New Mexico, 2026

Drought in New Mexico, February 1 to 17, 2026

February 1 to 17, 2026 · NWS EPZ · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Late January rain helped improve the drought conditions, especially along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. By February 17th, all of Otero and Dona Ana counties had improved to Moderate(D1) drought conditions or better.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.

Late January rain helped improve the drought conditions, especially along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. By February 17th, all of Otero and Dona Ana counties had improved to Moderate(D1) drought conditions or better.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:25 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 927 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026
  • Temperatures warming above normal Sunday and Monday.
  • A weak backdoor cold front will bring breezy east winds and slightly cooler air midweek.
  • No rain or high-impact wind in sight.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:25 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
925 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

 - Temperatures warming above normal Sunday and Monday.

 - A weak backdoor cold front will bring breezy east winds and
   slightly cooler air midweek.

 - No rain or high-impact wind in sight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 927 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

We will remain in a benign weather pattern through the forecast
period thanks to a ridge west - trough east pattern over the
CONUS. The UL ridge will slowly drift east through Tuesday, which
will warm highs above normal with Monday being the warmest day. On
Tuesday, a s/w trough will move through the Plains, bringing a
cooler air mass with it. This air mass is set to arrive Tuesday
night / Wednesday morning. Winds will be breezy along west-facing
slopes with the passage of the front, and highs will drop around 5
or so degrees. This s/w trough passage will also cause the ridge
to retreat back west.

Mid-week onward a rex block will form over the Pacific with some
eastward migration of the high. Temperatures will warm back up
into next weekend. Both the GFS and Euro show the low within the
rex block lifting northeast, but with little consequence to the
area. Neither model shows much in the way of QPF, so it would just
bring an increase in clouds. The GFS lifts it through on Friday
and the Euro on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light
and variable throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Still looking at minimal fire weather concerns through the
period. High temperatures will warm to about to about 5-10
degrees above normal by Monday. A weak disturbance over Colorado
will be enough to produce some westerly wind gusts around 20 to 25
mph Monday afternoon, but Min RH values will range from around 20
to 30 percent, even higher over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

This bit of wind and deeper mixing will boost vent rates
significantly across the region Monday, with "Good" or better
conditions over most of the higher terrain. Poor conditions will
hold on in the Tularosa Basin. Higher elevation sites will hold
onto "Fair" conditions Tuesday, but they will worsen elsewhere,
with some improvement Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  35  65  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            31  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               31  61  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               29  61  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               26  45  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    34  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              33  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   31  64  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                31  63  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       38  63  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                26  59  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             33  67  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               35  58  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   33  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             32  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            28  63  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  65  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 34  64  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                30  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  28  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                26  56  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 28  52  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  26  57  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                34  62  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                28  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             29  61  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   30  61  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    29  68  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               31  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  34  60  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   30  64  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  29  62  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           31  63  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               36  60  42  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...34-Brown

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Northern Dona Ana County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
Northern Dona Ana County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.353, -106.833 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The entire zone started out the month in Severe(D2) drought, but on February 17th, the northern areas were in Moderate(D1) drought and the south in Abnormally Dry(D0) drought.

Drought, Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.353, -106.833 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe(D2) drought covered the entire zone to start the month, but by February 17th, the entire zone was in Abnormally Dry(D0) drought. The Cooperative Observer at New Mexico State University reported 0.04 inches of precipitation which was 0.32 inches below normal.

Drought, Otero Mesa

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
Otero Mesa forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

February started out with Severe(D2) drought across the zone except the far south where Moderate(D1) drought existed. By February 17th, the southeast was in Moderate(D1) drought with Abnormally Dry(D0) drought elsewhere.

Drought, West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.699, -106.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone started February with Severe(D2) drought over the west and Moderate(D1) drought over the east. By February 17th, the west was in Moderate(D1) drought with Abnormally Dry(D0) conditions east. The White Sands National Park Cooperative Observer reported just a trace of precipitation which was 0.38 inches below normal.

Drought, East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone started February with Severe(D2) drought over the west and Moderate(D1) drought over the east. By February 17th, the west was in Moderate(D1) drought with Abnormally Dry(D0) conditions east.

Drought, Southeast Tularosa Basin

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
Southeast Tularosa Basin forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone started February with Severe(D2) drought over the west and Moderate(D1) drought over the east. By February 17th, the north was in Moderate(D1) drought with Abnormally Dry(D0) conditions south.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1310131, 1310133, 1310134, 1310135, 1310136, 1310137.