Damaging Winds in North Dakota, April 22, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
805 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions across most of western and
  much of southern North Dakota this evening.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms from south central into
  eastern North Dakota this evening and tonight. A few of these
  could be on the stronger side with gusty winds. An isolated
  strong storm with gusty winds could also brush the far
  northwest this evening.

- High chances of rain west and low to medium chances of rain
  central on Thursday, followed by low chances of wrap around
  showers, mostly in the form of snow, Thursday night through
  Saturday.

- Strong west to northwest winds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Isolated showers with occasional lightning have developed from
Lake Oahe through the northern James River Valley, and more
recently as far north as the Turtle Mountains. A handful of wind
gusts around 50 mph have been measured under and near this
activity, but on a more consistent basis, peak gusts have been
closer to 40 mph or less. A relatively stronger storm was
poised to enter southern Emmons County as of 8 PM CDT.

Attempts at convective initiation have been made in northwest
North Dakota over the past couple hours, but only a couple of
rain showers have been able to materialize with no lightning
observed as of 8 PM CDT. Further south, an increase in synoptic
scale winds has been observed early this evening throughout
southwest North Dakota between a surface dryline and cold front.
The Red Flag Warning may need to be extended in time for this
part of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

As of 1 PM winds across western ND were mainly in the 15 to 25
mph range, with humidities 25 to 35 percent. Wind directions
were southerly over southwest ND to easterly over northwest ND.
Across the south central winds were southeast at 15 to 25 mph
with humidities around 35 to 40 percent. Additional Fire Weather
info is contained in the Fire Weather Section.

As the Montana surface low pushes into northeast Montana this
afternoon, increasing moisture is being pulled northward from
the central Plains. A modestly unstable, but capped atmosphere
currently over eastern SD will continue to advect northward into
eastern ND this evening, with a band of unstable air working all
the way back west into northwest ND. These two areas (Northwest
ND) and the far south central into the James River Valley are
the focus for thunderstorm activity tonight. In the far south
central and James River Valley, the atmosphere is expected to
remain capped. However, with instability aloft and an increasing
low level jet this evening, there could be some isolated to
scattered elevated convection that lifts northeast through the
area. With strong environmental winds in place A strong to
marginally severe wind gust could mix down to the surface. Some
small is also possible. In the northwest, very steep lapse rates
have developed over eastern Montana. Isolated high based
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the evening,
mostly over eastern Montana, but there is a low threat that an
isolated storm could brush the far west central into northwest
ND, near the border. These storms would have the potential for
winds gust to around 60 mph.

On Thursday, the surface low lifts into southern Manitoba and we
see strong wind develop over western North Dakota Thursday
morning and eventually spread into central ND by late morning or
afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicate there is 50 to 60 knots of
wind at the top of the mixing layer. The question is if this can
mix down to the surface. Some of our general guidance such as
the ECMWF EFI are not real impressive with the winds Thursday,
but certainly in the Advisory criteria in the west. The NAEFS SA
pages does show a nice 850mb and 700mb jet into Far southwest ND
around Midday Thursday. Guidance shows the surface low lifting
north in the afternoon with the surface gradient relaxing a bit,
so the confidence in strong winds advancing east through central
ND is low at this time. If this did occur, it wouldn't be until
Thursday afternoon and into the evening, therefore week did not
extend the Wind Advisory through central ND and later shifts
will have the chance to evaluate further.

Except for any convection this evening, and morning wrap around
showers in the northwest Thursday morning through mid afternoon,
much of the day over most of the forecast area is expected to be
dry. Much of the west and central is in the dry slot late
tonight, and as the surface and upper low lifts north and
wobbles back to the west into Saskatchewan, much of the state
remains within an unfavorable position for any significant
precipitation Thursday into Thursday night. Then as we get into
late Thursday night through Friday night, the stacked now drops
back south to along the International Border. This will keep
some low precipitation chances to northern portions of the
forecast area. By this time we are cool enough that they may
fall as either rain or snow. However, any significant
accumulations are not anticipated at this time. Saturday and
Sunday into next week we see a slow gradual increase in
temperatures with hit and miss precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible near KXWA this evening, and to
the east of KBIS and KMOT into the overnight hours. The main
hazard from showers and storms is erratic wind gusts.

On Thursday morning, and area of rain with MVFR ceilings will
move into western North Dakota. The rain is forecast to lift
northeastward and diminish through the afternoon while MVFR
ceilings persist in the west and expand into central North
Dakota. Some snow could mix with the rain along the Montana
border.

Winds will remain gusty this evening through tonight, generally
southwesterly to southerly around 10-20 kts. Low level wind
shear will impact central and eastern North Dakota later this
evening into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will become
strong on Thursday, with sustained speeds around 25-35 kts and
gusts up to 45 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue across western and far
southern North Dakota early this evening. The Red Flag Warning
may need to be extended in time in the southwest.

For Thursday, expect windy to very windy conditions out of the
west before becoming northwest in the afternoon in western ND.
Low rain chances are present across central North Dakota in the
afternoon, with medium chances in the west and especially
northwest. This will maintain relative humidity values in excess
of 40 percent across most of the state. That said, lower values
down to around 25 percent are possible mainly in the James
River Valley. Winds in the James River Valley will be initially
strong from the south, then shift southwest to west and increase
later in the afternoon. near critical fire weather conditions
are expected in the James River Valley due to the strong winds
and low humdities. Should the wind shift be delayed, it's
possible that Critical fire weather conditions could occur. Will
need to monitor the far south central into the James River
Valley Thursday for Critical Fire Weather conditions.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Thursday for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NDZ002-003-010-019-020-035-042-046-055>062.

&&

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Hollan
FIRE WEATHER...TWH/Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>033-040>044-059>062-231930-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Western Morton-
Eastern Morton-Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /125 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible in far northwest North Dakota
late this afternoon into mid evening. Strong gusty winds will be
possible with any storm that develops. At this time severe storms
are not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Wind Advisory has been issued for western and portions of
central North Dakota for Thursday. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details. Strong winds are possible again on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-231930-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Kidder-
Stutsman-
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible in the James
River Valley on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ002-003-010-035-055>058-231930-
Burke-Renville-Mountrail-Burleigh-Northwest Ward-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Wind Advisory has been issued for western and portions of
central North Dakota for Thursday. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details. Strong winds are possible again on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ046>048-050-051-231930-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect today. See weather.gov/bis for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Wind Advisory has been issued for western and portions of
central North Dakota for Thursday. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible in the
James River Valley Thursday. Strong winds are possible again on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ001-009-017-230230-
McKenzie ND-Divide ND-Williams ND-
841 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MCKENZIE...WILLIAMS AND
DIVIDE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
producing strong wind gusts across northern McKenzie, Williams, and
Divide Counties.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Williston, Watford City, Crosby, Tioga, Ray, Grenora, Alexander,
Westby, Noonan, Arnegard, Wildrose, Epping, Alamo, Fortuna, Writing
Rock State Historical Site, Bonetrail, Hanks City, Alkabo, Fort Union
Trading Post, and East Fairview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10294 4872 10294 4872 10289 4838 10289
      4837 10283 4812 10282 4767 10311 4774 10404
      4900 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 190DEG 31KT 4812 10450 4855 10363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
855 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ035>037-046-047-050-230245-
Kidder ND-Logan ND-McIntosh ND-Stutsman ND-Burleigh ND-Emmons ND-
855 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
KIDDER...SOUTHEASTERN BURLEIGH...LOGAN...WESTERN MCINTOSH...EMMONS
AND SOUTHWESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 853 PM CDT, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were
producing strong wind gusts across south central North Dakota.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Linton, Wishek, Napoleon, Steele, Strasburg, Gackle, Medina,
Hazelton, Tappen, Streeter, Sterling, Zeeland, Cleveland, Lehr,
Hague, Dawson, Braddock, Venturia, Lake Isabel, and Driscoll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4628 10050 4692 10045 4690 9885 4594 9949
      4595 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 215DEG 36KT 4641 10035 4616 9957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOLLAN