Hail in Nebraska, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
  southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large
  hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected.
  Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding.

- Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and
  again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe
  weather potential.

- Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows
  both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to
  low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of
  the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska
and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska
border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary
extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of
Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values
are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range
between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from
7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main
concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty
winds.

Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some
flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and
south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the
boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of
rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the
night.

Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east-
northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as
moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An
isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge
moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper
70s to mid-80s.

Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to
the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies
Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region
through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold
front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than
yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging
from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into
the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through
the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the
latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region.
Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front
Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition
to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in
northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix,
becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading
into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to
Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should
decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers
remaining.

Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want
to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and
potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday
morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern
Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the
Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to
mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more
widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the
freezing mark.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Spotty showers and storms this morning are favored to remain
out of the TAF sites. Higher chances arrive this afternoon at
OFK, but guidance suggests higher storm chances will remain east
of OMA and LNK for now. That said, still have a 20-30% chance
from around 19-00Z. Otherwise, expect a band of MVFR ceilings at
OMA and LNK this morning before they rise to VFR/scatter out
this afternoon with only passing high clouds after (barring a
storm). Expect northeasterly winds to become more northerly
this morning, northwesterly this afternoon, and southwesterly
this evening. Speeds should generally remain at or below 10 kts
outside of any storms.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
611 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161200-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
611 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this morning, with
hail being the primary threat. Additional severe weather chances
arrive this afternoon, with the highest potential being near and
east of the Missouri River from 1 PM through 6 PM. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to increased fire danger
on Thursday, especially in northeast Nebraska.

Additional chances for severe storms arrive for Friday afternoon and
evening. All severe weather hazards will be possible with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be today and Friday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     Hail             Essex                   40.83N 95.30W
04/14/2026  M1.00 Inch       Page               IA   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report from emergency management of
            hail up to one inch in diameter in Essex,
            Iowa.

&&

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