A third consecutive day of isolated dryline thunderstorms developed across the Rolling Plains on the afternoon of the 14th. Strong moisture returned to areas off the caprock and sufficient heating resulted in convective thunderstorm development.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A third consecutive day of isolated dryline thunderstorms developed across the Rolling Plains on the afternoon of the 14th. Strong moisture returned to areas off the caprock and sufficient heating resulted in convective thunderstorm development. One of these storms became severe as it moved over eastern King County producing a severe wind gust of 64 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 11:32 AM CST, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - A dryline will bring chances for severe storms to areas off the Caprock this afternoon and evening, with dry and windy conditions west of the escarpment. - Critical fire danger is expected this afternoon for western portions of the Caprock which have not seen beneficial rainfall over the past week. - Elevated to critical fire weather may return on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The lack of substantial large scale ascent overhead will continue to make today's forecast highly uncertain. However, all other thermodynamic parameters will be in place to support severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through early evening. A positively tilted trough will continue to move eastward across the Intermountain West this afternoon with the trough axis stretching into the southwestern US. There may be a weak short wave or two late this afternoon or evening moving through the southwest flow aloft. However, nothing is discernible currently on water vapor imagery. Furthermore, much of the lift from this trough will not arrive until late this evening into early Wednesday morning. An eastward moving dryline this afternoon will keep the deeper moisture off the caprock but there is little convergence on this low level feature. Therefore, there is no one favored location for convective development off the caprock this afternoon. Low level moisture will continue to be drawn up into the area early this evening as the dryline begins to retreat back westward. Although some CAM guidance convects on the dryline, the lack of ample large scale ascent and weak convergence along the dryline would only favor a few storms. As mentioned above, thermodynamic profiles will be favorable for severe storms. Afternoon storms will favor a large hail and damaging wind threat. Steep mid level lapse rates under a well mixed and warm near surface layer will yield mixed layer CAPE values anywhere between 1500 and 2500 J/kg off the caprock. High level cloud cover will at least somewhat inhibit mixing for the rest of the afternoon. This is also evident in latest CAM guidance waffling on convective initiation. The tornado potential will be low with afternoon convection due to the weak convergence along the dryline and nearly straight line hodographs. There will be very little curvature in the forecast low level hodographs supporting this low tornado threat. During the late afternoon into the early evening, the retreating dryline will see a higher chance for tornadoes as the low level jet rapidly increases. Low level turning will greatly increase during this time period contributing to the increased tornado threat along with the continued large hail and damaging wind threat. A pacific cold front will begin to impinge on the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle early Wednesday morning and slowly progress across the FA through the morning and early afternoon hours. We will see deep boundary layer mixing on Wednesday tapping into a broad region of winds of 30-35kt at 700mb. The deep mixing will allow for relative humidity values to drastically drop on Wednesday afternoon, possibly into the single digits. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 At the moment, the long term forecast is trending drier. From Thursday into Friday the next short wave trough will be diving across the Intermountain West but remaining well north of the region. As this shortwave emerges onto the northern and central Plains on Friday, low level moisture will make a return. However, the far northern latitude of this trough will more likely bring fire weather conditions. The dryline should quickly mix eastward on Friday leaving the FA with very dry and breezy conditions. A fairly potent cold front will follow sometime late Friday into early Saturday which will bring much cooler temperatures for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Breezy to windy southwest winds will continue at all terminals through sunset, with speeds around 20-20G40KTs. Overall VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the period. However, there remains a slight chance for -TSRA at KCDS this evening, which could bring brief MVFR CIGs to the terminal. If any storms develop localized strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall could lead visibility restrictions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025- 027>030-033-034-039. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029. && SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...12
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 TXZ021>044-151700- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1159 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly off the Caprock this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe, and will be capable of producing hail up to two inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph. If storms form this evening, then storms may pose a risk for tornadoes across the Rolling Plains into the night. Strong southwest winds to the west of a dryline will result in critical fire danger over western portions of the Caprock and far southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon until 8 PM for these locations. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the southwestern Texas Panhandle from 1 PM until 7 PM, where sustained wind speeds up to 35 mph are expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions may lead to elevated to critical fire weather on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 144 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:48 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Guthrie measured a severe wind gust of 64 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1320036.