Drought in Texas, January 8 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1157 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

 - A Wind Advisory is in Effect for Thursday across portions of
   northeast Texas.

 - Burn bans remain in place across portions of the ArkLaTex as
   fire weather concerns continue.

 - Near-record warm temperatures will continue through Friday,
   with return to typical January temperatures (and needing
   jackets) this weekend.

 - Confidence is medium in areas of locally severe thunderstorms
   in our area Friday into Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Moisture advection continues across the region as low-level
southerly flow increases areawide. Visibility restrictions to as
low as 1 to 2 miles prevail aross much of east Texas and portions
of north Louisiana this evening. Visibility values are forecast
to improve throughout the overnight hours as winds gradually
increase.

A deepening surface low will translate northeast across the
Southern Plains overnight into the upper-Mississippi River Valley
on Thursday. A frontal boundary extending south from the mid-
latitude low will move into northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas
on Thursday afternoon and evening. An increased pressure gradient
ahead of the front will allow for elevated southerly winds on
Thursday with wind speeds approaching 20 mph with higher gusts
across portions of northeast Texas. Thus, a Wind Advisory is now
in effect for these areas through much of Thursday.

Surface front, combined with an approaching shortwave trough, will
allow for increased instability across the ArkLaTex on Thursday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much
of the region with some strong storms possible across the I-30
corridor into extreme northeast Louisiana. Isolated large hail,
strong wind gusts, and the possibility of a weak tornado could be
possible in the stronger storms.

As upper-level support necessary to sustain convection exits into
the Great Lakes Region by Friday morning, a second disturbance
will dig east into Oklahoma. The aforementioned cold front will
stall across the ArkLaTex on Friday and serve as the catalyst for
convection on Friday afternoon. Low-level southerly fetch of
moisture advecting parallel to the front could allow for training
thunderstorms across mainly south Arkansas and north Louisiana.
Additionally some storms could become severe with damaging winds,
severe hail, and isolated tornadoes. Conditions to improve late
Friday evening as a cold surface high builds east behind the
departing front.

The remainder of the forecast period will remain dry and under the
influence of cold high pressure. The coldest period will be on
Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Highs through the
weekend will average in the low to mid 50s. A gradual warming
trend expected thereafter through midweek. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A mix of low, mid and high cloud across the airspace tonight, with
some minor VSBY reductions at the local terminals. As a result, a
split of VFR/MVFR is the theme to start with the expectation for
some IFR and even some LIFR through daybreak. Surface winds will
increase through the day as southerly winds sustained between
10-15kt is expected AS gusts approach 25-30kt. Light showers in
advance of a surface front will support VCSH through 16z with hi-
res suggesting higher probs of SHRA closer to 20z for terminals.
The low cloud, generally around 2kft or less, may lift and
scatter out some through the afternoon, but heavy mid and high
cloud will keep the airspace locked in with clouds through the
period. Recovery is not expected until fropa occurs in later
pkg's.

RK

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Spotter activation may be needed Friday as thunderstorm chances
increase along and ahead of a strong cold front. Severe weather
may be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  78  66  75 /   0  40  30  70
MLU  60  77  67  76 /   0  30  40  80
DEQ  52  73  52  69 /  10  80  20  20
TXK  60  75  61  73 /  10  70  30  50
ELD  55  74  61  72 /  10  40  70  60
TYR  64  78  60  73 /   0  40  10  50
GGG  63  78  61  74 /   0  50  20  60
LFK  64  77  64  75 /   0  40  20  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CST Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-
     124-125-136-137.

&&

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53