D2 and D3 drought conditions continued or developed across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during March.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
D2 and D3 drought conditions continued or developed across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA during March.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 6:00 PM CST, 6 hours earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of Highway 380 this weekend. - Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through at least Friday. Some severe storms may be possible. The potential for flooding may increase towards the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Weekend) Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 This morning's round of showers across our northeast have mostly dissipated, though we'll maintain a very low chance (10-20%) for isolated showers near the Red River through the afternoon. Otherwise, warm and breezy weather is expected with afternoon highs reaching into the 80s and southerly winds between 10-20 mph with gusts between 20-25 mph. Low humidity, breezy winds, and above normal temperatures will result in an elevated wildfire threat across our western zones this afternoon. A weak cold front will slide towards the Red River tonight but will likely stall prior to reaching the forecast area. However, the boundary will serve as a focus for the development of a few showers which may skirt our northern zones late tonight into early Sunday morning. Similar weather is expected on Sunday, with breezy winds, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and persistent low rain chances along the Red River near the stalled front. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 The aforementioned cold front may attempt to slide a bit further south Sunday night into Monday morning which will bring another opportunity for isolated to scattered showers to portions of North Texas. The front will then retreat north as an upper level trough and surface low deepen near the Four Corners Region/Eastern Rockies during the day Monday, with rain-free and warm conditions expected for the rest of the day. The surface low will eject from the lee of the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday, sending a cold front southward towards the region. Winds will become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. Marginally low humidity is currently forecast west of the I-35 corridor (around 30-40%), which should keep the fire weather threat below elevated levels. However, given the breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry fuels, wildfires would be difficult to contain should any start. The cold front is slated to move into the region Tuesday night or perhaps into Wednesday, with showers and storms expected to develop along and ahead of the front. The front may become washed out shortly after entering our forecast area, and it's unclear if this will have any implications on our storm chances on Wednesday. For now, have not made any changes to the NBM which keeps PoPs associated with this system rather broad-brushed through Wednesday night. As far as the severe weather potential goes, it does appear we'll have sufficient instability and deep layer shear with marginally steep lapse rates to support at least a low threat for strong to severe storms. Forcing may be lacking though (especially if the front washes out), which could keep the threat more isolated. Looking ahead to the later portions of the week, we'll have the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms as additional systems move through the CONUS late in the week and into the weekend. Each of these rounds could be accompanied by a threat for strong to severe storms. Additionally, depending on the rainfall that occurs with each round of showers and storms, we'll have to monitor the potential for flooding. There is a strong signal amongst ensemble members that our active weather will continue through next weekend and potentially beyond, so ensure you're keeping up with the forecast throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 South winds of 15 to 20 kt should drop to 8-10 kt in the next hour or so as low level flow partially decouples. A modest 35 kt low level jet will develop overnight, eventually ushering in a deck of stratocumulus Sunday morning. Confidence in cigs reaching the Metroplex has increased, but only high enough at this time to add a TEMPO group for MVFR 12-16Z Sunday. Higher confidence for Central Texas experiencing low cigs has warranted the addition of a prevailing MVFR group at KACT 11-15Z Sunday. Conditions will improve to VFR at all airports late Sunday morning, followed by south winds around 15kt with gusts of 25kt likely in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 81 59 80 / 10 10 10 10 Waco 57 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 81 55 78 / 20 10 10 10 Denton 56 80 56 79 / 20 20 10 10 McKinney 58 79 57 78 / 10 10 10 10 Dallas 61 82 59 81 / 10 10 10 10 Terrell 57 81 55 80 / 10 10 10 10 Corsicana 58 83 58 82 / 0 10 0 0 Temple 57 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 56 83 56 82 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...30/MB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 and D3 drought conditions occurred across Lamar County for the entire month.
D2 and D3 drought conditions occurred across Delta County for the entire month.
D2 and D3 drought conditions occurred across Hopkins County for the entire month.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Rains County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the eastern part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Van Zandt County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the eastern part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Henderson County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the eastern part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Anderson County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in parts of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Freestone County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in parts of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Navarro County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the southeast part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Leon County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the far northeast part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Robertson County for the entire month. Near the end of the month, conditions in the western part of the county worsened to D3.
D2 and D3 drought conditions occurred across Milam County for the entire month.
D2 drought conditions occurred across Limestone County for the entire month.
D2 drought conditions occurred across the eastern half of Hunt County for the entire month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1319584, 1319585, 1319586, 1319588, 1319590, 1319592, 1319594, 1319595, 1319596, 1319597, 1319598, 1319599, 1319600, 1319601.