The lack of rainfall during winter 2025/2026 resulted in a continuation of drought conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to begin March. D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) was common to start March, with a small area of Exceptional Drought (D4) across the Brush Country.
Every event with a place to put it; 15 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
The lack of rainfall during winter 2025/2026 resulted in a continuation of drought conditions across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to begin March. D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) was common to start March, with a small area of Exceptional Drought (D4) across the Brush Country. Additionally, the area saw deepening/expansion of these categories and the month we on. From the last week in February to the first week of March, D4 (Exceptional Drought) increased across 8% of the area from 18% to 26%, and the combination of D2 to D4 increased from 91 to 97% of the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:32 PM CST, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1032 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Key Messages - Mainly dry weather and breezy to windy conditions continue to lead to some fire weather concerns each afternoon. - Temperatures warm to near 10-15 degrees above average by the middle of this upcoming week. - Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely by the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Much of the forecast for Deep South Texas into next weekend remains the same as previous updates, with mostly dry weather along with breezy to windy southeasterly winds, leading to some fire weather concerns each afternoon. Ridging aloft continues into the beginning of next week and weak mid-level disturbances embedded within the subtropical jet result in a slightly tightened pressure gradient across the CWA Sunday and Monday, with afternoon gusts up to around 20-25 mph possible. The gradient tightens further by Tuesday, increasing afternoon gusts up to 20-30 mph, or greater, into the remainder into the later parts of the week as troughing aloft develops surface low pressure systems passing over the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and over the Northern Plains on Thursday. There may be a brief break to this pattern next weekend with the possibility of increased rain chances as recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF portray a stronger mid/upper level deepening over the western US. As freeze-cured fuels remain abundant within the moderate-severe drought across the region, there are some fire weather concerns each afternoon, especially over western portions of the Brush Country and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Yet, concerns are limited and Fire Danger Statement conditions are likely to be borderline as 20 foot winds are be a bit too weak through Monday afternoon while increasing onshore southeasterly winds result in slightly elevated relative humidity values by Tuesday afternoon. However, will continue to monitor as forecast elements may change. Regardless, refraining from outdoor burning and being very cautious of flames are strongly recommended. A slight warming trend brings temperatures to about 10-15 degrees above average by Tuesday, with highs in the 90s further west gradually expanding eastward to as far east as I-69 E, perhaps even approaching coastal areas later in the week. Inland areas further east rise to the mid/upper 80s while temperatures along the immediate Gulf coast reach into the mid 70s. Overnight temperatures fall to the 60s region-wide, possibly warming to near 70 F across portions of the RGV by Tuesday night. A low risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon. Risks are likely to increase by the middle of the week as southeasterly winds enhance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Light southeasterly winds continue overnight as MVFR ceilings develop over KHRL and KMFE, possibly KBRO as well, by around 09Z, before increasing back to VFR by Sunday afternoon as breezy southeasterly winds return. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) continue through Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely each afternoon beginning Tuesday, particularly across the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf Waters (0-20 NM), where a locally enhanced pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh winds along with moderate (3-6 feet) seas over the Gulf Waters (0-60 NM). There is a low (15-30%) chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday and possibly a low to medium (20-40%) chance next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 67 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 68 77 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions continued across a portion of central and southern Jim Hogg County, with D3 (Extreme) elsewhere, through the 2nd.
Through March 2nd, A small pocket of D4 (Exceptional Drought) was present across western Brooks County, with the remainder of the county at D3 (Extreme).
From March 1-2, D3 (Extreme Drought) was present over all but the northwest corer of Zapata County, with a sliver of D2 (Severe) conditions holding on to begin March.
Extreme (D3) Drought covered all of Starr County to begin March 2026.
Through March 16, most of Southern Hidalgo County was under a D3 (Extreme Drought) with the exception of the east-southeastern parts, which held on at Severe (D2) conditions.
From March 1-16, all of Northern Hidalgo County was under a D3 (Extreme Drought).
Through March 23, the western half of Inland Kenedy County was under D3 (Extreme Drought) conditions with the eastern half of the county under D2 (Severe Drought) conditions.
Through March 2, western Inland Willacy County remained at Severe (D2) conditions, with D1 (Moderate) conditions elsewhere.
Through March 16, all of inland Cameron County was under a D2 (Severe Drought)with the exception of northeastern sections near Arroyo City, which remained at D1 (Moderate).
Through March 10, D2 (Severe Drought) was present over all of Coastal Kenedy County with the exception of the extreme northeastern section. D2 conditions would overspread that northeast sliver between March 17 and 23; status quo from this would continue through the 23rd.
Through March 16, all of Coastal Cameron County with the exception of the northeastern part was under a D2 (Severe Drought). By March 17-March 23, all of Coastal Cameron County was under a D2 (Severe Drought).
Through March 10, D2 (Severe Drought) was present over all of the Kenedy County barrier island with the exception of the extreme northeastern section. D2 conditions would overspread that northeast sliver between March 17 and 23.
Through March 16, all of the Cameron County barrier island with the exception of the northeastern part was under a D2 (Severe Drought). By March 17-March 23, all of the Cameron County barrier island was under a D2 (Severe Drought).
Beginning on March 3, D2 (Severe Drought) developed in northern coastal Willacy County, and continued through Through March 16, before spreading to cover all of coastal Willacy County. These conditions would continue through March 23rd.
Beginning on March 3, D2 (Severe Drought) developed in northern section of the Willacy County barrier island, and continued through Through March 16, before spreading to cover all of the Willacy barrier island. These conditions would continue through March 23rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1323479, 1323481, 1323490, 1323504, 1323505, 1323687, 1323688, 1323689, 1323690, 1323692, 1323705, 1327492, 1327494, 1323697, 1327493.