Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late
  evening; severe storms are possible on Friday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return
  several days this week, especially across portions of
  northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The dryline has advanced quickly eastward so far, and as of 2PM, the
boundary extended from Medford-Hinton-Hobart-Crowell. As a result, the
latest 12Z model guidance has trended a bit east with severe thunderstorm
activity, as well. Convective initiation has already begun near
Duncan and south of Archer City. Large to very large hail and
damaging winds (at least initially) are expected to be the main
hazards due to strong instability (~3500 J/kg) and very strong
cloud-layer shear (80+ knots). Forecast hodographs, in general,
are long and generally straight this afternoon which would suggest
multi-cell and/or splitting storms.

Veered surface flow and meager low-level wind shear are expected to
dampen tornadogenesis attempts (at least initially). Closer to sunset,
surface winds could become backed over parts of south-central and
southeastern Oklahoma, with pockets of enhanced 0-1km helicity values
(curved low-level hodographs) and increase the tornado threat in
these areas. Severe storm potential diminishes around midnight or 1AM
Thursday. That said, due to the synoptic setup and the time of year,
a Tornado Watch is being issued for areas generally east of I-44.

With the potential for training of storms, heavy rainfall may lead
to flash flooding, as well.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Thursday and Friday night will remain dry and breezy. The main
concern is near critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for part of northwest Oklahoma. It will
feel hot, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80's to
low-90's.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much
drier airmass on Saturday.  An elevated frontal boundary across
south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered
showers through the late morning/early afternoon.

With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent
rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday
afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels
remain receptive to fire.

With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and
western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday.
Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly
would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s.

After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and
mid 70s by afternoon.  The wind will become a little breezy across
western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon.

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday
into Monday.  This may result in a few showers and storms mainly
across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday.

On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture
return.  Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during
the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dense cloud cover producing broken ceilings will keep a few of our
terminals in central Oklahoma under periods of MVFR conditions
through 00Z. A dryline was advancing across western Oklahoma which
could produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon impacting all
terminals east of the dryline before retreating westward after
sundown. Terminals KWWR & KCSM will remain west of the dryline
with no storm activity but have TEMPOS for TSRA across our
remaining terminals through 01Z although will keep terminal KDUA
through 06Z. Surface winds go light after 00Z although cannot rule
out any outflow boundaries from potential storm activity affecting
surface winds. A low-level jet will set up tonight generally
across southeast Oklahoma which could produce low-level wind shear
conditions after 06Z affecting only terminals KDUA and KSPS.
Stratus may increase late tonight across southeast to central
Oklahoma between 08-14Z with a higher potential for radiational
fog development in western Oklahoma closer to the dryline. As a
result all terminals east of the retreated dryline (all expect
for KWWR) could reduce to MVFR or periods of IFR categories due to
potential low ceilings and/or lowered visibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  87  66  81 /  20   0  10  40
Hobart OK         54  90  64  88 /  10   0  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  61  92  66  87 /  30   0  10  20
Gage OK           47  89  60  87 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     56  85  66  82 /  20   0   0  60
Durant OK         65  86  66  82 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004-005-
     009-010-014-021.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

TXZ086-088>090-152045-
Clay TX-Wichita TX-Archer TX-Baylor TX-
318 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Clay,
central Archer, southeastern Wichita and southeastern Baylor Counties
through 345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles south of Wichita Falls to 5 miles
northeast of Westover. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita Falls, Archer City, Iowa Park, Holliday, Dean, Megargel,
Jolly, Sheppard AFB, Westover, Mankins, Lake Kickapoo, Lakeside City,
and Pleasant Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 9810 3402 9861 3343 9915 3342 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 226DEG 32KT 3382 9852 3356 9894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

OKZ031-152115-
Seminole OK-
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Seminole County through 415 PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Cromwell, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cromwell and Interstate 40 between Little and Cromwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 9644 3527 9658 3531 9664 3539 9666
      3540 9662 3539 9661 3541 9659 3539 9654
      3541 9654 3544 9657 3546 9654 3543 9651
      3543 9649 3546 9648 3546 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 237DEG 43KT 3535 9655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.