Damaging Wind in New Mexico, June 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Hazardous heat continues across the westernmost portions of the
  region, with highs largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure
  to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade
  if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the
  Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain this
  afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and large hail will be the
  primary hazards with the strongest storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mid to upper ridging persists over the High Plains mid-week
suppressing more widespread precipitation chances, even while a
weak, quasi-stationary front over the southern TX Panhandle and lee
troughing from the SE NM plains into W TX provide additional near
surface lift for a chance of initiation of afternoon/evening storms.
Absence of widespread rain chances from large scale sinking motion
and proximity of ridging will allow 95F-100F highs, 100F-105F highs
in the low lands, and 105F-110F highs along the Pecos river into
Upper Trans Pecos to occur today. Heat indices remain above
hazardous heat criteria southwest of the Pecos River and west of the
Permian Basin and Terrell County, so a Heat Advisory remains in
effect for regions west of the central Permian Basin and Terrell
County and south of northern Lea County from this afternoon through
early evening. Make sure to practice proper heat safety precautions.

In addition to the heat, a risk of isolated strong storms is again
in the forecast, with southerly winds developing later in the day.
VIS/IR and WV imagery late this morning show weak west/northwest
steering flow on the eastern edge of the core of the ridge over the
northern MX plateau into Four Corners region. Skirting the edge of
the ridging, disturbances aloft will focus moisture and enhanced
northwest winds, as well as lift for ascent beneath. SPC has
outlooked the TX South Plains and east-central NM in a MRGL risk
today, with main threats being damaging winds and large hail.
However, while higher rain chances and greater storm coverage are
forecast north of the forecast area, 10%-15% 1 hr PoPs and 20%-30% 3
hr PoPs this afternoon/evening over the SE NM plains into Upper
Trans Pecos indicate potential for strong to severe storms to extend
down into these regions as well. Model forecast soundings with DCAPE
above 1000 J/kg and dew point depressions above 20F/low RH in the
lower troposphere are supportive of damaging winds and large hail
should storms develop. However, dry air potentially mixing out
through the depth of the very warm boundary layer and capping in
the low to mid-levels from dry air also mean there is still a
potential for little to no storms to develop anywhere across the
region. Rainfall totals therefore continue to be light (at most a
few tenths of an inch) and no major flooding is expected. Any
major storms are expected to subside with loss of daytime heating.
Lows tonight fall into the 70F-75F range, 65-70F range higher
elevations, and 75F-80F from the Presidio Valley into Big Bend as
these 15 to 25 mph and higher southerly winds in a LLJ to the east
of lee troughing limit overnight cooling.

Highs tomorrow are expected to be largely the same as today, so we
are considering another Heat Advisory from the afternoon through
evening tomorrow. Risk of strong storms however will not be as
high as today. Core ridging will give way to more uniformly weak
west/northwest flow aloft above south/southeast winds east of lee
troughing over SE NM Plains into Culberson County. Still,
continuing weak frictional convergence and focusing of moisture
near the quasi- stationary front and lee troughing will lead to
20%-30% PoPs during the afternoon/evening, so lightning and
damaging winds in stronger storms cannot be ruled out considering
DCAPE will remain above 1000 J/kg with steep lapse rates up to
freezing level. Outside of storms, a sharpening moisture gradient
west-east along lee troughing once again developing in the
afternoon will allow 15 to 25 mph and higher winds to the east of
lee troughing: continuing overnight within a LLJ. Lows Thursday
night will fall to similar levels as Wednesday night if not a few
degrees warmer with these southerly winds in the LLJ again
limiting overnight cooling. Heat safety precautions will need to
be taken each day continuing from the end of the week into this
weekend, before slightly cooler temperatures below the triple
digits return for most regions north of the Rio Grande by early
next week. More details on the progression of this weather pattern
can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

From Friday through through the weekend, the pattern does not change
significantly. Temperatures stay well above normal with much of the
area seeing highs between 100-105F. The higher elevations remain the
cool spots as highs sit just under 100F. Heat products of some kind
will likely be necessary for these days. Rain chances will hold on
mainly across the Davis Mountains and portions of Big Bend, but will
be isolated to scattered in nature. Some areas may see locally heavy
rain, but coverage will be quite low. By Monday, the upper level
ridge that will have kept the warmth overhead begins to weaken
slightly and an upper low churns across the Western US. Long range
guidance is suggesting that rain chances spread across the
western half of the CWA, but remain somewhat low (10-40%).
Temperatures from Monday onward move closer to normal with many
locations reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows stay
just above normal in the low to mid 70s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Current radar shows TS is moving east of CNM and is getting closer
to HOB. Have included a PROB30 at HOB for TS but this activity
will diminish as it goes east and it is uncertain whether it will
reach the terminal for not. If an amendment is needed it will
occur within the hour. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue with
modest southeast winds.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 102  75 104 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73 105  74 104 /  20   0  20  10
Dryden                   73 102  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72 104  74 104 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  97  72  95 /  20   0  20  10
Hobbs                    69 103  71 103 /  30  10  20  10
Marfa                    64  98  66  97 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     73 101  74 102 /  20   0  20   0
Odessa                   73 101  74 102 /  20   0  20  10
Wink                     73 106  75 105 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     Tornado          26 SW Bakersfield       30.60N 102.59W
06/22/2026                   Pecos              TX   Park/Forest Srvc

            Park employees travelling on I-10 initially
            reported a tornado south of the interstate
            and sent in a picture. Additional reports
            and pictures were received from county EMS
            and from a gas plant nearby. Emergency
            management reported that potential damage
            indicators were present, but nothing was
            damaged. Radar data indicates this was
            likely a brief, weak tornado as opposed to a
            landspout.

0706 PM     Hail             2 WNW Midland           32.01N 102.12W
06/22/2026  E0.88 Inch       Midland            TX   NWS Employee

            NWS Employee reported nickel-sized hail in
            Midland.

0706 PM     Hail             3 W Cotton Flat         31.95N 102.10W
06/22/2026  E1.00 Inch       Midland            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0714 PM     Hail             3 W Midland             31.98N 102.12W
06/22/2026  E0.75 Inch       Midland            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0715 PM     Hail             2 N Cotton Flat         31.96N 102.05W
06/22/2026  E0.75 Inch       Midland            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0716 PM     Hail             3 E Midland             32.02N 102.04W
06/22/2026  M1.50 Inch       Midland            TX   Public

            Multiple reports from the public and from
            the media of up to ping pong ball sized hail
            on the south side of Midland.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
349 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

NMZ027-028-242230-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
349 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 349 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Carlsbad Caverns National Park, or 19 miles
southwest of Carlsbad, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Whites City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 10466 3240 10443 3213 10429 3202 10453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 339DEG 14KT 3224 10450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

NMZ028-029-033-034-250100-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Northern Lea County NM-
Central Lea County NM-
601 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND CENTRAL
LEA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 600 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Maljamar, or 22 miles southwest of Lovington,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lovington, Tatum, McDonald, Humble City, Maljamar, Lea County Zip
Franklin Memorial Airport, Loco Hills, Gladiola, and Tatum Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 10306 3303 10306 3244 10344 3276 10404
      3297 10389 3297 10376 3314 10377 3338 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 216DEG 21KT 3277 10367

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13