Excessive Heat and Heat in Texas, June 11, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk on Thursday evening. Damaging wind
  gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

- Hot & muggy conditions continue on Thursday and again by
  Saturday, with heat indices near and above 100-105 degrees in
  the afternoon and evening.

- Active pattern continues into the weekend, with additional
  chances for rain and storms. Locally heavy rain/flooding
  possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Despite introducing a frontal passage to the forecast today, hot and
humid conditions and chances for storms will persist. Broad upper
troughing remains positioned across the western two-thirds of the
CONUS, with early morning water vapor showing a maturing upper
system moving quickly eastward across the Northern Plains.

While the most significant impacts from this system will remain
displaced to the north, a trailing surface boundary is forecast to
move slowly from northwest-to-southeast through the day,
approaching the I-44 corridor by this evening. A prominent thermal
ridge and pre-frontal "torching" will combine with high surface
dewpoints to yield another afternoon with heat indices >105F. The
epicenter of heat risk will shift south-east (into more of
central/southwestern Oklahoma) compared to prior days. A Heat
Advisory has been initiated, centered along the I-44 corridor,
from 1 PM to 6 PM today.

The arriving front will also introduce a greater overall chance
for showers and storms this afternoon, evening and night. This
includes a risk for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with potential
for damaging downburst wind gusts and perhaps intermittent large
hailstones with any more dominant/sustaining updraft.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

An occasionally stormy period will continue into Friday morning, as
modest ascent continues atop the sagging frontal zone. While
severe weather chances are currently forecast to diminish
dramatically after 10-11 PM on Thursday, the risk for locally
heavy rainfall and flooding looks to increase by this time,
particularly across southeast Oklahoma.

A modified airmass and lingering clouds/light precipitation will
make for a notably "cooler" day (heat indices in the low-90s) north
of the Red River on Friday. Depending on the ultimate position of
the front/moisture axis, >100F heat indices remain possible for
portions of far southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas. The
forecast remains generally drier for Friday afternoon and evening,
though will monitor low-amplitude upper waves moving eastward
across the southern High Plains for low rain/storm chances late.

A predominately dry period will be rather short-lived, as another
active period of rain/storm chances looks to return by Saturday
afternoon and continue into Sunday, coincident with the passage
of a stronger surface front. Some risk for strong-severe storms
and locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding appear evident
across the region. Another hot and humid afternoon is expected
prior to storms on Saturday, especially across northern Oklahoma
just ahead of the front.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rain and storm potential will linger into Sunday, especially across
the southern one-half of Oklahoma and north Texas. Coverage/chance
looks to slowly end from south-to-north by Monday. The stronger
front/more modified post-frontal airmass will also yield much
cooler conditions by Sunday into next week, with low to mid-80s
highs and lower humidity.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Area of MVFR ceilings have spread into southeastern Oklahoma
including KDUA. These will persist through much of the morning
before lifting late in the morning.

A cold front will move across the area through the forecast
period with gusty south winds shifting to northeasterly with the
frontal passage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
mid to late afternoon and become more widespread overnight,
although northern Oklahoma site will likely miss out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  69  86  74 /  60  70  40  10
Hobart OK         98  69  90  74 /  30  50  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  72  91  75 /   0  70  60   0
Gage OK           90  65  89  72 /   0  20  30  30
Ponca City OK     95  66  86  73 /  20  10  30  30
Durant OK         92  76  89  78 /   0  80  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ018>020-022>031-033>040-044.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>088.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26