What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 13, 8:43 PM CST, 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
- Isolated showers/thunderstorms may pop up across the Panhandles later this afternoon/evening. -Hazards will be lightning and strong to severe wind gusts. Little to no rain amounts expected due to evaporation.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday. Severe wind gusts and lightning will be the main hazards.Again very little rain amounts expected with a continued dry surface layer.
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible each day through Monday.
Area forecast discussion, May 13, 8:43 PM CST, 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
943 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
- Isolated showers/thunderstorms may pop up across the Panhandles
later this afternoon/evening.
-Hazards will be lightning and strong to severe wind gusts. Little
to no rain amounts expected due to evaporation.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday.
Severe wind gusts and lightning will be the main hazards.Again
very little rain amounts expected with a continued dry surface
layer.
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
each day through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across
the eastern Texas Panhandle this evening. There are two clusters
of storms, one over Roberts county and the other over Gray/Donley
counties. These showers and storms have produced wind gusts
upwards of 40-55 mph this evening and that threat remains until
the activity dissipates or moves into western OK over the next few
hours. Based on current radar trends and hi-res models that are
initializing this activity better, have added in low chances for
showers and storms across the eastern TX Panhandle through
midnight. The rest of the forecast remains on track for tonight.
Muscha
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Visible satellite continues to depict a cumulus field across the
southwestern TX Panhandle with some attempts at virga showers
forming this evening. If anything is going to form, it is likely
going to be in the next hour or two before daytime heating is
gone. Any showers that push out outflow boundaries may also be a
spot for additional shower or storm development. The primary
hazard in addition to lightning will be damaging downburst wind
gusts. A small shower produced a 47 mph wind gust near Dimmitt
earlier so it will not take much of a storm core to potentially
produce a damaging wind gust. The forecast remains largely on
track for the next few hours.
Muscha
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Warm temperatures in the 90s are expected once again this
afternoon. Surface Tds remain low, especially in the west, with RH
values as low as 12 percent in the southwest TX Panhandle today,
only improving into the 20 to 25 percent range in the east to
northeast combined Panhandles. According to model analysis,
positive H7 theta-e advection will be taking place today.
Depending on if temperatures can reach the convective Ts, an
isolated storm cannot be ruled out later this afternoon into
evening. Very little to no upper level support is expected until
tomorrow. CAMs have the best place to see an isolated storm this
afternoon in the far northwest, possibly skimming by Cimarron
County going from NE NM into SE CO. The other area to watch this
afternoon is the south central to southeast TX Panhandle. As
mentioned the best upper level support comes in tomorrow as a
shortwave rippling through the H5 ridge. H7 theta-e advection may
be slightly better as well. Potentially firing off some scattered
storms. However, the surface is looking to remain dry with
inverted V forecast sounding suggesting large amounts of DCAPE
both today and tomorrow. With better lift tomorrow, chances of
seeing measurable rain overcoming that dry layer to produce some
isolated areas of at least a tenth of an inch of rain. Otherwise,
looking at scattered areas of a few hundredths due to the dry
nature.
With highs returning to the 90s tomorrow and RH values once again
dropping in the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions will be of concern. Winds will be slightly breezier
tomorrow leading the potential for maybe some Red Flag Warnings
across the combined Panhandles. The other concern will be dry
lightning from very inefficient thunderstorms potentially starting
fires as fuels remain susceptible under current drought
conditions. Isolated updrafts may start as early as 1 PM tomorrow,
however, looking more likely to be late afternoon into evening.
Especially when storms become more scattered across the area.
MUCAPE values both today and tomorrow, where CIN should not be an
issue, are progged to be in the 400-800 J/Kg range. Therefore,
hail up to one inch in diameter cannot be ruled out but is not
anticipated. However, DCAPE around the 1100-1500 J/Kg range will
drive the primary concerns of straight line winds up to 75 mph
being the main threat with any severe storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Continued dry and hot conditions are expected to persist through
the weekend. An approaching mid to upper level trough by Sunday
will bring in some stronger surface winds to the area. Because of
this Sunday afternoon is looking like a pretty much guaranteed
critical fire weather day. At least for the central to western
combined Panhandles. Thus far, a wind advisory does not look too
likely for Sunday but it may be close for parts of the combined
Panhandles. This could be a higher end critical day, at least from
what we have seen most recently due to the winds and continued dry
and hot conditions. After Sunday, models diverge quite a bit.
There are hints at a cold front sometime between Monday and
Tuesday. If the front does not show up until late Monday, the
combined Panhandles could see another high end critical fire
weather day Monday afternoon as well. This front may a potent one
in regards to strong northerly winds behind it. However, as far as
temperatures go, looking at afternoon highs going from the 90s one
day to 80s the next day. Again, just some question as to the
timing of this front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. There is still a
low chance for a thunderstorm to impact KAMA, so have kept the
PROB30 mention with this issuance for a few hours. Otherwise, the
wind will be out of the south to southeast during the night before
switching back out of the southwest after sunrise. Gusts during
the day could be upwards of 20-30 kts at the terminals.
Thunderstorms may form once again late in this 24 hour period, but
confidence in location is too low to mention.
Muscha
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions with MinRH values in
the 11 to 16 percent range with winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.
RFTIs are expected to be in the 1 to 2 range based on prevailing
hourly forecast. However, there may be periods where these
increase especially with the potential for thunderstorm winds
tomorrow afternoon. Not only will thunderstorms play a role in
erratic winds, they are expected to be mostly dry with fire starts
from lightning a potential.
Hot temperatures and low RHs will continue especially for western
portions of the combined Panhandles going into the weekend. At
least elevated conditions will exist with some potential for
critical through Saturday. Sunday has a much higher confidence for
widespread critical conditions as an upper level system
approaches and brings strong winds in the 25 to 35 mph range with
gusts up to 45 mph.
Critical fire weather conditions may exist on Monday as well
depending on the arrival of a cold front. Model guidance may bring
this cold front in as early as Monday afternoon or as late as
Monday night. Will be watching for a potential of strong winds
behind this front as well.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ003>005-
009-010-014-015-019-020.
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for OKZ001.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ002-003.
&&
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...05Hazardous weather outlook, May 13, 1:11 PM CST, 8 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-140715-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
211 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the western and
southern Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Storms may become
severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard
followed by a low potential for large hail.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday
across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Storms may be severe on
Thursday, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard
followed by large hail.
Thursday will see elevated to critical fire weather conditions
across the western Panhandles that can allow for easier wildfire
starts and rapid spread.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 13, 6:03 PM CST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
703 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ017-018-317-140030-
Palo Duro Canyon TX-Randall TX-Armstrong TX-
703 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND
NORTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...
At 703 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Palo Duro Canyon, or 14 miles east of Canyon, moving
east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lake Tanglewood, Washburn, and Palo Duro Canyon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3490 10171 3507 10179 3519 10156 3518 10150
3496 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 247DEG 12KT 3502 10166
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, May 13, 6:54 PM CST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
754 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ013-018-140130-
Carson TX-Armstrong TX-
754 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARSON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...
At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Claude, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Claude and Goodnight.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 98 and 109.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3516 10148 3529 10120 3505 10109 3497 10109
3497 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 250DEG 14KT 3509 10138
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, May 13, 7:27 PM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
827 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ013-014-018-019-140200-
Gray TX-Donley TX-Carson TX-Armstrong TX-
827 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG...
SOUTHEASTERN CARSON...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN DONLEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...
At 827 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Groom, or 13 miles east of Claude, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clarendon, Groom, Howardwick, Lake Mcclellan, Greenbelt Lake, and
Goodnight.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 104 and 129.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3499 10124 3525 10127 3541 10086 3486 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 261DEG 21KT 3512 10112
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, May 13, 7:57 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
857 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ014-015-019-020-140230-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Donley TX-Collingsworth TX-
857 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER...SOUTHERN
GRAY...NORTHWESTERN COLLINGSWORTH AND NORTHERN DONLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH 930 PM CDT...
At 857 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alanreed, or 20 miles north of Clarendon, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mclean, Howardwick, Lake Mcclellan, Alanreed, and Kellerville.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 119 and 152.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3503 10103 3530 10101 3545 10047 3505 10039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 254DEG 30KT 3521 10078
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, May 13, 8:01 PM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
901 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ004-008-009-140230-
Hutchinson TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-
901 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OCHILTREE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...
At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Skellytown, or 20 miles northeast of Borger, moving
east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Borger and Stinnett.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3569 10143 3587 10154 3614 10075 3571 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 254DEG 29KT 3582 10109
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, May 13, 8:34 PM CST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
934 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
TXZ004-005-009-010-140300-
Hemphill TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-Lipscomb TX-
934 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LIPSCOMB...
NORTHEASTERN ROBERTS...NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL AND SOUTHEASTERN
OCHILTREE COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...
At 934 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Miami, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Canadian.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3582 10090 3601 10093 3615 10049 3579 10034
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 249DEG 25KT 3594 10081
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HarrelNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1335744, 1335726, 1335728, 1335729, 1335731, 1335732, 1335734, 1335735, 1335737, 1335738, 1335739, 1335740.