Strong westerly winds (the product of lee troughing) yielded a very brief period of high winds at Carlsbad Caverns.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Strong westerly winds (the product of lee troughing) yielded a very brief period of high winds at Carlsbad Caverns.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 17, 8:43 PM MST, 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1043 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
- The hottest temperatures of the season so far are likely today
and Thursday with many locations reaching 100-110F.
- A front brings low rain chances to portions of the area Thursday
(10-30%). Additional scattered rain chances return Friday and
Saturday with the highest chances south of I-10.
- Temperatures largely remain above normal through the extended forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Hot temperatures dominate the Short Term Period. Winds have taken on
a more downsloping westerly component today. This, combined with
ridging aloft, allows temperatures to shoot above the century mark
across most of the area (with the exception of the mountains, which
top out between 95 and 100 degrees). The Heat Advisory remains in
effect for the whole area through this evening. Lows tonight only
dip down into the mid-to-upper 70s (nearing 80 degrees in some
spots). The heat persists Thursday as well. The main difference is
tomorrow a surface low sets up over the Permian Basin. This helps
bring a front southward across the area. While it does look like
this will help at least keep southeast New Mexico, Culberson County,
and the far northwestern Permian Basin relatively cooler, another
Heat Advisory has been issued for most other locations, where highs
will generally look similar to today's before the front can make it
through. Because temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 110
degrees in the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos, an
Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for these locations tomorrow.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in
and around the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon. Additional
convection is also expected to develop along the front as it moves
into southern portions of the Permian Basin and towards the Trans-
Pecos later tomorrow evening. A couple of storms may manage to
become strong to severe, posing mainly a strong/damaging wind
threat (given the "inverted V" soundings depicted by forecast
soundings). Behind the front, Thursday night's lows fall back down
into the mid-to-upper 60s and low 70s.
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
An upper-level disturbance, coupled with the presence of the
decaying front, allows rain chances to stick around Friday. The best
chances (40-60%) will generally be in/around the higher terrain,
with lower chances (10-40%) elsewhere. Highs top out in the low-to-
mid 90s. Temperatures start to warm again over the weekend as
ridging starts to strengthen, with highs on Sunday once again
nearing the century mark for large portions of the area. Rain
chances (generally between 10-20%) become confined mainly to the
higher terrain this weekend thanks to moist upslope flow.
Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s and approaching 100 degrees
stick around through the remainder of the extended forecast as
ridging continues to strengthen west of our area. Some long-range
guidance does attempt to bring shower and thunderstorm chances back
to the northern Permian Basin thanks to a boundary Monday night into
Tuesday morning. However, confidence remains low at this time, and
as a result PoPs are generally between 10-30% (closer to 40% in our
northeasternmost counties).
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. The big question this
forecast is if and to what extent a cold front makes it into the
area over the next 24 hours. Considering the timing....~ 18Z or
so, according to the NAM, the front may diurnally hang up
somewhere between KLBB and KMAF, as June cold fronts arriving
midday are wont to do. W/this in mind, any attempts at timing the
front would be futile. Instead, expect winds to veer to north over
the next 24 hours, and become gusty by late morning Thursday.
Convective temps are much too high for a cu field.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 79 108 73 93 / 0 0 20 30
Carlsbad 79 103 71 97 / 0 0 20 20
Dryden 76 110 76 98 / 0 10 20 40
Fort Stockton 79 105 73 96 / 0 10 20 40
Guadalupe Pass 73 94 69 89 / 0 10 10 20
Hobbs 75 101 66 93 / 0 0 30 20
Marfa 67 96 63 91 / 0 20 20 50
Midland Intl Airport 79 107 72 94 / 0 0 10 20
Odessa 79 106 72 94 / 0 0 20 20
Wink 80 106 72 97 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for Andrews-Borden-
Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Loving-
Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Reagan-
Terrell.
NM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station 164 Carlsbad Caverns NP measured a couple of 58 mph wind gusts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1339847.