At the start of the month, much of the area was in Severe Drought. S.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
At the start of the month, much of the area was in Severe Drought. However, by late February, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed significant improvement. Most of West Tennessee moved into the Moderate (D1) or Abnormally Dry (D0) categories. The Tennessee River at Savannah and Bruceton maintained near-normal flows, and the soil moisture profile began to recover. While a sliver of Severe Drought remained near the northern border, improving conditions were found elsewhere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:24 PM CST, 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1124 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon Sunday as
wind chills hover around 0 degrees.
- Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain
chances returning Tuesday.
- The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below
normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
A 1040 mb high will center over the Mid-South by sunrise,
allowing morning lows to dip into the single digits and teens. A
Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon as wind
chills hover around 0 degrees. Luckily, warmer conditions are on
the way as high pressure slides east today, allowing winds to
veer southwest. Afternoon highs will climb above freezing nearly
areawide, allowing residual snow and ice to begin melting once
again. Efficient melting will continue into Monday as sunshine
and temperatures in the 40s and 50s return.
A slight pattern change will emerge on Tuesday as a shortwave and
attendant cold front eject across the Plains. Ahead of this
system, precipitable water values will increase to around the
90th percentile. Light showers will begin impacting the Mid-South
in the morning hours, becoming more widespread through the
evening. Precipitation will linger into Wednesday before the
aforementioned front clears the area. Overall storm total
rainfall appears minimal with the latest LREF painting a 30%
chance of greater than 0.75 inches through midday Wednesday. This
will have a minimal impact on the ongoing D2 and D3 drought
conditions in the Mid-South.
The end of the week will feature dry conditions with temperatures
warming to slightly below normal. Friday will be the warmest with
highs in the mid to upper 50s. Long range guidance suggests
another frontal passage this upcoming weekend, along with
additional rain chances. However, run-to-run inconsistencies
continue to make precise timing and impacts too early to tell.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Strong surface high pressure over the region will result in VFR
conditions over the next 30 hours. There is high confidence that
winds will diminish to 5 knots or less through Sunday morning.
There is a low probability (20%) of MVFR CIGs and/or fog
affecting MEM and MKL near daybreak. Winds will shift to the
south tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure slides east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Light 20ft winds and MinRH values above 50 percent will keep fire
weather concerns to a minimum through the end of next week.
Wetting rain chances return Tuesday.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
Severe Drought (D2) conditions improved to Moderate Drought (D1) by the middle of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1317064, 1317065, 1317066, 1317067, 1317068, 1317069, 1317070, 1317071, 1317073.