A dryline set up over central portions of the Permian Basin, extending southward towards the Big Bend. A nearby shortwave encouraged thunderstorm development east of this dryline.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A dryline set up over central portions of the Permian Basin, extending southward towards the Big Bend. A nearby shortwave encouraged thunderstorm development east of this dryline. A couple of thunderstorms produced severe winds in the Permian Basin. Meanwhile, strong winds aloft coupled with the passage of a Pacific front allowed for high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains and in far northern portions of Lea County in SE New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 1, 11:25 AM MST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
- Strong southwest winds over the Guadalupes, Upper Trans Pecos,
and SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin will lead to
critical to near critical fire weather conditions and patchy
blowing dust reducing visibilities for these regions.
- A low to medium (25% to 35%) chance of isolated to scattered strong
to severe storms with main threats being large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rain developing this evening over the
eastern Permian Basin.
- Another 25% to 35% chance of isolated to scattered
showers/storms, some strong to severe on Friday for the northern
and eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Main threats will
again be large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Strong winds west of a dryline this afternoon and showers/storms,
some strong to severe, this afternoon/evening, are forecast
today. Scattered to broken cloud cover drifting west to
east will give way to showers by late afternoon leeward of the
western higher terrain and the Lower Trans Pecos. 1 hr PoPs
increase from 15% in the afternoon into the 30% to 45% range by
evening over the northeast Permian Basin into southeast Permian
Basin, eastern Stockton Plateau, and northern Terrell County. This
is when isolated to scattered storms, some strong, are expected
to develop. Main threats in strongest storms will be large hail
and damaging winds given low RH <50% at the surface. Where
heaviest and most persistent storms occur, regions impacted could
see 0.50" to 0.75" of rainfall - with up to 1.00" or more
indicated for some locations in the southeast Permian Basin, where
6 hour PoPs increase into the 60% to 80% range. West of a dryline
situated from the central Permian Basin into Upper Trans Pecos
and down into the Big Bend, west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up
to 60 mph - sustained higher speeds and gusts for higher terrain -
are forecast this afternoon into midnight tonight. These
downsloping winds will generate patchy blowing dust reducing
visibilities, and keep temperatures late spring-like in the mid
80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher elevations. Cooler and
drier air moves in tonight behind the upper air disturbance
aiding today's strong winds and shower/storm chances. This allows
lows to fall into the 50s and 60s F, 40s F higher elevations and
northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin. Tomorrow,
drier weather persists as the dryline surges east of the central
Permian Basin and Big Bend in the afternoon. West winds shift back
to southwest and gust up to 35 mph west of the dryline. Cooler
air behind today's disturbance keeps highs tomorrow a few degrees
cooler than today, lower to mid 80s F, 70s F higher elevations.
Winds back to southerly tomorrow evening ahead of the next mid to
upper disturbance as the dryline retrogrades into far western
portions of the area, and more humid air/increased boundary layer
moisture advances west. The increased moisture will limit
overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 50s and 60s F apart from
40s F southwest foothills of Marfa Plateau and northern Lea
County.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Another chance of strong to severe storms for the northern and
eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County is forecast Friday,
while strong westerly winds shifting to northeasterly and
remaining strong through Saturday maintain fire weather conditions
- before cooler temperatures and lighter winds lead to calmer
conditions to end the weekend and begin next week. Temperatures
rise back into the mid 80s to 90s F, 70s to lower 80s F higher
elevations Friday. Southerly winds veer back to southwesterly and
then increase in association with the approaching disturbance.
Lift and moisture accompanying the disturbance will again aid
shower/storm formation east of the dryline, which will set up from
the Presidio Valley into Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian
Basin. A 25% to 30% 1 hr probability of showers is apparent in NBM
guidance over the eastern Permian Basin by early afternoon,
before increased lift accompanying a strong cold front developing
in from the northwest increases development of isolated to
scattered storms over the northern and eastern Permian Basin into
Terrell County by late afternoon/evening, continuing into the
overnight. Main threats with stronger storms are again expected to
be large hail and damaging winds. Regions impacted by heavier or
more persistent storms may again see locally heavy rain up to at
least 0.25" to 0.50". Cooler weather moves in Friday night through
the weekend, with highs in the 60s and 70s F and lows in the 30s
and 40s F for most of the area. However, gusty winds and a 25% to
40% chance of showers/storms lingers southwest of the Pecos River
Saturday behind the cold front. Highest 6 hr PoPs 45% to 60% for
the Presidio Valley into Big Bend expected Sunday morning through
Sunday night, with persistent clouds and rain chances lingering
even after northeast winds decrease Sunday. Weak ridging aloft
early next week will lead to a gradual warming trend and drier
weather once more, but high and low temperatures stay seasonable
for early April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Southwest winds have begun to increase across area terminals and we
will see this trend continue through mid-late afternoon. Highest
gusts will peak around 40kt at CNM and HOB, with lower gusts around
25kt at other terminals. This could lead to areas of low vis due to
blowing dust but will hold off on adding into the TAF for now.
Expect winds to diminish to 10kt or less by 03-06Z. Some light
activity has developed over/near SE NM sites but don't think any
precip is making it to the ground. Later this afternoon or early
evening, thunderstorms could develop across West Texas, potentially
affecting MAF and FST. Will continue to monitor radar trends and
amend TAFs to add mention of TS if needed.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this afternoon through
this evening. ERCs remain above the 75th percentile for much of
the area, especially west of the Pecos River and Southeast New
Mexico. Despite min RHs in the 15 to 20% range, southwest winds
between 30 to 40 mph, dry fuels, and high temperatures at least 10
to 20 degrees warmer than average yield near critical to critical
fire weather conditions today. 20-ft winds decrease Thursday but
remain at or above 20 miles per hour for the Guadalupes into
Southeast New Mexico, while min RHs less than critical 15% return.
Therefore, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
again expected for Southeast New Mexico and western higher terrain
of West Texas into the northwest Permian Basin on Thursday.
Strong 20-ft winds 20 miles per hour or more west of a dryline
Friday and behind a cold front Saturday maintain elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions over the western higher terrain
and surrounding foothills. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures
Sunday into early next week are then expected to decrease fire
risk.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 56 87 61 87 / 40 0 0 40
Carlsbad 53 86 54 88 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden 62 88 64 87 / 50 0 0 40
Fort Stockton 59 88 61 88 / 30 0 0 30
Guadalupe Pass 52 75 55 78 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 49 84 52 87 / 20 0 0 10
Marfa 47 80 46 83 / 10 0 0 10
Midland Intl Airport 57 86 62 87 / 30 0 0 30
Odessa 57 85 62 87 / 30 0 0 30
Wink 54 87 57 89 / 20 0 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Warning until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Loving-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...27The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The West Texas Mesonet station at 2 SW Tatum measured a brief period of high winds, including gusts up to 63 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1320069.