Tornado and Flash Flooding in Missouri, June 21 to 22, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
637 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk through tonight across the
  entire area with multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Primary
  risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary risk
  for a few tornadoes.

- A Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive
  Rainfall risk through Monday morning. A Flood Watch is in
  effect through 7 AM Monday morning. Widespread rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with localized corridors up to 5
  inches.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through next week,
  with the highest chances (30-60%) on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight:
Now that the morning convective complex has moved off to our
east, we are closely monitoring the mesoscale setup for this
afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s
as of 2 pm, with low 70s dewpoints. Highs will top out in the
mid to upper 80s over the next few hours with gusty south-
southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph. Currently it appears we are
still a couple hours away from convective initiation, which
according to the CAM models should develop along or just south
of the cold front, which is currently draped from near
Benton(KRAW) west-southwest to near Iola(KK88). The environment
will favor supercell development initially, with deep layer
shear around 40 knots in the vicinity of ample instability
(MUCAPE 2000-2500+ J/kg). Steep mid-level lapse rates in this
setup suggests initial supercells to pose a large hail threat,
up to golf balls. Furthermore, sufficient DCAPE would support
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. As for the low-level
environment, it supports a few tornadoes, particularly along
boundaries in the area this afternoon. Initial supercell storm
mode may quickly become clusters and/or segments as coverage
increases with a gradual southeast progression through the area.
Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the
afternoon and evening. SPC captures this severe potential with a
Slight (2 of 5) severe risk across the entire area today
through tonight.

Later tonight, a secondary shortwave overspreads the area with
the cold front sagging farther south into the area. This would
support further thunderstorm development in a rich moist
environment. PWATs upwards of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will support
efficient rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per a hour as multiple
rounds of thunderstorms track over the same areas. This will
further amplify the potential for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding through this evening and tonight. The storms this
morning brought rainfall amounts of between a half inch and an
inch to areas north of Joplin to Springfield, with much lighter
amounts to the south. For tonight, we are expecting an
additional 1 to 2 inches remains in the forecast, with some of
the CAMs depicting localized corridors of up to 5 inches. I am
thinking the heaviest rainfall tonight with the greatest
likelihood of training storms is generally along and south of
Interstate 44, which did not get hit as hard as areas north of
the interstate did overnight. This may mitigate the potential
for flash flooding, but given our antecedent conditions with
elevated streamflows and saturated soils, have maintained the
Flood Watch, which is in effect through Monday morning. WPC has
maintained a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for flashing flooding across
portions of the area.

The cold front is progged to slide south of the area late
tonight after midnight, dragging the rain and thunder potentail
to the south of the area. High pressure building into the area
behind that front will bring cooler and drier weather for
Monday. Highs Monday will be much cooler than today, only rising
into the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances will remain
mostly in AR and OK through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Northwest flow develops beginning Tuesday and continuing
through at least Thursday, with transient shortwaves through the
pattern. This will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially along the southern MO and northern AR
border with a frontal boundary draped generally along the area.
These are not expected to be all day washouts, there are likely
to be scattered shower and thunderstorms each day this week. The
highest chances (30-60%) are currently depicted by the NBM on
Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a bit lower chances (30-50%)
Thursday through Saturday. This pattern will be accompanied by
cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A line of thunderstorms is forming along and north of a line
from Joplin to Springfield to Viburnum terminals early this
evening. Right now these are non-severe general thunderstorms,
but scattered severe thunderstorms are possible along and south
of this line through about 06Z tonight as the line slowly drops
southward along a boundary moving southeastward. Large hail and
gusty, erratic winds to 50 knots are the primary hazards from
any severe thunderstorms this evening / early overnight. Behind
the exit of the storms after Midnight local time tonight, expect
decreasing ceilings into MVFR and areas of IFR. Have maintained
the MVFR ceilings and introduced IFR ceilings at Joplin and
Springfield terminals with the latest TAF routine issuance just
now. Branson terminal was left without IFR for downsloping flow
forecast to limit chances of IFR ceilings there late tonight.
Expectation is for scouring out and lifting ceilings from 13-15Z
Monday morning, but lingering MVFR ceilings slowly becoming VFR
towards 16-18Z under light northeast winds under 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...00
LONG TERM...00
AVIATION...00

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-222015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Slight (Level 2 of 5) severe risk this afternoon through tonight
with a broken line of thunderstorms. Hail to the size of ping pong
balls, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes are
possible.

Slight (Level 2 of 4) to Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Excessive
Rainfall risk this afternoon through Monday morning. A Flood
Watch is in effect through 7 AM Monday morning. Additional
rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1 inch with localized amounts up to 2
inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through next week,
with the highest chances (50-70%) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Didio