Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (level 2 of 5) severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon
  into tonight. All modes of severe storms will be possible with
  the main risks being large hail and damaging wind.

- Thursday afternoon has a low-end Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
  of severe thunderstorms in the far eastern Ozarks, with
  primary hazard being large hail.

- Severe thunderstorms expected again on Friday, with an
  Enhanced (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in
  the afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into
  early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible.

- Marginal excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas
  that see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show deep southwesterly flow aloft from
west Texas into New England. Upper low was located over Nebraska
with a trough extending southwest of the low into New Mexico
with another low entering the Pacific northwest. Surface front
was shifting out of central KS into eastern KS where surface
based CAPES were in the 3500-4000 j/kg and no CIN was residing.
The morning convection and low clouds have kept some CIN values
around 50-100 j/kg in the eastern half of the CWA, but this was
slowly eroding and better CAPES were spreading east into the
area. 0-6km shear values were around 50kts out of the southwest.
Still getting some scattered showers/storms over our eastern CWA
with the remnants of this mornings activity.

Severe weather this afternoon / tonight: Expecting convection to
develop along/ahead of cold front/dryline in eastern KS/OK
within the band of higher instability. This activity is expected
to initiaite slightly west of the CWA with some discrete
supercells possible which would include all modes of severe
storms. As the upper wave and surface front shift east by late
afternoon and early evening, storms may form into clusters or
qlcs segments. Damaging wind and an embedded tornado risk will
be the main severe weather risks this evening as the qlcs shifts
east. While there is some timing differences in the CAMS, the
main area of convection should exit the eastern CWA between
midnight and 3 am.

Thursday/Thursday night: Instability is expected to increase
during the afternoon in the wake of any residual precipitation
from the today/tonights shortwave. A secondary shortwave is then
expected to move through the area during the afternoon and early
evening with some of the CAMS generating additional convection
over the eastern Ozarks. We are currently in a marginal risk(1
of 5) for this activity, in which the main risk would be with
large hail. Anything that develops should move out of the area
by the early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Severe weather chances late Friday into Saturday morning: The
upper level wave currently entering the Pacific northwest will
continue to track east and into the plains during the day on
Friday. A strong upper level jet out of the southwest will be
southeast of the trough and move into the area late in the day.
strong southerly winds in the lower levels will advect Gulf
moisture into the area during the day. With temperatures and
moisture increasing in the low levels, instability will increase
ahead of an eastward moving dry line/cold front which will begin
to push into the area during the late afternoon or early
evening. Discrete supercells are expected to develop ahead of a
dryline over the central/southern plains and dryline. As the
upper wave shifts eastward, the cold front will overtake the
dryline and storms should begin to form into a qlcs with
damaging wind and spin-up tornado risks becoming the more
predominant severe weather risks. The storms and front will
continue to track east across the CWA during the night and
potentially into Saturday morning before ending. This upper wave
will finally end our persistent pattern of southwest flow aloft
with drier air moving in behind the wave and surface front for
the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

For the 18z TAFS, surface based CAPES starting to increase to
our west and should creep in here throughout the afternoon.
Could see storm initiation ahead of a dryline towards the onset
of the 18z TAFS to the west of the CWA, however some scattered
activity will be possible over the area before that main area
moves in. Have gone with prob30s until late afternoon and then a
predominant TSRA with heavier rain between 23z and 02z as the
main line moves through. Expecting MVFR conditions with brief
periods of IFR within the stronger convection. Things should
clear east of the TAF sites by 03-04z. May get some stratus in
here overnight towards morning, especially at the BBG site.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 16:
KVIH: 85/2006

April 17:
KSGF: 87/1937
KVIH: 86/2004
KUNO: 87/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006
KJLN: 66/2006
KUNO: 62/2006
KVIH: 63/1976

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

April 17:
KSGF: 66/1976

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Camden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
147 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
147 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight. All modes of severe storms will be possible with the
best chance of severe weather west of a West Plains to Salem line.
Hail to the size of golf balls, damaging wind up to 70 mph and a
few tornadoes will be possible.

Heavy rainfall associated with multiple rounds of thunderstorms
could cause localized flooding concerns. Damaging wind gusts up to
35-40 miles per hour will be possible outside of thunderstorms at
times today into tonight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong storms will be possible on Thursday afternoon in the
eastern Ozarks with the main risk being hail to the size of
quarters.

A strong upper level wave and surface front will be the focus for
strong to severe weather late Friday into Friday night. All modes
of severe storms will be possible with the best severe weather
chances northwest of a Joplin to Osage Beach line.

Flooding may be possible in areas that receive multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight for
most of the area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
155 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Walnut Grove            37.41N 93.55W
04/15/2026  M54 MPH          Greene             MO   Public

&&

teo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

KSZ073-097-152030-
Crawford KS-Bourbon KS-
257 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BOURBON AND NORTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walnut, or 9 miles northeast of St. Paul, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marmaton, Arcadia, Walnut, Redfield, Hepler, Greenbush, Pawnee
Station, Hiattville, Petersburg, Farlington, Brazilton, Porterville,
and Englevale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southeastern
Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9489 3767 9461 3760 9462 3747 9508
      3771 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 239DEG 30KT 3760 9504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Didio