Flash Flood and Hail in Oklahoma, April 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Friday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will return
  several days this week, especially across portions of
  northwestern and far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Early this morning, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms are
moving across southwestern and central Oklahoma.  This activity may
produce small hail, brief heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.
A few global models continue develop more widespread showers and
thunderstorms across parts of south central and southeastern
Oklahoma before sunrise, while CAMs keep coverage isolated to
widely scattered. Ceiling heights across south central and
southeastern Oklahoma are roughly 4-6k feet and soundings suggest
about 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE. For now will side with more
isolated to widely scattered coverage through sunrise.

Later this afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a near a dryline.  The dryline will be located
farther east than Tuesday, so perhaps initial storm develop will be
along and east of an Enid to Lawton and Seymour, Texas line. It's
possible that upscale growth will occur quickly to an MCS or line
segments. This would limit the large hail risk to the first few
hours of development with an evolution to strong winds, smaller
hail, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A trailing shortwave trough is expected to move across the
Panhandles and western Oklahoma late Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning. Although a majority of the convection will be
confined to the eastern third of Oklahoma by late Wednesday
evening, some lingering precipitation is possible.

With mainly dry conditions expected on Thursday, focus will turn to
fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be very warm to hot, and afternoon humidity
will fall to around 10 to 15 percent across the western third of
the state including the adjacent area of northern Texas. A
southwesterly wind will be a little breezy but wind gusts are
expected to be in the 25-30 mph range.

Thursday evening and overnight, a shortwave trough will approach in
southwesterly flow aloft.  This may result widely scattered showers
and perhaps thunderstorms.  Most of this activity should be
northeast of the area by mid to late morning.

By mid afternoon Friday, a dryline is expected to sharpen across
western Oklahoma, as an upper trough approaches the northern and
central Plains. With mid to upper 60s dewpoint in place,
instability will increase to around 3000 J/kg. So if a few storms
develop along the dry, supercells are likely with a risk of very
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. By early to mid evening,
a strong cold front will begin to move across parts of western
and northern Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the
front with a risk of damaging winds and hail. The surface cold
front will clear southeastern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Northerly winds behind a cold front will continue to usher in a much
drier airmass on Saturday.  An elevated frontal boundary across
south central and southeastern Oklahoma may result in scattered
showers through the late morning/early afternoon.

With portions of western Oklahoma missing out on the recent
rainfall, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday
afternoon, especially across northwestern Oklahoma where fuels
remain receptive to fire.

With a clear sky expected and light winds, portions of northern and
western Oklahoma may see a light freeze by sunrise Sunday.
Currently, forecast temperatures are in the mid 30s, but certainly
would not be surprised to see some upper 20s to lower 30s.

After a cold start Sunday, temperatures will warm into the lower and
mid 70s by afternoon.  The wind will become a little breezy across
western Oklahoma, so maybe a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon.

A low amplitude shortwave trough will move across Texas late Sunday
into Monday.  This may result in a few showers and storms mainly
across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Sunday into Monday.

On Tuesday, a breezy southerly wind is expected with modest moisture
return.  Rain and storm chances will remain around 10 percent during
the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through mid to late morning for
sites across central Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms are possible
again this afternoon with some uncertainty in coverage. Confidence
is greatest that storms should remain east of WWR/CSM, otherwise
PROB30 was used for most other sites. Any storm that develops will
be capable of all hazards; large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes. Storms will move east out of most sites by late this
evening, except DUA may see an additional round of storms across
southeast Oklahoma into the overnight hours. Low clouds may return
in the early morning hours Thursday with MVFR ceilings in the
wake of the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  59  86  65 /  70  30   0  10
Hobart OK         86  53  90  62 /  40  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  61  91  65 /  60  10   0  10
Gage OK           83  47  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     82  56  85  64 /  60  40   0   0
Durant OK         78  64  86  66 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
847 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

OKZ047-051-052-151415-
Johnston OK-Marshall OK-Bryan OK-
847 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Johnston, northwestern Bryan and eastern Marshall Counties through
915 AM CDT...

At 847 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Texoma, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Durant, Kingston, Silo, Mead, Little City, Woodville, Nida,
northeastern Lake Texoma, and Mcbride.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9686 3418 9653 3401 9635 3390 9664
      3392 9666 3391 9668 3388 9668 3385 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 237DEG 35KT 3394 9673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

30