Minor drought improvements were noted in February 2026, particularly across northwest Middle TN where previous severe drought conditions improved to moderate drought. Severe drought conditions persisted though across portions of the Cumberland Plateau where monthly precipitation deficits were generally 1 to 2 inches.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Minor drought improvements were noted in February 2026, particularly across northwest Middle TN where previous severe drought conditions improved to moderate drought. Severe drought conditions persisted though across portions of the Cumberland Plateau where monthly precipitation deficits were generally 1 to 2 inches. By the end of February, about 21 percent of the area was in at least moderate drought conditions with 2 percent of this classified as severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:37 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 - Dangerously cold temperatures through the weekend. Lows in the single digits to teens with wind chill values near or below zero at times. - Scattered flurries through Sunday morning with a light, dusty accumulation on roads possible across the Plateau. - Warming afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Medium to high rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 A strong upper-low is situated over the Carolinas currently where a winter storm continues to impact areas from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, very cold Arctic air continues to filter into Middle TN from the north. There's even enough wrap-around moisture in the low-levels to foster stratus and snow flurries with a little moisture enhancement from Lake Michigan. Scattered flurries will continue overnight with perhaps another dusting in the higher elevations of the Plateau. Lows Sunday morning will be in the 10s and 0s, with wind chill values in the 0s and -0s at times. Thankfully we'll have a bit of a warm-up on Monday with highs in the 40s during the afternoon and a southwesterly breeze. A shortwave ridge will approach from the west Monday night that will support continued warm advection into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 While we'll be on the "warmer" side on Tuesday, this is associated with pre-frontal warm advection and increasing rain chances with the next shortwave disturbance. PoPs are medium to high with rain amounts 0.50" or less. Unfortunately we'll return back to below-normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 10s and 20s those nights, but perhaps a brief warm-up on Friday afternoon. Overall the forecast is dry and cold mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 VFR conditions remain in place for now at BNA, MQY, and CKV. Periods of snow showers will impact SRB and CSV over the next several hours, restricting visibility at times. BNA and MQY will also see brief spurts of light snow, but vis restrictions are not anticipated. MVFR cigs can be seen upstream over northeast Kentucky, and will eventually roll into Middle TN. A return to VFR looks to occur between 18Z-20Z with winds going light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 13 32 23 46 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 11 31 22 43 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 8 28 14 41 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 13 34 22 48 / 10 0 10 0 Cookeville 10 28 16 42 / 20 0 0 0 Jamestown 7 27 12 40 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 13 33 22 47 / 10 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 13 32 19 47 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 11 32 20 44 / 10 10 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for TNZ005>011- 023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions across eastern Cumberland County from January 2026 persisted into February.
Severe drought conditions across Stewart County from January 2026 improved to moderate drought conditions in February.
Severe drought conditions across Houston County from January 2026 improved to moderate drought conditions in February.
Severe drought conditions across Montgomery County from January 2026 improved to moderate drought conditions in February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1308874, 1308875, 1308876, 1308877.