Drought in Oklahoma, June 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

 - Hot and humid weather continues Monday, with afternoon heat index
   values near or above 100 degrees in some places yet again.

 - Shower and storm chances increase some late Monday into Tuesday,
   with temperatures dialing back several degrees.

 - Cooler and less humid weather is expected Wednesday following the
   passage of a weak cold front.

 - Unsettled weather returns late week into next weekend with daily
   shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Moisture pooling across far northeast into north-central OK pushed
afternoon heat indices to just under advisory criteria, though Tulsa
Riverside Airport did get to 106 heat index, making criteria. A
surface trough from north-central down to southwest OK set off some
brief attempts at storms, however nothing could get going and the
forecast area stayed dry. Several earlier HRRR runs have suggested
that a cluster of storms developing over eastern KS could push
outflow into NE OK late tonight or early Monday morning and generate
showers and storms. Given uncertainty, will include slight chances
up against the KS and MO borders.

Will have to watch forecast temps and humidity levels on Monday for
the chance an advisory may be needed for parts of the area. The
current forecast has values in the triple digits, but not quite to
advisory levels and will thus hold off on heat headlines at this
time. There are now hints at late day showers and storms along an
advancing outflow/front back-dooring from the northeast. With upper
heights still slowly rising and the ridge center sitting over the
Red River, the environment aloft will not be overly favorable for
sustained convection, unless a storm cluster can ride an outflow.
Inserted a band of slight chance to chance PoPs starting late
afternoon and dropping south into the evening.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

CAMs are now pretty aggressive at bringing convection off the higher
terrain and into the central Plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with one or more clusters/complexes riding outflow to the
east and southeast into the forecast area and then more south across
the forecast area during the first part of the day Tuesday. The
initial activity that pushes into NE OK could have some damaging
wind potential, with lessening severe potential afterward. Depending
on how this plays out, some storm chance could linger in the south
along an outflow boundary Tuesday afternoon. The negative factor for
storm coverage will be the ridging that still exists aloft. This
makes the temperature forecast for Tuesday more uncertain, but
certainly should be cooler than Monday. Temperatures and humidity
will dial back by Wednesday as an expansive surface high centered
over the Great Lakes back-doors some cooler and drier air into the
forecast area from the east and northeast. The best rain/storm
chances should stay west of the forecast area Wednesday. The ridge
aloft shifts east by Thursday, with SW flow returning to the area.
The expansive eastern CONUS surface ridge shifts south and east, and
better moisture will begin to return. Rain/storm chances will return
especially in the west by Thursday afternoon and will continue to
ramp up into next weekend over the entire area with SW flow aloft
increasing ahead of a weak southern stream trough over the Southwest.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered/broken high clouds remain common overnight for the CWA.
Ongoing convection in southeast Kansas will have the potential to
sag southeast into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
late tonight/Monday morning along an outflow boundary. For now
will hold off on mentioning in TAFs due to uncertainty of coverage
and impacts to any one terminal, though will be closely monitored
through the night. During the day Monday scattered mid and high
clouds are forecast for much of the CWA. The outflow boundary
moving into the CWA could spark afternoon/evening convection
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Again, will hold
on mentioning in the TAFs with mid level ridging over the region.
Winds through the period start out southerly, become west to
southwest Monday, and then more variable afternoon/evening with
the boundary. VFR conditions are currently forecast for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  67  83 /  30  30   0   0
FSM   72  89  65  84 /  20  30   0   0
MLC   72  91  68  86 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   69  87  65  82 /  30  20   0   0
FYV   70  86  61  82 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   67  81  57  78 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   71  89  66  83 /  20  30   0   0
MIO   69  85  63  82 /  10  10   0   0
F10   70  89  66  84 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   72  92  68  84 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
833 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-020145-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
833 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms that developed this evening over north central
Oklahoma will likely continue to weaken and dissipate before
reaching northeastern Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms are forming
over southeastern Kansas. If these storms organize overnight as they
move eastward, some of this activity could affect portions of
northeastern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas late tonight.
There would be a limited severe weather risk for large hail and
damaging wind should any of this activity move into the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will continue on Monday, with heat index
values again from around 100 to 103 degrees in eastern Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas. A frontal boundary moving into the area from
the northeast may allow a few thunderstorms to develop Monday
evening and Monday night. Temperatures will not be as warm mid to
late week. Thunderstorm chances increase by the end of the week and
continue through next weekend as a slow-moving storm system
translates into the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains, setting the
stage for an unsettled period across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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