max's will also be increasing across our mid-levels keeping POPs in
the forecast for Sunday night.  Both surface-based and elevated
instability still expected to be weak for any organized severe
storms, but still could see a few strong storms especially along the
frontal boundary which could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Although post-frontal on Monday much of the cooler air will linger
across our northern CWA as north winds weaken becoming light in the
afternoon.  Our area will be dry and nearly POP free Monday
afternoon on with south winds gradually returning overnight for
moisture recovery before our next weather system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

By Tuesday, the shortwave will be approaching the Southern Plains
with strong southwesterly flow and increasing ascent and moisture
aloft. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis with a sharp dryline near the
100th meridian will give way to warm moist advection into Oklahoma.
Shower and storm chances will increase through the day Tuesday with
a chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms possible,
especially along the frontal boundary. The shortwave will pass
across the Central Plains Wednesday. Additional shower and storm
chances (some strong to severe) will be possible, with the best
chances in southeast Oklahoma where instability and moisture will be
the greatest.

Another trough at the end of the work week will bring a cutoff low
near Baja Cali with increased chances for sub-tropical moisture and
ascent across the Southern Plains. Evolution of this low remains
uncertain with a few models being more progressive with the track of
the low, while others keep the system stationary for some time. This
will play a key role in the timing and location of where the
greatest precipitation chances will be later this week and even
heading into the first week of March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Isolated showers will still be possible overnight, but
probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. But chance for
showers increase through the day on Sunday and have PROB30 groups
for showers or storms in most TAFs later in the period. A cold
front will slowly move south through the area shifting winds to
north/northeasterly and winds will become gusty in the mid-morning
hours. MVFR and even locally IFR ceilings are expected to develop
Sunday evening, especially in north central Oklahoma including
KPNC and KSWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  70  46  67 /  20  20  50  20
Hobart OK         52  71  43  68 /  10  10  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  58  81  53  77 /  20  10  40  10
Gage OK           41  60  33  61 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     43  55  39  59 /  10  40  50  30
Durant OK         58  79  57  78 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26