What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 2:59 AM CST, 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1015 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
- Low chance for severe thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday morning, especially in NW Alabama. Further east, this threat will linger until just before daybreak on Tuesday.
- Low chance of severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.
- Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast through Wednesday. Another solid half of an inch to an inch is forecast Thursday through Friday.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 28, 2:59 AM CST, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
359 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...New NEAR TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1015 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
- Low chance for severe thunderstorms tonight into early Tuesday
morning, especially in NW Alabama. Further east, this threat
will linger until just before daybreak on Tuesday.
- Low chance of severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night.
- Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast through
Wednesday. Another solid half of an inch to an inch is forecast
Thursday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Several weakening bow echoes have tracked across the TN Valley
overnight, bringing some much needed rainfall to the region. While
occasional gusty winds have occurred, no severe weather has yet
been observed as of 330 AM. A persistent cap from the evening
coupled with weaker synoptic scale lift has limited the ceiling
for severe potential. Current estimates of ongoing storms has them
tracking south of our area around 7 AM, so long as they do not
slow down.
Behind these storms, attention turns to approaching broad synoptic
lift from an approaching shortwave trough aloft that will take on
a negative tilt. Surface low pressure will track from the Southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow evening. A tightening
low level pressure gradient ahead of this will induce a low level
jet that will stream additional moisture and warm air northward.
The big question is how will this interact with the storms that
are expected to track and potentially stall south of our area?
Predicting the future is hard. For now, it looks as though the
most likely scenario is that a lingering outflow from ongoing
storms is draped around I-20 to I-22 corridor in central AL will
start to lift northward tomorrow afternoon through northwest
Alabama. This will allow for more destabilization over that area.
Unlikely scenario #1 is that the outflow becomes reinforced with
additional showers during the day and struggles to lift this far
north, therefore precluding us from any severe weather. Unlikely
scenario #2 is that the retreating cool air/advancing warm and
moist air is so strong that our entire area destabilizes and we
have a widespread severe risk. For now, will opt for the most
likely area being west of I-65. Convection approaches the area
tomorrow evening and overnight, and more details are included
below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
The main focus during the short term period will be another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening into early
Wednesday morning as a mid/upper lvl shortwave moves eastward
above a warm and unstable airmass across much of the ArkLaMiss
into TN Valley region. Southerly flow through the day will allow
temps to warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s while maintaining rich
low-level moisture, resulting in moderate to strong instability by
late afternoon and evening. While overnight convection should
limit activity through the morning and early afternoon hours
across the TN Valley, large scale ascent should result in an
uptick in discrete storms/clusters east of a dryline feature
across portions of the southeastern Great Plains tomorrow
afternoon before tracking into the Deep South tomorrow evening.
There remains some uncertainty regarding convective evolution,
particularly as the progression and eventual impacts of tonight's
storms may influence mesoscale boundaries, instability recovery,
and storm mode as we head through Tuesday. Remnant outflow
boundaries and any lingering convection could alter where the
greatest severe threat ultimately develops and may result in
adjustments to timing and the placement of the highest severe
threat in later forecasts.
Forecast guidance continues to suggest an environment supportive
of organized severe storms, with sufficient deep-layer shear to
support both supercells and eventual upscale growth into clusters
or a line/MCS of storms overnight. Discrete storms that can
develop ahead of the main MCS would pose the greatest threat for
all severe hazards with a conditional risk for a few stronger
tornadoes if sustained supercells can be realized. If the current
model trends hold, the primary hazard may shift toward damaging
straight-line winds with the overnight MCS, though embedded
circulations may form within any bowing segments along the line.
Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will also accompany
stronger storms.
The severe threat is expected to gradually diminish from west to
east during the early morning hours Wednesday as storms encounter
weaker instability. Residents should continue to monitor later
forecasts and ensure they have multiple reliable ways to receive
warnings, especially with storms expected during the overnight
period. A cold front is progged to move through the area Wednesday
afternoon, and cooler temps with low chances for rain will linger
through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Models are in agreement that an upper level trough will likely shift
southeastward into the area this weekend, placing the TN Valley in a
favorable location for additional chances for rainfall. At this
point, ensembles depict a fairly stable environment with plenty of
CIN and weak lapse rates. Therefore, confidence in any stronger
storms remains extremely low for now. PWATs are forecast to be around
1" Friday night into Saturday morning, which is on par with
climatological normals for this time of year. However, with the
antecedent rainfall this week, we will have to monitor for rises on
rivers, creeks, and streams as well as ponding of water in areas of
poor drainage. Conditions should begin to dry out Saturday afternoon
with upper level ridging and sfc high pressure filtering in from the
west. We should remain dry through early next week with highs in the
60s-70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
VFR conditions will persist through the early overnight hours
before a line of storms moves into the area later this morning.
Gusty winds and hail will be the primary concerns with this first
line of storms where reductions to IFR or LIFR conditions will be
likely within heavier convective storms. Will likely see a break
in thunderstorm activity during the late morning to early
afternoon hours before additional rounds of storms move into the
area later in the afternoon through the early overnight hours.
Adjustments to the TAFs will likely be made, especially during the
morning to early afternoon hours as the convective environment
evolves.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 28, 1:06 AM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
206 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
ALZ009-010-280745-
DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
206 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN
DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...
At 206 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollywood, or 10 miles north of Scottsboro, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Bridgeport, Henagar, Stevenson, Hollywood, Ider, Pisgah,
Hytop, Martintown, and Fackler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3461 8610 3491 8608 3497 8560 3466 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 266DEG 39KT 3480 8598
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GHSpecial weather statement, Apr 28, 1:33 AM CST, 2 hours 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
TNZ076-096-097-280815-
Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
233 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MOORE...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CDT...
At 233 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Petersburg, or 9 miles southwest of Shelbyville, moving east at 45
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Lynchburg, Decherd, Estill Springs, Petersburg, Tims Ford
Lake, Chestnut Ridge, Woods Reservoir, Arnold AFB, and Belleville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8625 3539 8628 3538 8625 3537 8627
3534 8624 3533 8620 3536 8616 3534 8603
3531 8599 3518 8604 3527 8672 3531 8668
3533 8660 3537 8659 3536 8649 3533 8646
3532 8642 3535 8641 3536 8633 3541 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 273DEG 39KT 3541 8659
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GHSpecial weather statement, Apr 28, 3:32 AM CST, 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
432 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
ALZ006-009-010-TNZ097-281015-
Madison AL-DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-Franklin TN-
432 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
CENTRAL DEKALB AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM
CDT...
At 432 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Sewanee to 6 miles southeast
of Moores Mill. Movement was east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Scottsboro, Rainsville, Bridgeport, Moores Mill, Henagar,
Stevenson, Sylvania, Fyffe, and Hollywood.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3445 8591 3456 8615 3460 8616 3460 8623
3477 8659 3520 8587 3499 8586 3498 8561
3468 8555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 290DEG 51KT 3512 8589 3479 8643
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GH