Flash Flooding and Flooding in Ohio, May 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
654 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence when the greater potential for precipitation
will occur through the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) More showers as well as some thunderstorms will occur again today
with locally heavy rainfall possible.

2) Temperatures will warm above normal for much of the week. Greatest
potential for more showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Short wave will move from the Tennessee Valley into the upper Ohio
Valley today while a second impulse tracks from the mid Mississippi
Valley into the lower Great Lakes. These will both provide lift for
more showers and some thunderstorms today, particularly during the
usual diurnal peak.

Moderate southwesterly low level flow associated with the southern
wave will create a zone of moisture transport from eastern Kentucky
across the southeastern part of the forecast area into eastern Ohio.
Precipitable water will increase back to 1.7-1.8 inches in that axis
with the warm cloud depth not quite as deep as the previous few days.
This will create an environment favorable for locally heavy rainfall
south and east of I-71. HEFS, which did a rather good job
highlighting the axis of heavier rain in the I-75 corridor yesterday,
does not have anywhere near the concentrated axis of QPF for today.
REFS is a bit bolder, but did not verify as well yesterday. So, some
localized flooding issues cannot be ruled out, but the probability of
flash flooding seems low enough at this stage to preclude a new
watch. However, trends will continue to be monitored in case the
threat potential increases.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
00Z model suite has come into better agreement in handling an old
quasi-stationary front which will be located just south of the region
on Monday. This boundary may be close enough to result in some
diurnal convection for areas near and south of the Ohio River both
Monday and Tuesday. POPs look overdone, especially Tuesday, which is
probably due to the NBM lagging in picking up trends in guidance.

It appears that the front will nudge northward on Wednesday, so that
will be the day with the greatest potential for showers and
thunderstorms, especially south of I-70. The front will get pushed
back south by Thursday and end up even further south than the early
part of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.

Rising mid level heights and less cloud cover will allow daytime
temperatures to rise above normal, which is in the mid 70s. Lows
will continue to run slightly above normal as well. But as high
pressure moves south and heights fall as mid level troughing deepens
over the northeast late in the week, temperatures will cool to or
fall a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally MVFR ceilings across the area will continue through much of
the day, although there may be brief periods with a lower or higher
flight category. Showers will increase in coverage during the day
with some thunder possible with the better chance of the latter
occurring in the Columbus area. Showers will move out before 00Z with
ceilings improving or ending shortly thereafter. However, there may
be some fog and low cloud development late in the period, primarily
from KCMH/KLCK to KILN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible into
Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
121 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>062-070-071-077-251730-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-
121 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ097>100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-251730-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
121 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ094>096-OHZ063>065-072-078-251730-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Clermont-
121 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Kentucky, central
Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall. This could lead to rapid rises on creeks and streams
as well as some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.