Drought in Texas, June 1 to 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1144 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

 - A chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday
   before increasing during the day Tuesday and into Tuesday
   evening, especially across Louisiana and East Texas south of
   Interstate 20.

 - Very warm temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday. Most
   locations across the western half of the ArkLaTex have a medium
   chance (45 to 75 percent) of high temperatures above 95 degrees
   F during the daytime on Monday and Tuesday. A few locations
   have high chances (greater than 75 percent).

 - Somewhat cooler temperatures will return for the latter half of
   the week. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms
   return Friday and into next weekend, which should help keep
   temperatures in check.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Weak upper-level ridging will continue to keep much of the area
dry through the day on Monday with the exception of some diurnal
convection in our eastern zones. There could also be a greater
push of rain from the north during the evening and overnight
hours. Mid-range models are disagreeing on initiation of the
showers, but still end up with rain in parts of southern AR and
north central LA. Right now things don't look like they will be
severe without the upper-level support, but urban and flood prone
areas could see some puddles. The ridge will also keep
temperatures in the 90s on Monday and Tuesday. With elevated dew
points, heat indices are likely to hit 100 during the afternoons. A
cold front is expected to backdoor into the region from the
northwest Tuesday afternoon and bring more widespread rain chances
to areas along and south of I-20. These scattered showers should
continue for much of the overnight hours and end before daybreak
Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front,
in the mid to upper 80s, from Wednesday through the rest of the
week.

The upper-level ridge that has been suppressing most of the rain
looks to weaken in the latter half of the week, shifting us
towards southwest flow. Long-range models are suggesting a
shortwave trough moving through the Southern Plains in the wake of
this shift, bringing some rain chances to the entire region on
Friday. The spatial extent could be overdone this far out, as is
common when confidence is low. Exact timing and locations should
be pinned down with future forecasts.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, quiet night with light S/SW through
the morning. KLFK tempoed for brief LIFR/IFR. The aftn will see
variable directions ahead of a fropa. We may see W/NW briefly,
but all sites slack and veer late. NE winds will arrive predawn
on Tuesday. The moisture will pool ahead of the drier air arriving
and some late day VCTS possible, perhaps lingering, overnight
with a favorable low level jet over the NE sfc wind for Tues. It
will be Wed before the drier air limits convection again for us.

/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  75  95  74  91 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  73  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  75  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  73  94  72  89 /  10   0  20  10
TYR  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  76  95  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
LFK  75  95  75  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24