Cold in Tennessee, January 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

 - A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect from 11 PM this
   evening through Noon Sunday for dangerously cold wind chills
   between -5F and +5F (both nights).

 - Strong NNW winds of 20-25 MPH (with gusts of 30-35 MPH) are
   expected for much of the day on Saturday.

 - Snow flurries will continue for much of the region through
   Saturday morning, with more persistent light snow possible
   across the far eastern portion of the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A developing area of surface low pressure (off the coast of
GA/north FL) will continue to deepen as it advances northeastward
to a position off the coast of NC/SC by 12Z. As this occurs, the
local pressure gradient will continue to contract between the low
and an arctic high dropping southward from ND into KS/OK, with a
steady increase in NNW winds anticipated for the remainder of the
evening and overnight. This will drive temperatures into the m-u
teens by sunrise, with dewpoints falling into the single digits
for all but our far southeastern counties, as well. As sustained
winds strengthen to 15 MPH (with frequent gusts of 25-30 MPH),
wind chills will fall into the -5 to +5F range, and a Cold Weather
Advisory is still on schedule to go into effect beginning at 11
PM.

In the mid/upper-levels, an amplified shortwave trough (initially
positioned across the Mid-MS Valley with a sharp positive tilt),
will gradually deepen and become more neutrally-tilted as it digs
southeastward into western portions of the TN Valley by 12Z.
Impressive synoptic scale ascent will occur downstream from this
feature (with 12-hr 500-mb height falls on the order of 200m
across our CWFA) and this will support progressive moistening of
the lower/mid-tropospheric column with an increasing coverage of
snow flurries expected particularly between 6-12Z. Strong dry air
advection in the boundary layer will in all likelihood reduce
precipitation intensity at the surface and prevent both visibility
reductions and the risk for rapidly accumulating snowfall.
However, a dusting of snow may occur for many locations east of
I-65, with up to 0.5" possible in the higher terrain of Franklin
TN/Jackson/Dekalb counties where the southwestern edge of a mid-
level deformation axis (northwest of the developing surface low)
may enhance the potential for light snow (versus flurries).

During the day tomorrow, the intensifying mid-level shortwave
trough is predicted to assume a slight negative tilt as it digs
further into the southeastern Atlantic Coast and this will support
further deepening of a surface cyclone off the coast of NC. As
deep-layer subsidence strengthens in the wake of this feature, the
majority of lingering light snow (or flurries) will come to an
end from W-to-E between 12-18Z. However, a vast area of stratus
will likely extend from the Great Lakes southward into TN Valley,
and a remote snow flurry could occur beneath this cloud layer at
any point. Downward vertical motions will also work in conjunction
with a steep pressure gradient to support strong NNW winds for
much of the day (sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH and frequent gusts
of 30-35 MPH), with Wind Advisory criteria likely to be achieved
in higher terrain and in a few valley locations, as well. However,
due to the marginal extent of criteria, we will opt to not issue
a Wind Advisory as this point and continue to message the risk for
strong winds in our Cold Weather Advisory (which will remain in
effect throughout the day as temps will only peak in the mid 20s).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Latest short range guidance suggests that low stratus clouds will
continue to blanket the TN Valley on Saturday night, with a few
pockets of snow flurries remaining possible (especially across the
northeastern corner of the forecast area). Fortunately, the low
clouds will provide some insulation and keep low temperatures in
the 10-15F range, but even as the pressure gradient begins to
relax it appears as if there will be sufficient low-level mixing
to maintain winds around 10 MPH (with early morning wind chills
dropping into the -5 to +5F range once again).

Low stratus will finally erode after sunrise on Sunday morning,
but mid-level clouds will quickly return during the afternoon as a
clipper system begins to dig southeastward from the northern
Plains. Nevertheless, there should be a sufficiently long period
of insolation to support temps warming into the l-m 30s as winds
diminish. As the clipper system advances further southeastward
into the southern Appalachians by 12Z Monday, cloud layers aloft
will continue to expand/lower, and we will need to monitor this
timeframe for a few additional snow flurries. However, the
greatest coverage of light snow appears as if it will remain along
and north of the OH River. Skies will clear in the wake of the
clipper system on Monday, with abundant sunshine and the onset of
light southwesterly winds supporting highs of 45-50F. Return flow
will continue on Monday night as a weakening area of low pressure
shifts eastward across the Red River Valley, with lows warming
into the u20s-l30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Global models indicate that the warming trend (in progress at the
end of the short term period) will continue on Tuesday, as a
decaying area of low pressure tracks eastward into the Mid-South
region. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the
low and trailing cold front will yield a band of light-moderate
rain that will spread eastward and across the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon/evening. With temperatures at the onset of
precipitation expected to be well above freezing, only rain is
expected as instability appears too meager to support
thunderstorms at this point. Rain will come to an end from NW-to-
SE early Wednesday morning, as the leading edge of a cooler/drier
Canadian airmass begins to enter the region. This airmass will
remain intact from Wednesday-Thursday night as the center of the
slowly modifying high shifts southward across the Plains and into
the western Gulf, with highs falling back into the l-m 40s and
lows dropping into the l-m 20s. However, temperatures will recover
into the u40s-l50s on Friday due to a modest increase in
southwest flow as another clipper system drops southeastward over
the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

There have been no significant changes to aviation forecast
reasoning, as an overcast layer of MVFR stratus will continue at
both terminals thru the early morning hours (along with occasional
snow flurries). Due to the very light nature of precipitation and
limited coverage of flurries, we still do not foresee the need
for issuance of AWWs. Although the base of the stratus layer will
begin to lift arnd 14Z (before descending once again after 22Z),
cigs should remain in the MVFR category thru 6Z. Sfc winds will
remain from NNW, with speeds steadily increasing to 17G27 kts from
14-22Z before gradually diminishing beyond this point. Due to
winds this strong, LLWS should not be a concern, even with NNW
flow just above the sfc in the 30-35 kt range.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD