Heat in Texas, June 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon with triple
  digit heat indices.

- An unsettled pattern with multiple rounds of rain/storms are
  expected over the next several days; severe storms and heavy
  rainfall are possible on tonight and Monday nights.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast this upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A mesoscale convective complex (MCS) continues to move eastward
across Kansas early this morning. The southern edge of this
complex and its associated outflow boundary will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across far north central
Oklahoma.

Hotter weather is expected this afternoon as the low-level
thermal ridge expands eastward and strengthens ahead of an
approaching cold front. High temperatures are forecast to range
from the low 90s (southeast) to low 100s deg F (west) with triple
digit heat indices.

By this afternoon, the cold front is forecast to advance into
northern Oklahoma. The air mass ahead of the cold front is
forecast to become highly unstable (~3000 to 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
with modest vertical wind shear (~30 to 35 knots of effective
bulk shear), which is an environment sufficient for strong to
severe thunderstorms. Low-covergence along the cold front will
likely be sufficient for convection initiation by late afternoon
into the early evening.

Initial thunderstorms will likely be discrete with supercell
characteristics that will have a threat for large hail (at least
up to golf balls), damaging wind gusts (up to 70 mph), and a very
low tornado risk. With time, upscale growth/consolidation into
clusters of thunderstorms is expected. Heavy rainfall/flooding may
become an increasing hazard overnight as a strengthening low-
level jet will favor continued redevelopment of elevated, training
thunderstorms.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Monday's weather will be highly dependent on how far south the
effective, convectively-reinforced cold front advances Sunday
night into Monday morning. Currently, it appears the front will be
somewhere between I-40 and the Red River--but forecast
uncertainty is relatively high as it will depend on how
widespread thunderstorm coverage is tonight.

There will be a north to south temperature gradient with much
cooler weather north of the front Monday afternoon with highs in
the low to mid 80s deg F. South of the front, temperatures will
rise back into the 90s deg F.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in close proximity
to the front/remnant boundary during the day Monday. Increasing
ascent from an approaching wave and a strengthening low-level jet
Monday night will likely further increase shower/thunderstorm
coverage near and even north of the front. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible along with a threat for heavy
rainfall/flooding.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late
Tuesday into Tuesday night as another shortwave trough embedded in
the northwest flow approaches the Southern Plains. There will be
a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially across
northwest Oklahoma, and a threat for heavy rainfall/flooding.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Northwest to west-northwest flow will continue to persist across
the Southern Plains through at least Friday with a mid-level ridge
remaining quasi-stationary across the southwest U.S into northern
Mexico.

With northwest flow aloft, an active weather pattern will
continue as embedded shortwaves within the flow move across the
Plains. As these waves pass by, there will be ongoing chances for
showers and thunderstorms as MCSs and/or effective cold fronts
advance southward. The highest chance for showers and
thunderstorms will generally be in the overnight/early morning
hours. With respect to location, the highest chances will be
across northern Oklahoma with decreasing chances with southward
extent. These complexes of thunderstorms and their effective,
convectively-reinforced cold fronts should result in seasonable to
slightly below normal temperatures.

By the late into the upcoming weekend into next week,
deterministic and ensemble data indicate a mid-level ridge may
strengthen to our east. This would result in hotter and drier
weather across the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue through most of the afternoon across
all sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
into Sunday, as will restrictions to ceilings and visibilities
with this activity. A frontal boundary will shift the winds to the
east-northeast by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  86  68  87 /  60  40  90  40
Hobart OK         72  90  68  91 /  40  40  70  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  94  72  95 /  30  30  50  10
Gage OK           66  84  64  88 /  40  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     67  80  65  83 /  40  20  70  40
Durant OK         78  92  76  91 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     015>027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
809 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

OKZ013-019-020-026-211345-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-Noble OK-
809 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Lincoln,
southeastern Noble, northeastern Logan and Payne Counties through 845
AM CDT...

At 809 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles southwest of Morrison to 3 miles west
of Lake Carl Blackwell. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Perkins, Langston, Yale, Morrison, Glencoe, Tryon,
Ripley, Coyle, Mulhall, Lake Carl Blackwell, Lake Mcmurtry, Quay, and
Ingalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9703 3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682
      3616 9682 3616 9662 3615 9662 3579 9711
      3608 9743 3639 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 308DEG 23KT 3625 9708 3613 9728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
847 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

OKZ020-026-211415-
Payne OK-Lincoln OK-
847 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Lincoln
and southeastern Payne Counties through 915 AM CDT...

At 847 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles west of Quay to near Ripley to near
Perkins. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cushing, Perkins, Yale, Ripley, Agra, Quay, Avery, and Ingalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 9680 3600 9707 3606 9696 3617 9682
      3616 9682 3616 9662 3592 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 280DEG 24KT 3614 9678 3605 9689 3599 9707

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT