Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, May 13, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of precipitation were expanded in spacial and temporal
coverage tomorrow with the wrap around precipitation. Early next
weeks high temperatures were coordinated with WPC to lower
them to not have widespread 90s with increase in potential cloud
cover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front moves through this afternoon and evening with a
threat of some stronger storms with gusty winds in the Finger
Lakes into the western Twin Tiers. Cool weather and wrap around
precipitation continues through tomorrow.

2) Warm up begins this weekend with a large scale pattern shift,
high temperatures climb into the 80s and perhaps a few areas to
reach the 90s early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES 1...

Rain and clouds have persisted along I-81 and east, though the
Finger Lakes into the western Southern Tier have seen clearing
with temperatures warming into the 60s. A line of thunderstorms
have developed along the cold front with a few strong gusts of
over 50 mph that have been observed on the NYSM. Confidence has
increased that the storms will be able to hold together into the
Finger Lakes down towards Bradford County in PA where
temperatures have risen into the 60s. Another indication that
the atmosphere has become more unstable is the stable wave
clouds in place this morning have given way to cumulus clouds.
Surface based CAPE has risen to 500 to 1000 J/kg with effective
bulk shear around 30 knots. Parameters are on the low end for
severe but isolated gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible.

Once the front is through, a coastal low develops near Southern
New England tonight into tomorrow. As this low deepens, wrap
around moisture keeps clouds and rain showers around tomorrow
for most of the region. Terrain enhancement in the Catskills
could lead to a few areas to get near an inch of rain though
most of the area will just see intermittent light rain showers.
Chances of precipitation were expanded through the morning into
the early afternoon to cover this wrap around precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The long wave trough that has been persistent over the last
several weeks will break down this weekend with flow becoming
more zonal and even some ridging by the end of the weekend. 850
mb temperatures go from around freezing up to over 10C by
Saturday night and even approaching 20C Monday into Tuesday.
High temperatures in the 80s are likely next week and perhaps
some 90 degree readings in the Wyoming Valley. RH fields aloft
have trended a little more saturated so clouds are uncertain so
decided to back off from original forecast highs Monday and
Tuesday and dropped them 3 to 5 degrees from previous forecast.
Lower elevations are on the drier side so despite the much
warmer temperatures, dew points remain in the 50s to low 60s
helping to keep heat indices in check.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will be pushing through the region early this
evening. At this time, confidence for thunderstorms on station
is highest at ITH and ELM, but elsewhere, confidence is too low
to put into the forecast at this time and any storms will be
handled with amendments. Winds will be gusty at times this
afternoon out of the south and winds will be erratic in showers
and thunderstorms. Behind the front, wind will turn light and
variable overnight. Fog and low stratus may develop late
tonight, but forecast confidence in timing and intensity is low,
with ELM the most likely site to see IFR restrictions from fog.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Isolated to
scattered showers with occasional restrictions possible.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG/MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
304 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYZ016-017-131945-
Southern Cayuga NY-Seneca NY-
310 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SENECA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lodi, or 11 miles northeast of Dundee, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ledyard, Aurora, Ovid, Interlaken, Lodi, Levanna, Venice Center, King
Ferry, Lodi Station, and Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near central Cayuga Lake near Sheldrake, get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 7680 4266 7690 4288 7661 4274 7646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 230DEG 28KT 4264 7682

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
337 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYZ017-018-132000-
Onondaga NY-Southern Cayuga NY-
337 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CAYUGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fleming, or near Auburn, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Owasco, Fleming, Skaneateles, Marcellus, Camillus, Elbridge,
Melrose Park, Bennetts Corners, and Cedarvale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 7656 4287 7666 4312 7640 4296 7619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 226DEG 35KT 4286 7656

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kistner

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
355 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     Hail             1 SSE Kanona            42.38N 77.36W
05/13/2026  M0.25 Inch       Steuben            NY   Public

            Pea sized hail reported in the Kanona area
            of Steuben County NY.

&&