Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

 - Thunderstorms ending before dawn ahead of much cooler and
   breezier conditions for Saturday.

 - Cool weather lingers into early next week before milder
   temperatures and rain chances develop by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Sending this forecast discussion early as an active night is
beginning to get underway along a cold front with storms
accelerating south from our panhandle counties. Through 11 PM,
thunderstorms should continue to expand westward along the length
of the front and onto the Caprock with some severe modes at times
given a broad field of MUCAPEs ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
Given the progressive nature of this front and nearly parallel
boundary-relative storm motions, individual storms are unlikely
to be sustained for very long as they quickly become undercut, so
severe weather should not be too common. Very rich moisture with
dewpoints in the low-to- mid 60s and PWATs of almost 1.5 inches
off the Caprock will make for efficient rain rates and some minor
flooding, yet with less potential for training (unlike earlier in
western Oklahoma) the window for flash flooding should be small.
Storms will wane from N-S through the pre-dawn hours.

Much cooler northeasterlies deepen ahead of clearing skies for
Saturday. The gradient flow remains breezy through the morning with
gusts around 30 mph before slowly relaxing in the afternoon. Even
with full sun, high temps were nudged a bit below the NBM to better
align with the cooler range from MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Forecast challenges are few through early next week before we enter
a more amplified and unsettled pattern by late week. Sunday morning
begins with broad surface ridging peeling east of the region
allowing northeast winds to veer east-southeast. Anemic northwest
flow downstream of ridging from the Colorado Plateau to the Pacific
Northwest won't allow for much of any sensible weather locally, but
south of this ridge lies a weak disturbance with respectable
subtropical moisture. Models are still keen on keeping this wave and
any precip in southeast New Mexico for Sunday afternoon and evening
before dissipating thereafter. The next upper wave in west-northwest
flow arrives either Monday night or Tuesday and has potential for
low PoPs on the Caprock with some assistance via moistening SE
upslope flow. This moistening plays into much better PoPs by late
week as ensembles agree nicely in an active dryline setting up
locally and remaining on our turf through next weekend under
unsettled southwest flow with warmer temperatures to boot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR outside of storms tonight. Stationary front north of PVW-CDS
will accelerate south around sunset ahead of gusty NNE winds and a
window for TS at all terminals, some which could be severe.
Earlier potential for stratus behind these storms is looking less
certain except for CDS where brief MVFR may develop. Otherwise,
expect clearing skies before dawn with gusty NE winds through the
morning, becoming lighter in the afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

TXZ021>044-042330-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop after sunset accompanying a
southward-moving cold front. A few severe storms will be possible as
far west as the South Plains tonight, with hail up to half dollar
size and wind gusts near 70 mph. Locally heavy rain could lead to
some flash flooding, primarily off the Caprock. Storms will end from
north-to-south during the pre-dawn hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and again on Thursday.