At the start of the new year, Severe (D2) Drought was sited across much of the Northern Ranchlands and the Upper valley including the Northwestern section of Kenedy County, southeastern Brooks, northwestern Jim Hogg, eastern Zapata, and much of Starr County. Meanwhile, Extreme (D3) Drought was over much of Brooks and Jim Hogg counties, northwestern Starr county, and extreme northwestern Kenedy…
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
At the start of the new year, Severe (D2) Drought was sited across much of the Northern Ranchlands and the Upper valley including the Northwestern section of Kenedy County, southeastern Brooks, northwestern Jim Hogg, eastern Zapata, and much of Starr County. Meanwhile, Extreme (D3) Drought was over much of Brooks and Jim Hogg counties, northwestern Starr county, and extreme northwestern Kenedy County at the start of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:25 PM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1025 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Above average temperatures continue with daily minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk along and west of US 281/I-69 C becoming widespread for most inland areas on Friday and Saturday. Near record to record-breaking highs are likely. - Weak cold front could move into, or through, the region on Saturday, but only cooling temperatures by a few degrees Saturday night and Sunday. - There is a chance of patchy fog each night beginning Thursday night. - Adverse marine conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Dry conditions and above average temperatures remain the main focus across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley heading into the first days of 2026 as mid/upper level high pressure over Mexico extends ridging over our region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Gulf results in southeasterly/southerly winds for most of the forecast with daily highs warming from the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday to mainly mid/upper 80s by Friday as well as a minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk for portions of the County Warning Area (CWA) mainly along and west of US 281/I-69 C. In the near term, guidance this evening has become consistent that lingering drier air is likely to inhibit fog development late tonight, though isolated spots could still see some patchy areas of fog around sunrise Thursday morning along and east of US-281/I-69 C as temperatures minimize in the 40s and 50s across the region. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and light onshore winds are likely to support the development of patchy fog each night during the late night and early morning hours surrounding sunrise, beginning late Thursday night/early Friday morning as temperatures reach the 50s and 60s. The main change to this flow regime begins on Thursday as a series of mid-level disturbances embedded within the subtropical jet stream enhance winds aloft over central and northern Texas as mid-level shortwaves pass through. As the first wave of energy passes north of the region Thursday night, enhanced lower level (700 mb) west- northwesterly winds, extending from central Texas to the Big Bend, is likely to result in a dry line, possibly pushing into western portions of the CWA on Friday as well as downsloping from the Sierra Madre foothills, persisting into Saturday. As a result, a spike in temperatures is anticipated for Friday and Saturday leading to a widespread minor heat risk for inland areas as temperatures soar into the upper 80s, even near 90 F in some areas west of US-281/I-69 C on Saturday, which is near 15-20 degrees above average; near record or record-breaking temperatures are likely. Friday night, another ridge builds over the western US, sending a stronger mid-level disturbance through central Texas and possibly a weak cold front into, or through, the region on Saturday. However, despite a wind shift from the north and northeast Saturday afternoon into Sunday, temperatures only cool by about 5 degrees Saturday night and Sunday. Highs and lows remain above average through next week with additional record breaking heat possible as southerly/southeasterly winds and a warming trend return Monday. A low risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Light to gentle southeasterly winds or calm calm conditions are expected to continue overnight tonight, picking up to a moderate southerly breeze by Thursday afternoon of around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots possible remaining breezy at times Thursday night. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Light to gentle east-southerly winds and slight (1-2 ft) seas become southerly overnight as high pressure moves east to the central Gulf. Winds enhance to moderate to fresh late Thursday afternoon, likely leading to Small Craft Exercise headlines across all Lower Texas coastal waters Thursday night into Friday and possibly Friday night over the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters, as a pressure gradient tightens over the western Gulf; moderate (3-5 feet) seas are expected for this timeframe. Winds diminish to gentle and seas become slight (1-2 feet) Saturday morning ahead of a possible weak cold front that could move through Saturday afternoon and evening, shifting winds out of the north and northeast Saturday evening into Sunday, becoming southeasterly by Monday. Light to gentle, moderate at times, southeasterly winds and slight seas continue into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 54 79 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 49 80 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 52 81 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 81 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 74 68 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 78 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, D2 Severe Drought to D3 Extreme Drought was seen over Brooks County at the start of the month of January, with D3 Drought encompassing the northwestern half of the county.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, D3 (Extreme Drought) was seen over much of Jim Hogg County with D2 (Severe Drought) over northwestern Jim Hogg and extreme southeastern Jim Hogg, at the start of January, continuing through the 12th.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) was seen over most of Starr County at the start of the month, with the eastern quarter of the county remaining at lower values of drought (D1, Moderate Drought) through January 5th.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, D2 Severe Drought to D3 Extreme Drought was observed over Northwestern Kenedy County at the start of the month of January, with D3 Drought encompassing the extreme northwestern part of the county. By mid month, D2 to D3 Drought expanded across the western and northwestern half of Kenedy County with D3 Drought conditions encompassing Northwestern Kenedy County. These conditions remained in place through the remainder of the month.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, D2 Severe Drought was observed across the eastern half of Zapata County with D3 Extreme Drought observed over the extreme southeastern section of Zapata County at the start of the month of January, continuing through the 12th.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, at the start of the month, D2 Severe Drought had expanded into the western and much of the northern part of Northern Hidalgo County, continuing through January 12th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1311198, 1311205, 1311208, 1312294, 1312295, 1312296.