Flood and Hail in Oklahoma, April 14 to 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
129 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and
  Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several
  days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and
  far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A dryline is expected to mix towards the east today, with the
potential for multifaceted hazards across the area. To the west of
the dryline across western and northwestern Oklahoma, near
critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
materialize. RH values are expected to get down well into the
teens across the aforementioned area, in addition to west-
southwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Along and
east of the dryline, the environment will be characterized by
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which will foster
instability values over 3000 J/kg. An approaching mid-level trough
will continue to move across the Desert Southwest today, with
southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern Plains. With
the aforementioned approaching wave, mid-level heights are
expected decrease, which is a good indication of large scale
ascent.

The 12Z RAOB at OUN indicated a very unstable and slightly capped
environment. The anticipation is for daytime heating to mix out
any additional inhibition by this afternoon, which will prime the
environment for storm development. That being said, storms are
likely to develop along the dryline this afternoon and spread
eastwards through the evening and overnight hours. The downstream
environment will support severe weather, especially as initial
storms develop. The main hazards for storms this afternoon and
evening will be very large hail (potentially up to 4 inches),
damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential will
increase after 00Z, especially for locations north of I-40, where
a 50-60 kt LLJ is expected into Wednesday morning.

There is some short term guidance that would suggest additional
rounds of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The aforementioned wave approaches the area Wednesday, with
additional strong to severe storms expected across much of the
area. A dryline will once again mix eastward Wednesday afternoon,
potentially near the Highway 81 corridor. Any storms that do form
along this boundary will have the potential to become severe. All
hazards will be possible with the strongest storms that develop.
Storms generally should move off to the south and east during the
evening hours.

Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire
weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to
warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity
approaching 10-15 percent.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper
trough moves across the central and northern Rockies.  How far east
drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is
uncertain.  However, there is the potential for a small area of near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western
Oklahoma and northern Texas.  The bigger story will be the potential
for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the
afternoon and evening.  Better forcing across the northern half of
Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage.  Still a lot of detail
to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful
storms.   Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which
is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night.

The front is expected to push well to our south and east on
Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas
remaining dry.  The exception may be a few showers across southern
Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

One or more waves of storms is expected to develop in western
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, and progress
eastward (with northeastward storm motions) through the evening.
Keeping prob30s for now given the line is expected to be broken
and there remain some uncertainties in timing.

Clouds are remaining more persistent then previously expected, but
some lifting is still expected. As on previous mornings, MVFR
stratus will develop again in the morning up toward I-44 and along
I-35. Winds will remain southerly and mostly gusty, aside from a
wind shift in northwest Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  79  59  85 /  60  60  40   0
Hobart OK         62  85  52  89 /  60  40  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  65  84  60  90 /  70  50  20   0
Gage OK           53  82  46  89 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     63  80  56  85 /  60  60  50   0
Durant OK         65  79  64  86 /  80  80  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-021.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TXZ087-088-142000-
Knox TX-Baylor TX-
235 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Knox and
west central Baylor Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rhineland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Red Springs, Vera, and Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 9975 3378 9956 3376 9949 3375 9948
      3376 9947 3374 9938 3362 9929 3344 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 226DEG 34KT 3354 9963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
435 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TXZ084-087-142200-
Foard TX-Knox TX-
435 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Foard
and northwestern Knox Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Truscott, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gilliland and Truscott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 9964 3372 9963 3359 9999 3380 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 227DEG 35KT 3375 9987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU