Drought in New Hampshire, May 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
752 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have trended for increased chances of rain Sunday, mainly for
the coast and portions of the interior.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected for Friday
and Saturday with intermittent chances for showers.

2. Seasonable temperatures warm late this weekend into early
next week. Rain chances remain concentrated on Sunday and
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Dreary conditions continue the rest of today with a cold front
lurking just to our west. Ahead of this front, the HRRR is pretty
consistent in showing the current batch of rain continuing to
advance to the northeast, generally expected to move out of the
area by sunset. There may then be period of drizzle, but
overnight looks mostly dry with just a few showers possible.
Between now and 00Z/8PM this evening, this activity may result
in additional rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" across western
ME with the higher amounts toward the Kennebec Valley and
Midcoast. Outside of precipitation, patchy fog is possible, but
chances of this should come to an end as the boundary level
becomes a bit drier and better mixed later this evening and
tonight behind the front. Not sure how mixed we'll end up being,
but W-NW winds may get a bit breezy with gusts to around
20-25mph, per RAP and HRRR forecast soundings.

Drier conditions are expected Friday, but a slow-moving 500mb low
will still reside north of the Great Lakes and will continue to send
waves of energy and broad lift through the area. While the
atmosphere is only marginally conducive for a few showers in the
afternoon, but there should still be enough moisture and MUCAPE
for a diurnal cu field. Highs will be mostly in the upper 50s
to lower 60s, which is near to slightly below normal. Northwest
winds could be breezy at times with gusts of 20-25 mph, possibly
up to 30 mph in the morning. This should be enough to hold off
or to delay the seabreeze to bring these warm temperatures to
the coast.

Today's 12Z HRRR and 3km NAM are showing an area of showers
approaching from the west around sunset and then gradually moving
into NH and western ME later in the evening overnight. The latest
NBM is starting to latch onto this, and the 20-30% will do for now,
but these might have be nudged upward if the trends in the CAMs
hold. Currently lows are forecast to be in the 30s, which may result
in patchy frost, but more clouds with the showers holding together
would keep temperatures a little warmer.

The same upper low will not have moved much from Friday into
Saturday, but as waves aloft pass by, shower development looks more
favorable as overall moisture and instability looks higher than that
of Friday. This should also result in more clouds and hold temps a
couple of degrees cooler than Friday. The gradient will also be
weaker to allow the seabreeze at the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will be exiting the Carolina coast Saturday night,
moving north-northeast offshore. While the current track keeps
the center of the low well to the east, its moisture field
broadens and will come in proximity to the coast and coastal
waters. NBM trend has been to bring measurable precip into the
coast and interior Sunday. For lows that are more compact and
travel a bit further off the coast, dry air typically funnels in
on the western periphery due to NW continental air mass,
creating a sharp edge to precipitation. This is still a
possibility, but guidance moisture profiles are humid. This
encourages leaving showers in the forecast at this time. Did
narrow the spread of measurable precip to the coast and portions
of the interior.

As a result, Sunday will feature mainly overcast skies with
increasing north to northwest winds through the afternoon. High
temperatures may be the coolest for the following few days, as
highs climb into the mid 50s before pushing into the 60s and
even lower 70s early next week.

The second chance for widespread rain comes midweek as low
pressure occludes south of Hudson Bay. As the main low lags,
cut off from an intensifying lower jet from Texas to the
Northeast, triple point low pressure may develop in vicinity of
the St Lawrence River and continue NE. This could introduce a
brief warm sector to northern New England, but more importantly
it signals moisture transport could become more parallel to
frontal forcing along the approaching cold front. The slowing
front then becomes a focal point for this water vapor transport
to fall out as precipitation. Timing and location of of the
front varies widely at this time, but would look towards the
middle to second half of the week for impacts on the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through Friday...IFR and lower conditions continue to slowly
improve to MVFR across the area. In general I opted for a blend
of guidance to balance the faster clearing of the HRRR and the
slower clearing of the statistical models. The overall theme
will be improvement though, with VFR conditions returning to
terminals by morning. I cannot rule out a stray shower
overnight, but generally dry conditions expected. Fri afternoon
may see winds get briefly gusty, with west northwest surface
gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible.

Outlook...

Friday night: MVFR ceilings possible along with a chance of
showers.

Saturday: MVFR cigs possible in the morning. A few showers possible
during the day along with a seabreeze/wind shift for coastal
terminals.

Saturday Night: Clouds thicken and lower with MVFR possible. IFR
bases possible near the coast along with some fog. SHRA for
coastal terminals, uncertain if these make it towards AUG/CON.

Sunday: MVFR ceilings continue through the morning with SHRA.
Gradual improvement towards VFR SW to NE into the early evening
hours.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, valley fog possible.

Monday and Tuesday: Some restrictions possible as SHRA again
push into the region. These are most likely for terminals in the
western half of the forecast area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...SCA conditions continue over the coastal
waters through Friday evening, mainly due to seas staying
elevated. A cold front crosses the waters this evening and
tonight with winds shifting to west to northwest. High pressure
becomes centered south of the waters Friday into Saturday with
seas subsiding through Saturday.

Winds become northeast Saturday night as low pressure passes
just outside the Gulf of Maine through Sunday. Winds and waves
will remain below SCA criteria through much of Monday, until low
level winds increase from the SW Monday night through Tuesday.
This could bring a period of Gales and increasing wave heights to
the waters Tuesday through the middle of next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152>154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151.

&&

DISCUSSION...Combs/Cornwell
AVIATION...Legro

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