Strong Wind in Ohio, March 13, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updates to the Wind Advisory. A few counties have been upgraded
to a High Wind Warning as higher wind gusts are expected and
confidence increases in impacts. Updates to rain and winter
weather expected Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Wind advisories and high wind warnings in effect today. Very
strong maybe even damaging winds expected today with a potent
low pressure center.

2) Next chances for rain and some snow will be late Sunday night
into Tuesday. Light accumulations are expected in the mountains
Monday night with slick travel possible on Tuesday.

3) Temperatures will fluctuate over the next week. Mild to warm
temperatures expected through Monday, but a strong cold front
will drop temperatures back into the cold to frigid range Monday
night through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong, gusty winds expected across the forecast area today as
a strong low pressure center passes to our north over the Great
Lakes. A wind advisory is in effect from 8am until 8pm today
across much of the area and has recently been expanded to cover
Logan and Mingo counties. Southwest winds will be between 10 and
20 mph with gusts between 35 and 45 mph at times. The higher
end of this range will be seen across our Ohio counties and
across northern WV.

Perry and Morgan counties in OH, as well as the higher elevation
zones of Pocahontas and Randolph counties have been upgraded to
a High Wind Warning. This is in effect from 8am today until 8pm
tonight. Confidence is increasing in higher and damaging wind
gusts across these counties which will likely result in downed
trees, multiple power outages, and difficult travel. Southwest
winds between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are
expected. Models are showing a possibility for higher gusts
across the Ohio counties.

Gusty winds will gradually decrease this evening and overnight,
but lingering advisories of warnings may be needed after 8pm
across the mountains and Ohio if winds remain strong and damaging.
It is also possible that a further expansion of the wind advisory
or high wind warning may be needed.

Future wind products will likely be needed again Monday night
into Tuesday with 40 to 55 mph gusts expected across the
mountains with the passage of a strong front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Drier weather will prevail most of the weekend until late
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Watching the Monday into
Tuesday time frame for our next rain and snow event as a
stalwart low drops out of Canada and across the upper Midwest.
As a result, a deep and potent trough will move across the area
Monday into Tuesday. Models agree on this solution and timing
currently.

Rain chances increase from west to east late Sunday into Monday
morning as a result. Models show potential for a line of gusty
showers to move through Monday morning into the afternoon.
Currently, not seeing a whole lot of CAPE during the time frame
to warrant an alarming amount of severe weather, but there is
expected to be 40 to 70 knots of shear which could lead to some
some damaging winds or maybe a low-end tornado threat. Not
overly confident in a severe weather threat at this time
though, due to an early morning to mid-morning arrival of these
showers, however gusty and strong winds will be on the table.

Rain is expected to change to snow from west to east Monday
afternoon as this strong front causes temperatures to drop.
Precipitation will be all snow by late Monday evening and Monday
night. Snow is expected to continue across the area Monday
night with upslope snow showers becoming skewed to the
mountains, northern and central West Virginia, and parts of
southeastern Ohio.

Models vary on just how much snow is expected with this system,
and it is still out of range for accuracy. It does appear that
light amounts are possible Monday night through Tuesday, mostly
for the mountains. The GFS of course is very bullish putting
moderate(4"-8") to heavy(8"-12") snowfall across the area,
particularly the mountains and foothills, with bands occurring
across the southern coalfields.

More reasonable model solutions are shown in the Canadian and
Euro models. They show light snow across the lowlands with light
to moderate snowfall in occurring in the mountains. The Euro
remains very conservative though, barely giving 1-2" across the
northeastern mountains. The Canadian model shows a little more
snow with 1-3" across the lowlands and 3-6" in the mountains
with some banding occurring across the central and northern
lowlands.

At this time, there is uncertainty in the amounts that the area
will see given differences in the model output, but there is
agreement that gusty showers will move through Monday morning
before changing over to snow showers later on Monday continuing
into Tuesday. Light accumulations are possible in the mountains
leading to a slick Tuesday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures will be in a bit of disarray over the next week.
The area will see a decent warm up today in comparison to
yesterday with the lowlands reaching the upper 50s and lower
60s. Much of the same is expected Saturday, though about 3-5
degrees cooler. A much warmer day is in store Sunday with 70s on
the board for the lowlands.

Warmer temperatures will linger into Monday ahead of a strong
cold front, but many locations will fall back into the 40s and
30s Monday afternoon as this front crosses. Low temperatures
Monday night will be frigid with much of the areas in the teens
and low 20s. Winds will be very gusty leading to wind chills in
the negative digits across the mountains. High temperatures on
Tuesday may only reach the lower 30s across the lowlands with
the mountains staying in the teens and 20s.

A gradual warming trend looks ot occur Wednesday with the
lowlands rising into the mid to high 40s with 30s and lower 40s
in the mountains. This warming trend will then continue through
the balance of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through the period with BKN and SCT
clouds moving through today between 15,000 and 25,000 feet AGL.

Winds will be light and SE'rly this morning, but a strong low
passes to our north today resulting in strong, gusty winds.
Winds will gradually shift SW'rly between ~11-13z with gusts
increasing between 25 and 40 knots by mid-morning. Locally
higher gusts are possible at PKB and CKB as the highest gusts
will occur across SE OH and northern WV. Winds will diminish
some after ~00z Saturday, but will remain gusty at some sites
past then.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing and magnitude of strong wind
gusts may vary today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        FRI 03/13/26
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
     High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ075-076-083>087.
     High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for OHZ066-067.
KY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC