Drought in Oklahoma, April 14 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
655 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday, Wednesday and
  Friday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return several
  days this week, especially across portions of northwestern and
  far western Oklahoma.

- Dry and cooler weather this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern
Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models
differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across
northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to
around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40
mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers
across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but
they could enhance wind gusts.

Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the
form a lead shortwave trough.  This will bring better chances of
thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late
afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that
arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this,
models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east
of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to
be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail
and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather
quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to
mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather,
especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in
thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the
overnight hours.  However, the main upper trough will be approaching
far West Texas Wednesday morning.  Model guidance indicates showers
and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within
an area of mid-level convergence.  Confidence in this is not high,
but certainly possible.

Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be
earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A
more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance
across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However,
central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another
round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the
thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to
late evening.

Most of the day Thursday will be dry.  However, near-critcal fire
weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas Thursday afternoon.  Afternoon highs are expected to
warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity
approaching 10-15 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper
trough moves across the central and northern Rockies.  How far east
drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is
uncertain.  However, there is the potential for a small area of near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western
Oklahoma and northern Texas.  The bigger story will be the potential
for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the
afternoon and evening.  Better forcing across the northern half of
Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage.  Still a lot of detail
to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful
storms.   Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which
is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night.

The front is expected to push well to our south and east on
Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas
remaining dry.  The exception may be a few showers across southern
Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR ceilings are filling in across southeast Oklahoma including
sites like DUA and OUN. There is a chance these low ceilings
continue to spread northeastward into OKC, SPS, LAW this morning.
Therefore MVFR ceilings were introduced at previously mentioned
sites. The low clouds will lift later this morning and sites will
return to VFR. Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon
and evening with all hazards possible. PROB30 was used at most
sites given the uncertainty on exact location of storm development
this afternoon. WWR has the lowest chances for any storms as it
will likely remain west of the dryline, but CSM may also stay just
west of the dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  66  79  59 /  60  60  70  30
Hobart OK         88  63  85  53 /  50  60  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  85  67  83  59 /  60  70  60  20
Gage OK           89  56  83  48 /  20  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     87  66  80  56 /  50  50  70  40
Durant OK         82  67  78  64 /  30  50  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23