What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 22, 1:29 PM EST, 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Strong storms possible into this evening with main threat of gusty winds mainly south of I-80 through around 9pm.
- Unseasonably mild today through Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
- More storms Friday and early next week.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 22, 1:29 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
229 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong storms possible into this evening with main threat of
gusty winds mainly south of I-80 through around 9pm.
- Unseasonably mild today through Friday with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 degrees.
- More storms Friday and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
A weak disturbance and associated frontal boundary will push
southeasterly this evening. Ahead of this disturbance is decent
surface instability with values of 1500-2500 J/kg due to the
unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Marginal mid-level lapse rates of 6-7 deg/km and bulk
shear values mainly less than 20 kts will keep the storms
relatively unorganized and on the weak side, however as seen
already today over Lake Michigan a fairly organized and slow
moving storm had developed in the close proximity to the
boundary. So storms will mainly remain the garden variety but a
few isolated storms could become stronger. The main threat would
be gusty outflow winds, forecasted downdraft CAPE values around
500-800 J/kg will be available. Some small hail would also be
possible but should remain less than 0.75 inch. These storms
will move southeastward with the disturbance through the evening
and expected to push out of the area around 9-10 PM EDT.
Thursday looks to remain quiet weather wise through the majority
of the day with again a continuation of much above normal
temperatures with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s.
An approaching cool frontal boundary begins to push
southeastward on Friday bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures with the
increase in clouds with highs on Friday in the 70s. Into the
weekend cooler temperatures although still slightly above normal
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for both Saturday and
Sunday. A few remaining showers will persist on Saturday but
Sunday looks to be dry and should be a fairly nice spring day
with ridging pushing in from the west.
By Monday into Tuesday another trough will move eastward into
the area increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across the
area. As mentioned in the previous discussion WPC rainfall
forecast still has around 0.75-1.00 inch on Monday which may
hamper river levels from dropping as fast and even may bring
some slight increases. Of course, this is depending on where
exactly the rain falls that will determine which rivers are
affected and by how much. Definitely will continue to keep an
eye on this potential. High temperatures in the 70s on Monday
and cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in
the 60s and rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
As of 1630Z, one storm has developed over southern Lake Michigan
on the warm side of a stationary front located near Grand
Rapids. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop this
afternoon between 18-21Z across northern Indiana south of I-80
and sink southeast through the evening. Outside of scattered
storms this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions prevail. Have
maintained chances for storms between 19-23Z at KFWA with
potential for MVFR ceilings and visibilities. In any storms,
small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain will all be possible
hazards. After sunset, any remaining showers and storms should
dissipate and winds will become light and variable.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...Andersen/Skipper
AVIATION...Johnson
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 22, 3:32 AM EST, 10 hours 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
432 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-230845-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
432 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /332 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist
into early tonight. Wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail are likely
with the stronger storms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Additional thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night as
well as late Monday into Monday night.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
LMZ043-046-230845-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
432 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday into Friday evening and
again early next week. Conditions may be hazardous to small craft on
Saturday.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 22, 1:36 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
236 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
MIZ079-221900-
St. Joseph MI-
236 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Schoolcraft, or near Three Rivers, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Three Rivers, Centreville, Colon, Nottawa, Flowerfield, Leonidas,
Mendon, Moore Park, Fishers Lake, Fairfax, Howardsville, Wasepi, and
Findley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4187 8530 4187 8552 4198 8574 4207 8572
4207 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 279DEG 31KT 4203 8557
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MCSSpecial weather statement, Apr 22, 1:39 PM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
INZ008-017-116-221915-
Whitley IN-Noble IN-Northern Kosciusko IN-
239 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NOBLE...
NORTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND NORTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT...
At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North Webster, or 9 miles northwest of Tri-lakes, moving east at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Churubusco, North Webster, Etna, Green Center, Merriam, Wilmot, Blue
Lake, James Lake, Big Lake, Knapp Lake, Loon Lake, Ormas, Wolflake,
Bear Lake, and Tippecanoe Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4138 8530 4126 8531 4118 8531 4132 8576
4140 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 287DEG 26KT 4133 8558
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
AndersenSpecial weather statement, Apr 22, 1:48 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
INZ014-015-116-216-221915-
Southern Kosciusko IN-Marshall IN-Northern Kosciusko IN-Fulton IN-
248 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL KOSCIUSKO...NORTH
CENTRAL FULTON AND NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...
At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Plymouth, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Bourbon, Argos, Mentone, Tippecanoe, Etna Green, Hoffman
Lake, Inwood, Atwood, Old Tip Town, Linkville, Lake Of The Woods,
Talma, and Clunette.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4135 8638 4146 8626 4131 8590 4110 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 306DEG 15KT 4134 8626
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MCSSpecial weather statement, Apr 22, 1:56 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
256 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
MIZ081-221930-
Hillsdale MI-
256 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HILLSDALE COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 256 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hillsdale, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hillsdale, Cambria, Pittsford, Ransom, Waldron, Prattville,
Shadyside, Betzer, Osseo, and Frontier.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4186 8436 4171 8436 4171 8450 4181 8468
4192 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 290DEG 20KT 4185 8459
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MCSSpecial weather statement, Apr 22, 2:01 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
MIZ079-221930-
St. Joseph MI-
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Centreville, or near Three Rivers, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Sturgis, Centreville, Colon, Nottawa, Burr Oak, Wasepi, Findley,
Fairfax, and Fishers Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4196 8529 4182 8530 4181 8542 4188 8556
4194 8560 4201 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 299DEG 15KT 4195 8555
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MCSSpecial weather statement, Apr 22, 2:09 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
309 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
INZ015-216-221945-
Southern Kosciusko IN-Fulton IN-
309 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO AND
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 309 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Mentone, or 7 miles northeast of Rochester, moving
southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Akron, Mentone, Silver Lake, Claypool, Burket, Beaver Dam Lake,
Sevastopol, Beaver Dam, Talma, and Palestine.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4100 8608 4115 8617 4117 8608 4117 8606
4118 8605 4121 8595 4107 8583 4104 8593
4104 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 322DEG 11KT 4114 8609
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MCS