What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 12:21 PM EST, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms accompany a weak front into the Mid Ohio Valley and parts of northern and central WV later this afternoon into the evening.
- 2) Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorm risk continues Sunday night through Monday, but with a lot of unknowns.
- 3) Seasonably warm with increasing shower/storm chances later next week into the upcoming weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 12:21 PM EST, 5 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
121 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased shower/thunderstorm coverage a bit later this
afternoon into the evening with a shower or storm now possible
as far south as Huntington and Charleston during the evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms
accompany a weak front into the Mid Ohio Valley and parts of
northern and central WV later this afternoon into the evening.
- 2) Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorm risk continues
Sunday night through Monday, but with a lot of unknowns.
- 3) Seasonably warm with increasing shower/storm chances later
next week into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak cold front is working southeastward across OH at midday.
Hires models show a minor increase in moisture and instability
ahead of this front as it works into the Mid Ohio Valley and
parts of WV later today into tonight. It's not much, but a few
hundred J of CAPE with PWATS of 1.25-1.50 inches should be
enough to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms. These may get as far south as the I-64
corridor before everything stabilizes overnight leaving just
some patchy fog to pester locations that get an evening
downpour.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Models continue to point to a potent disturbance moving across
the Ohio Valley on Sunday into Monday spawning strong to severe
thunderstorms well to our west during the day Sunday. There is
still a lot of unknowns regarding how well these storms hold
together as they move east into our area late Sunday night. The
atmosphere will be stable early, but warmer, more unstable air
will advect into the region overnight. This could be a similar
situation to Thursday, where temps and dewpoints rise
considerably overnight allowing storms to remain strong as they
move into the region during what is normally a not so favorable
time of day.
Uncertainty then bleeds over into the day on Monday as some
models, i.e. the NAM, show very little morning activity which
allows us to rapidly destabilize during the day increasing the
severe weather threat. Other models such as the RRFS give more
play to the morning activity with not as much destabilization
during the day. These details will be worked out in time, but
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday,
pushing to our east Monday night.
PWATs approach 2 inches so plenty of moisture and repeating
rounds of showers/storms definitely pose a flash flood threat
just about anywhere, but especially in areas hit hard with
recent rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Surface high pressure builds into the region midweek but we
remain close to an upper level trough which wants to hang out
over the Great Lakes for the rest of the week. With that in
place, no big warmup can occur and disturbances can periodically
kick off some showers and thunderstorms. This appears most
likely as we get to Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak front will drop southeast through the region this
afternoon into the early evening. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front into
the Mid Ohio Valley and perhaps as far south as HTS and CRW
during the evening. This potential was indicated with VCSH
mention right now with not enough confidence to introduce TS at
this time. If a terminal receives a good downpour, then fog will
become more of a concern late in the night, otherwise fog
should remain patchy and mainly confined to the valleys. West
winds will gust up to 15 kts or so for the rest of the
afternoon, then diminish quickly by evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR or worse possible in fog following any
downpours this afternoon/evening.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR conditions possible Sunday night through
Monday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 20, 4:40 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
540 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
OHZ066-067-202215-
Morgan OH-Perry OH-
540 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...
At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Somerset, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Crooksville and Glenford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3991 8217 3982 8217 3982 8208 3977 8208
3976 8192 3970 8198 3984 8235 3992 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 289DEG 27KT 3986 8225
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 5:15 PM EST, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
615 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
OHZ067-202300-
Morgan OH-
615 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM EDT...
At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of McConnelsville, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McConnelsville, Malta, Bristol, and Eagleport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3975 8164 3974 8164 3957 8173 3969 8203
3973 8202 3973 8208 3976 8208 3977 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 293DEG 23KT 3975 8199
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 5:41 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
OHZ083-084-202315-
Jackson OH-Vinton OH-
641 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND VINTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...
At 641 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Mcarthur, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wellston, Mcarthur, Hamden, Zaleski, Allensville, Creola, Eagle
Mills, and Radcliffe.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3929 8276 3937 8271 3936 8264 3937 8263
3937 8252 3931 8230 3929 8230 3929 8226
3927 8226 3908 8243 3926 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 297DEG 25KT 3931 8265
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 5:47 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
OHZ067-076-202330-
Washington OH-Morgan OH-
647 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...
At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beverly, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Beverly, Williamstown, Lowell, Bristol, Macksburg, Lower
Salem, Hackney, and Devola.
This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 17.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3971 8164 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8158
3958 8148 3965 8147 3963 8145 3962 8141
3961 8141 3961 8140 3960 8139 3960 8136
3957 8127 3940 8142 3941 8146 3960 8181
3974 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 300DEG 27KT 3963 8170
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPSpecial weather statement, Jun 20, 6:12 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
712 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
OHZ084>086-202345-
Meigs OH-Gallia OH-Vinton OH-
712 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MEIGS...
NORTHEASTERN GALLIA AND SOUTHEASTERN VINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...
At 712 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mcarthur, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pomeroy, Rutland, Middleport, Zaleski, Wilkesville, Radcliffe,
Dyesville, Darwin, Salem Center, Harrisonville, Dexter, Kyger, and
Carpenter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3924 8226 3920 8227 3920 8213 3913 8191
3902 8204 3895 8211 3911 8243 3914 8243
3914 8248 3915 8251 3929 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 297DEG 31KT 3918 8240
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JP