Drought in North Carolina, May 1 to 31, 2026

Name: Drought in North Carolina, May 1 to 31, 2026
Start: 2026-05-01T00:00
End: 2026-05-31T00:00
Location: North Carolina

May 1 to 31, 2026 · NWS RNK · 9 events in 9 counties and zones

00 inches. This ended up being 50 to 75 percent of normal for that period, with locally lower percentiles in the 25 to 50 percent of normal.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 9

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.

Extreme Drought conditions remained across north central North Carolina, and Exceptional Drought conditions expanded into northwest North Carolina in early and late May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 6.00-8.00 inches, with locally lower totals of 4.00-6.00 inches. This ended up being 50 to 75 percent of normal for that period, with locally lower percentiles in the 25 to 50 percent of normal. These continued dry conditions combined with the dry fall and early winter conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, January, February, March, and April contributed to a continued decline in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Yadkin, New, and Dan River basins, which were all observed to be around the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 6:20 PM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

1) Deep South storm system may bring some rain for the southern parts of the area this weekend. Cold air moves in and may provide another round of frost Sunday morning. 2) Next best chance of rain for the entire area is the middle of next week.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 6:20 PM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Frost
Advisories are still in effect for portions of southeast West
Virginia and the Alleghany Highlands Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Deep South storm system may bring some rain for the southern
parts of the area this weekend. Cold air moves in
and may provide another round of frost Sunday morning.

2) Next best chance of rain for the entire area is the middle
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Deep South storm system may bring some rain for
the southern parts of the area this weekend. Cold air moves in
and may provide another round of frost Sunday morning.

A large mid-level cutoff low centered over Canada is likely to
persist for the next several days, rotating shortwaves around it.
One of these shortwaves will swing around from the Canadian Great
Plains and nudge northward an approaching shortwave traveling
from Baja California. While the Deep South will receive the bulk
of the rain from this system, it may be just north enough to
provide precipitation for counties along and south of US-460.
Rainfall totals, however, are not very impressive with a quarter
of an inch of rain projected for the North Carolina counties.
Given worsening drought conditions, we'll take any rain we can
get.

Colder air will follow the weekend system and make things
chilly for May standards. Sunday morning temperatures,
especially along and west of the Blue Ridge, will be around
freezing. Light winds and clearing skies may support another
round of frost for the area. Any headlines regarding frost or
freezing conditions will likely be decided as early as tomorrow
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Next best chance of rain for entire area is the middle
of next week.

The next best chance of rain for the region will be in the form of
another frontal system in the middle of next week. Model guidance
has agreement on the formation and passage of this front, but
details get murky on the timing. The front looks to slow down as it
approaches and may fight for space against the western portion of a
surface high over the Atlantic. Since this event is about a week
out, it is too early to know of any potential severe weather to
the area or general impacts. This system will be monitored as
we get closer to its arrival date.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Mostly clear skies this evening, then becoming scattered and
remain VFR overnight into Friday. Breezy conditions this evening
will subside overnight, but become breezy again tomorrow
afternoon.

The lack of wind and cool temperatures tonight are supportive
of fog development but cloud cover advancing in during the early
morning hours may inhibit its distribution. Once the sun rises,
any fog will dissipate and terminals will resume their VFR
status.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR conditions will be possible for at least two
opportunities in the following days. One is this weekend as a
storm system to our south moves northeastward. The rain and
possible thunderstorms from this event will provide the highest
chances of precipitation for KLYH and KDAN. Rule of thumb is,
the further south you go, the greater your chances for rain. The
cold front will send additional cold air through so depending
on how much rain falls, there may be a round of fog for at least
KDAN.

The next event will be around the middle of the following week.
This frontal system looks to be more potent and provide rain
and sub- VFR conditions for all terminals. Given this system is
about a week away, it is way too early to determine the timing,
duration, and intensity associated with it.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     VAZ019-020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     WVZ043-044-507-508.

&&

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG/RCS

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 1:58 PM EST, 10 hours 2 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
258 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042-011900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
258 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ019-020-WVZ043-044-507-508-011900-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
258 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Frost Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

9 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Alleghany

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Alleghany forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.491, -81.127 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions remained in Alleghany county through the month of May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 6.00-8.00 inches, which ended up being 50 to 75 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the New River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Ashe

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Ashe forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.434, -81.500 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Exceptional Drought conditions expanded into Ashe county through May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 6.00-8.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the New River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Caswell

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Caswell forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.393, -79.334 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Caswell county through late April into early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Dan River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Rockingham

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Rockingham forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.396, -79.775 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Rockingham county through early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Dan River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Stokes

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Stokes forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.402, -80.240 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Stokes county through early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Dan River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Surry

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Surry forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.415, -80.687 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Surry county through early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Dan River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Watauga

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Watauga forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.231, -81.696 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Watauga county through early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 6.00-8.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Watauga River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Wilkes

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Wilkes forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.206, -81.163 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Exceptional Drought conditions expanded into, and worsened across Wilkes county through early to late May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Yadkin River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

Drought, Yadkin

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 12:00 AM EST
Where: Yadkin forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.161, -80.665 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme Drought conditions expanded, and worsened across Yadkin county through early May after the previous several months of February, March, and April recorded precipitation totals of 4.00-6.00 inches, which ended up being 25 to 50 percent of normal for that period. These dry conditions combined with the dry fall conditions leading up to below average rainfall in November, December, and January, contributed to a rapid decrease in groundwater and soil moisture in this region, where observed values for each had fallen to at or below the 10th percentile for groundwater, and 2nd percentile for soil moisture in the first 0-100 cm based off the NASA SPoRT LIS data estimated on the 1st of May. Streamflows similarly decreased across the area. This included the Yadkin River, which was observed to be below the 10th percentile per the USGS WaterWatch website and, in some cases, were near record-low flows.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in North Carolina in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in North Carolina, May 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1346047, 1346053, 1346074, 1346077, 1346094, 1346099, 1346108, 1346115, 1346120.