Tornado and Flash Flooding in Kansas, June 20 to 23, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
144 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible across the entire area this
  afternoon and evening, mainly between 3-10 pm MDT. 2" hail,
  70 mph wind gusts, a few tornadoes, blowing dust and localized
  flash flooding are all possible.

- Additional storms may develop over portions of northwest KS
  and southwest NE late tonight and early Sunday morning. Large
  hail and strong winds are possible with overnight storms.

- Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds are possible, yet again, Sunday afternoon and
  evening, mainly between 2-9 PM MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Today, a low that's been sitting in the lee of the Rockies will move
across the Central Plains. Highs today are forecast to warm into the
mid 80s to mid 90s, with warmest locations in the southwestern CWA.
Thanks to that low moving east, the pressure gradient will increase,
allowing southerly winds to gust into the 25-35 kts range, but
occasional gusts up around 40 kts are expected.

In the mid-afternoon is when we expect to see the bulk of that low
enter the western CWA. This is when we expect to see convection
begin, likely around 21-23Z. Initially, cells look to cluster into a
broken line of convection on the west side of the Colorado border,
extending across the entire length of the CWA. Within 2-4 hours, it
looks to morph into a linear cluster or messy QLCS with additional
cells potentially forming ahead of the storm and being ingested in
northwestern Kansas. This increases the risk for merging
cells/tornadoes as it approaches and passes KS 25. This wave of
storms will be the main threat for this event with the peak severe
threat looks to be between 23-4Z. All hazards will be possible,
including hail, wind, blowing dust, flash flooding, and a tornado or
two. Most significant, realistic hazards look to include hail up to
or exceeding 3.5 inches, winds nearing 80-90 MPH, multiple
tornadoes, and a wall of dust created from outflow. This wave looks
to exit the CWA around 4-6Z.

There is a second wave of convection that guidance is really picking
up on now. This second wave looks to form near the Nebraska pan,
handle and move to the southeast. Most likely time this wave to
impact the CWA will be between 4-8Z. 60-70 MPH winds and hail up to
2 inches look to be the main threat from the second wave, as well as
flash flooding. The tornadic threat is low but not 0 for these
storms. The severe threat looks to be ending by 9Z, but lingering
showers and storms may persist until closer to sunrise. For more
information about the flooding threat, please see the hydro section
below.

Tonight, as convection and the low finally exit the CWA, winds will
weaken and become northerly. Lingering cloud cover will work to keep
lows in the mid 50s and mid 60s. There is a chance for patchy fog
Sunday morning across most of the CWA.

Sunday, another 500 mb low will create another 850 mb and surface
low that will sweep across the southern portions of the Northern
Plains. This will extend a cold front through the CWA, sparking off
more storms in the afternoon hours. Before that, highs are expected
to be nearly identical to Saturday's, maybe a few degrees cooler.
Convection looks to start in two locations. The northern section
looks to form just north of Yuma and Dundy counties, and move
southeast. The southern storms look to form around Flager and Wild
Horse and move east. 21-23Z looks to be the start time, and these
storms, if they do move in their respective directions, would
cluster together around the Colby/Hoxie area. Hail up around in the
1-2 inch range and winds up around 60-70 MPH are the primary
threats. Convection looks to weaken around 9Z again. Lows Sunday
night do look to be a bit cooler Sunday night behind the cold front,
likely dropping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

***Monday-Wednesday***

Thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday through Wednesday. A 500-mb
trough traversing the Northern United States and Southern Canada
along with a shortwave ridge over the forecast region looks to
produce a surface low pressure across portions of Colorado Monday. A
convergence zone would be favored to develop somewhere near
Colorado's eastern border, though its exact location and timing of
formation is in question. Most LREF solutions suggest that this
convergence zone will be associated with around 1200 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) or less, though
higher-end scenarios could see up to around 2000 J/kg. At the same
time a 500-mb jet streak at the base of the trough looks to be
strengthening during the afternoon and evening hours. GFS and EC
model soundings indicate that this development could support
0-6 km vertical wind shear of 35-60 kts along the convergence
boundary. Storms may be allowed to become severe under this
scenario. While all hazards may be possible with this setup,
this may need to be refined as we get closer to the event, as
thunderstorms in the short term may modify the environment
significantly before then.

The risk for thunderstorms continue Tuesday. 850-mb GEFS
guidance still shows a low across portions of Colorado, at the
same time that the 500-mb trough from Monday moves overhead.
This would produce another zone of convergence across the CWA
where northerly and southerly surface winds meet. In addition,
the 500-mb jet streak looks to remain in place. This pattern
may linger into Wednesday afternoon and evening as well.
Surface-based CAPE values may be allowed to get a little higher
on Tuesday and Wednesday than Monday, as portions of Eastern
Colorado and Northwest Kansas have greater than a 50% chance to
see over 1000 J/kg based on LREF guidance. Severe thunderstorms
would continue to be possible as vertical shear provided by the
upper-level jet remains in place. For each day Monday through
Wednesday, confidence is around 10-15% in severe thunderstorms
occurring.

***Thursday-Saturday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is consistent with
ridging moving in overhead Thursday and Friday. This could promote
warmer temperatures going into the weekend. Highs are currently in
the mid 70s to lower 80s Thursday, lower to upper 80s on Friday, and
lower to mid 90s on Saturday. Thunderstorm potential may still
continue Thursday and Friday, though is a lot more uncertain than
Monday through Wednesday. If and when thunderstorms occur is
contingent on the presence and timing of upper-level shortwave
troughs embedded in the ridge. GFS and EC deterministic guidance
does show that these features may be present. Confidence is
increasing in the presence of these shortwaves on Thursday, as NBM
24-hr precipitation guidance shows that most of the area has a 50-
70% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation.
This confidence decreases Friday, as the same guidance shows at
best a 1 in 3 chance for greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation across nearly the entire area. The thunderstorm
risk appears to diminish almost entirely by Saturday as ridging
takes full affect. Forecast guidance does indicate relative
humidities dropping into the teens in portions of Eastern
Colorado Saturday afternoon. As such, the potential development
of critical fire weather conditions on Saturday is something to
keep an eye on as we approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KGLD will se VFR conditions prevail until around 22-23Z, when
storms move in from the west. Winds are expected to be from
south gusting around 30-35 kts this afternoon. These are
forecast to be severe storms that last until around 1-4Z. We are
expecting IFR ceilings to return around 10Z and lift around
15Z.

KMCK will see the MVFR ceilings break apart lift by 19Z as
southerly winds also gust in the 30-35 kts range. Storms look to
impact KMCK around 23-01Z, weakening around 3-5Z, but lingering
through most of the night. IFR and near minimum ceilings are
forecast for tomorrow morning, starting to lift near the tail
end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of
convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also
expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep
melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

Today is the most aggressive day coming up, two waves of storms are
possible. The first wave is expected to quickly move through the
CWA, but as it moves east of U.S. 83, back-building convection may
lead to training storms. This would likely occur around 3-6Z, ahead
of the second wave. The second wave has a 40% chance of being
oriented along it's direction of travel, making it a training storm
system. Timing for this threat would be around 5-9Z. Each of these
two threats could produce a swath of 1.5-3 inches of rain, but if
they overlap, 3-5 inches of rain may accumulate. Most likely area to
see these high precipitation amounts will be east of a line from
Trenton, NE to Oakley, KS.

A Flood Watch has not been issued due to a lack of confidence for
location of the highest rainfall amounts. One may be issued later if
a specific location seems to be at more of a risk.

Sunday, additional high precipitation storms are forecast to move
through the area. By themselves, they pose little flooding threat,
but if they move over an already saturated area, the flooding risk
returns.

Through Friday, there are returning chances of precipitation across
the CWA. Similar to Sunday, if storms keep passing over the same,
saturated area, flooding becomes a reoccurring risk.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-212045-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
239 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 /339 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A tornado watch is in effect for counties along and north of a
Cheyenne Wells, CO to Russell Springs and Gove, KS line through 9 PM
MDT or 10 PM CDT. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9
PM MDT or 10 PM CDT for Greeley and Wichita counties. Severe storms
are forecast across the entire area this afternoon and evening. 2
inch hail, 70 mph wind gusts, a few tornadoes, blowing dust and flash
flooding are all possible. These storms may pose a significant risk
to life and property. If traveling, be prepared for dramatic changes
in wind speed and rapid reductions in visibility near any
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Severe storms may return Sunday and Monday afternoons. 1 inch hail
and 60 MPH winds are the primary hazards from these storms, which
pose a risk for life and property.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.