Wildfire in New Mexico, April 28 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- A high risk of rapid fire spread due to dry and gusty conditions
  will continue through sunset today for most areas east of the
  central mountain chain.

- Widespread rain arrives late Thursday through early Saturday
  with several inches of high mountain snow accumulating in
  northern New Mexico. Winter travel conditions are likely in the
  northern mountains, especially Thursday night and Friday.

- Gusty east crosswinds will develop below canyons opening into
  the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday night and
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

It's another mild to warm, breezy to gusty, and very dry day across
the Land of Enchantment today. Winds are strongest across the
northeast highlands and east central NM due to another surface lee
trough along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Wind
gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been observed so far today across these
zones. These winds combined with relative humidity values in the
single digits will result in a higher risk for rapid fire spread
across these zones. A backdoor front moved through the northeast
plains this morning briefly increasing surface moisture across this
part of the state. The front has mixed northeast out of the state
thanks to the aforementioned surface lee trough, but southwest winds
in this zone will be lighter compared to areas south and west, so
decided to cancel the Red Flag Warning for just the Northeast Plains
zone.

West winds will taper off around sunset with increasing upper level
and mid level clouds heading into Wednesday morning ahead of a
disturbance over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the backdoor front that
impacted northeast NM this morning will push south and west once
again, this time through all of eastern NM and through the gaps of
the central mountain chain around daybreak Wednesday. A few low
clouds cannot be ruled out across the east slopes of the central
mountain chain around daybreak Wednesday. Eastern Santa Fe and ABQ
near canyon openings will see a light to at most breezy southeast to
east wind mid to late Wednesday morning before westerly flow mixes
down come midday and pushes the backdoor front east into Texas.
Breezy west winds across western and central NM amd breezy south
winds across the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be
similar to today across western and central NM, but around 5 to 10
degrees cooler across the eastern plains due to the backdoor front.
Mid to high level clouds will favor central and southern areas due
to a tap of subtropical moisture ahead of an upper low southwest of
southern CA. Some isolated showers and storms across far northeast
NM near a disturbance moving across Colorado. These high to mid
level clouds spread north Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
some low clouds across far northeast NM as the backdoor front pushes
back west and south through northeast and east central NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A transition to a cooler and wetter pattern for the area begins
Thursday as the upper low southwest of southern CA opens up and
moves northeast over northern Baja CA and Sonora Mexico. Showers
with some embedded storms will favor the east slopes of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains due to upslope easterly flow behind the backdoor
front. Heading into Thursday evening, showers and embedded storms
will develop across southwest NM moving and expanding northeast
across central and eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning as
the upper low/trough moves across the U.S./Mexico. The backdoor
front along the east slopes of the central mountain chain will push
through the gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday evening
resulting in a very gusty east canyon wind across the eastern ABQ
Metro. Guidance from the NAM shows potential for wind gusts of up to
45 mph during this time. This southern disturbance will combine with
a northern disturbance across the Great Basin and central Rockies
Friday morning helping to precipitation going across central and
eastern NM.

Friday will be a chilly and dreary day across central and eastern NM
with rain and embedded thunderstorms. A low looks to try to close
off over southern UT and northern AZ Friday afternoon on the
backside of the large scale disturbance over the Four Corners area.
This low combined with better daytime heating across western NM will
result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across this
part of the state. Shower and storm activity slowly tapers off
Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper level trough exits
east and upper level ridging over the Pacific NW slowly expands
south. Will likely have some patchy areas of fog across central and
eastern NM Saturday morning due to low dewpoint depressions combined
with saturated grounds. Overall QPF amounts Thursday through
Saturday morning will be around 0.1 to 0.25 inches along and west of
the Continental Divide, 0.5 inch to an inch across the RGV, and 1 to
2 inches along and east of the central mountain chain. Snow will be
favored across the northern mountains above 8500 feet with snowfall
amounts of 2 to 6 inches across the peaks of the Tusas and Jemez
Mountains and 6 to 15 inches across the peaks of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains.

Milder with lingering scattered showers and storms across the
central mountains and nearby lower elevations Saturday due to
higher surface moisture remaining trapped under the upper level
ridge. Warmer with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
across the northern mountains and nearby highlands Sunday and
Monday as the low levels gradually dry out underneath the upper
level ridge. Unsettled weather looks to return to most of the
forecast area as early as next Tuesday as a broad upper low inches
east towards the Four Corners area. However, forecast confidence
in the exact upper level pattern during this time is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Breezy to gusty west winds across most areas this afternoon with
the strongest winds across the central mountain chain and east
central NM with peak gusts around 25 to 35 kts. Increasing high
and mid level clouds move in later today and overnight. A backdoor
front pushes through eastern NM overnight into Wednesday morning
with some low clouds developing along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo and Sandia and Manzano Mountains mid Wednesday
morning. The backdoor front will squeak through the gaps of the
central mountain chain resulting in a light to breezy east
(southeast) canyon wind at KABQ (KSAF).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue through the evening today
across the northeast highlands and east-central New Mexico. Elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast tomorrow,
mainly for western New Mexico and central NM. Widespread rain and
mountain snow arrives late Thursday into Friday, with good chances
of rain amounts over one inch in eastern NM and snowfall over six
inches in the northern mountains. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue Saturday becoming more isolated to the
northern high terrain Sunday and Monday as high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  71  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  30  67  29  62 /   0   0   0  30
Cuba............................  35  69  37  62 /   0   0   0  30
Gallup..........................  29  70  34  65 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  33  68  38  62 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  31  73  35  66 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  36  71  40  65 /   0   0   5  30
Magdalena.......................  45  75  48  66 /   0   0  10  30
Datil...........................  38  71  42  63 /   0   0  10  30
Reserve.........................  35  74  38  67 /   0   0   5  30
Glenwood........................  39  75  43  70 /   0   0  10  40
Chama...........................  30  61  30  56 /   0   0   0  40
Los Alamos......................  44  71  45  61 /   0   0   5  40
Pecos...........................  34  67  39  58 /   0   5  10  60
Cerro/Questa....................  37  65  37  56 /   0  10  20  70
Red River.......................  31  54  31  46 /   0  20  30  80
Angel Fire......................  24  62  25  50 /   0  20  20  80
Taos............................  32  69  33  60 /   0   5  10  50
Mora............................  31  66  35  53 /   0  10  10  80
Espanola........................  40  75  42  66 /   0   0   5  40
Santa Fe........................  41  69  45  61 /   0   0   5  50
Santa Fe Airport................  38  73  43  65 /   0   0   5  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  48  76  52  69 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  77  49  70 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  80  47  73 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  78  50  71 /   0   0   0  30
Belen...........................  41  82  46  73 /   0   0   5  30
Bernalillo......................  43  79  49  71 /   0   0   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  40  81  45  73 /   0   0   5  30
Corrales........................  43  78  49  71 /   0   0   0  30
Los Lunas.......................  40  81  47  73 /   0   0   5  30
Placitas........................  45  76  50  68 /   0   0   5  30
Rio Rancho......................  45  77  50  70 /   0   0   0  30
Socorro.........................  48  83  52  73 /   0   0  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  71  45  64 /   0   0   5  40
Tijeras.........................  42  72  46  66 /   0   0   5  40
Edgewood........................  38  72  41  64 /   0   0   5  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  30  73  36  65 /   0   0   5  40
Clines Corners..................  36  69  40  57 /   0   0   5  50
Mountainair.....................  40  73  44  65 /   0   0  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  41  73  45  65 /   0   0  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  50  74  52  67 /   0   0  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  49  68  49  60 /   0   0  10  40
Capulin.........................  30  60  34  46 /   5  30  40  70
Raton...........................  32  65  36  52 /   0  30  40  70
Springer........................  34  70  39  54 /   0  20  20  70
Las Vegas.......................  32  67  38  54 /   0   5  10  60
Clayton.........................  36  66  40  52 /   0  20  30  60
Roy.............................  36  66  40  51 /   0  20  20  60
Conchas.........................  42  75  46  58 /   0   5  10  50
Santa Rosa......................  41  73  45  59 /   0   0   5  50
Tucumcari.......................  44  76  46  60 /   0   0  10  40
Clovis..........................  45  75  47  62 /   0   0  10  40
Portales........................  46  76  48  63 /   0   0  10  40
Fort Sumner.....................  45  76  48  64 /   0   0   5  40
Roswell.........................  53  82  55  70 /   0   0  10  40
Picacho.........................  51  78  51  67 /   0   0  10  40
Elk.............................  48  78  49  66 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ123-125-126.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71