Damaging Wind in New Mexico, May 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon, mainly in and around the higher terrain (20-30%,
  with 10-20% chances in the Permian Basin and in southeast New
  Mexico). A storm or two may produce gusty winds.

- Showers and storms become more numerous in coverage with the
  approach of an upper level system Monday night and Tuesday. A
  few storms may become severe with heavy rainfall and localized
  flash flooding also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Current water vapor imagery depicts a ridge moving across the
southwestern CONUS, with yesterday's shortwave departing to the
northeast. For today, the approaching ridge will help keep rain
chances lower overall than in previous days. That being said,
upsloping southeasterly winds at the surface coupled with subtle
disturbances rounding the ridge are allowing isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near the higher
terrain in our westernmost zones today. The best chances (20-30%)
will be in/around the Davis Mountains towards Brewster and Terrell
counties. Convective-Allowing Models also indicate additional
isolated activity may develop in the Permian Basin and in southeast
New Mexico thanks to disturbances aloft and remnant boundaries from
yesterday's convection (10-20% chances). Severe weather is not
anticipated, though a few storms may become strong, producing gusty
winds. Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while lows drop
down into the upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s tonight for most
locations.

The ridge moves across our area tonight into tomorrow. By Monday
night, another shortwave trough approaches the region while moisture
increases to the west. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances
(50-80%) once again increase across westernmost portions of the
area, slowly shifting eastward into Tuesday morning. We will be
keeping an eye out for locally heavy rainfall leading to instances
of flash flooding during this time. Monday's highs and lows end up
similar to today's. Shower and thunderstorm chances persist into the
beginning of the Long Term period, as does the potential for flash
flooding (and an increasing chance of strong to severe storms).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tuesday continues to look like an active weather day across
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. Upper-level difluence
will continue to spread over our region on Tuesday ahead of a trough
digging over the western CONUS. Synoptic scale lift along with
increasing deep-layer moisture (precipitable water values rising to
1-1.4 inches) over locations along and east of the mountains will
favor the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms (60-80% coverage) across our forecast area during the
day Tuesday. Short range model solution show a zone of moderate
instability with CAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 J/KG developing
across the Lower Trans Pecos into the Permian Basin Tuesday
afternoon with 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. Shear and instability
profiles will favor the potential of severe storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds over locations along and
east of the Pecos River, particularly from the Permian Basin into
the Lower Trans Pecos region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heavy
rainfall may lead to flash flooding over a few locations Tuesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday will trend below normal with highs in the
70s and 80s across all but the Big Bend on Tuesday given the
increased cloud cover and rain/storm chances. A good chance of
showers and storms will continue across the Permian Basin into
Tuesday night before most activity shifts to our east by early
Wednesday morning. Additional weak shortwave impulses in the flow
aloft will at least support a low chance of showers/storms over the
eastern Permian Basin into the day Wednesday. Ridging aloft will
meanwhile build over New Mexico into far west Texas during the day
Wednesday, with slightly warmer and drier conditions returning to
most of our forecast area by Wednesday afternoon.

Upper-level ridging will amplify over our forecast area Thursday and
Friday. High temperatures will trend warmer in the upper 80s to mid
90s underneath this feature late this week. Dry weather conditions
are currently anticipated on Thursday. Weak shortwave impulses
embedded within the ridge axis may translate over our area and bring
a low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms across areas
mainly east of the Pecos River Friday afternoon and evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft may develop by next weekend ahead of
another trough over the western CONUS. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms may develop across the region through the weekend.
Temperatures remain close to normal with highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s with morning lows mostly ranging from the upper 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the evening and overnight
hours, accompanied by breezy southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  90  65  81 /  10   0  20  70
Carlsbad                 64  94  60  80 /   0  10  70  60
Dryden                   67  92  69  88 /  20   0  10  60
Fort Stockton            64  91  64  84 /   0   0  60  70
Guadalupe Pass           63  84  58  75 /   0  30  70  50
Hobbs                    60  90  59  76 /  20   0  70  80
Marfa                    53  87  53  82 /   0  10  70  50
Midland Intl Airport     64  89  65  80 /  20   0  40  80
Odessa                   64  89  65  79 /  10   0  50  80
Wink                     65  92  63  80 /  10   0  70  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...95