Hail in Texas, April 29, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across
  parts of South Central Texas the rest of today

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats continue
  on Thursday into Friday

- Dry and cooler over the weekend with a warming trend early to
  middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of South
Central Texas for the rest of today into the evening. Several mid
level disturbances are forecast to push across the local area to
enhance instability as a cold front pushes over the Hill Country,
Interstate 35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through the period. The
front extends from Georgetown to Kerrville to central Val Verde
County as of 1230 PM. Earlier hires guidance had storms
developing over the Hill Country for the 12 PM hour, however, the
cap is holding strong at Austin Bergstrom International Airport
based on a recent airplane vertical profile. However, across the
southern Edwards Plateau, a jump in lightning is occurring as a
line of storms develop associated with the passage of one of those
mid level disturbances. With that said, still thinking that
isolated strong to severe storms are possible as this wave moves
to the east and helps the cap to erode somewhat.

The most likely scenario for storms to develop and quickly grow to
strong and severe levels is from now through 4 PM across parts of
the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. The Austin
area could get an elevated storm as they move from west to east
across the escarpment, but confidence is low at this time. The front
continues to push to the south with storms affecting portions of the
the I-35 Corridor including the San Antonio metro area and vicinity
around 2 PM to 6 PM if the cap weakens or breaks. For the Coastal
Plains area, if storms do develop, expect them around 5 PM into
the evening.

A couple of the short term models (1 to 3 hours update periods),
focused on mid to late afternoon into the evening storms across the
southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. If this happens, then the
cap holds for the eastern part of the local area. By the way, the
main severe weather threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
heavy rain. Stronger storms could be capable of producing very large
hail (2+ inches) due to high values of instability over the local
area. Tornado risks is low. In addition, isolated pockets of heavy
rain has a high probability (60+) with pwats coming in at 1.64
inches from the 12Z DRT sounding and forecast to increase to 2.0+
inches across the Hill Country, portions of the I-35 Corridor, and
Coastal Plains. With that said, isolated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
amounts and up to 4 inches are possible through this evening.

For Thursday, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms and
heavy rain is in store as mid to upper level disturbances move
across the local area from west to east while a low level
convergence zone sits across the Hill Country, the dryline stays
over the Pecos area and today's frontal boundary lingers around
the Coastal Plains. With this potential setup, main threats are
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain. As far as heavy
rain is concern, there are signals for isolated 1 to 3 inches with
up to 6 inches over the Hill Country and parts of the I-35
Corridor including the Austin and Georgetown areas. A Flood Watch
could be issued on Thursday morning. We are monitoring closely
today's situation on how it plays out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain and storms chances continue on Friday as a surface low develops
over eastern Mexico and then pushes into our area. With elevated
pwats in place, it is likely to have another round of heavy rain
over portions of the local area. At this time is hard to pin point
those areas, however, models are focusing across the eastern half of
South Central Texas.

The rain chances come to an end Friday night into the overnight
hours from west to east. A cool and dry weekend awaits with highs in
the 60s and 70s for Saturday and 70s on Sunday. A warming trend
starts the work week with highs in the 80s and even 90s over the Rio
Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A front is moving across South Central Texas today with isolated
thunderstorm development expected into the evening. The potential
for KAUS to see storms has gone down given the cap holding this
morning, though there remains some potential at KSAT/KSSF and KDRT
mid-afternoon into the evening where PROB30 groups continue. While
there could be some brief scattering of ceilings today at I-35
sites, generally MVFR conditions will continue. KDRT will likely
return to VFR in the next hour or so. MVFR to IFR ceilings redevelop
overnight with the potential for fog as well. Better chances for
additional thunderstorm development are expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  79  60  66 /  20  40  90 100
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  78  61  65 /  20  40  90 100
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  81  61  69 /  20  30  80 100
Burnet Muni Airport            62  74  56  61 /  20  60  90 100
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  82  66  75 /  40  30  90  80
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  74  58  61 /  20  50  90 100
Hondo Muni Airport             67  82  63  69 /  20  30  90  90
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  80  61  67 /  20  40  90 100
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  82  63  70 /  10  30  80 100
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  82  63  69 /  20  30  80  90
Stinson Muni Airport           68  84  65  70 /  20  20  80  90

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

TXZ188-190-291915-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Blanco
and northeastern Gillespie Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 140 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fredericksburg, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Round Mountain, Johnson City, Stonewall, Blowout,
Sandy, Willow City, LBJ State Park, Rocky Creek, Hye, Eckert, Rocky
Hill, Blumenthal, and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9836 3021 9837 3023 9896 3041 9898
      3050 9845 3050 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 265DEG 40KT 3034 9884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

TXZ190-191-292030-
Blanco TX-Hays TX-
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hays
and central Blanco Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Johnson City, or 7 miles north of Blanco, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dripping Springs, Johnson City, Bear Creek, Rocky Creek, Henly,
Pedernales Falls State Park, Driftwood, and Mount Gainor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3013 9786 3011 9855 3029 9855 3036 9817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 270DEG 36KT 3020 9845

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
456 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

TXZ183-184-292245-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
456 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Edwards
and northeastern Val Verde Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Juno, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Us-277 Near The Sutton-Edwards County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10100 3029 10060 3022 10027 2986 10046
      3020 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 293DEG 33KT 3025 10090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CJM