Hail in Nebraska, June 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1133 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening across much of the Nebraska Panhandle.

- All severe weather hazards are possible today, but the
  greatest concern is the risk for large hail and strong winds.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through much of the week ahead with temperatures near average
  west of I-25 and cooler than average east of I-25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

After a thunderous Saturday, today's thunderstorm, possibly
severe, threat will be mainly confined to the Nebraska
Panhandle. Hi-res guidance is picking up on this convection and
starting it around 1PM this afternoon. This activity appears to
be scattered in nature as it moves east and out of our CWA by
6PM this evening. Even so, severe parameters aren't the best,
so the main threats will be hail and wind. The better instability
should stay off to the east, across central Nebraska. With the
influx of moisture over the last 24 hours, today will start off
with a few patches of fog across the Nebraska Panhandle and far
eastern Wyoming. This fog won't last long as winds turn
westerly after sunrise due a to frontal passage. With minimal
mid-level support, there are no indicators of high winds across
the CWA for this short term period. However, can't rule out
localized breezy conditions in our known wind prones across
southeast Wyoming. Temperatures will be slightly cooler today
with highs in the 70s west of I-25 and low 80s off to the east
of the corridor. While lows Sunday night will dip into the 40s,
near 50 across the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Monday into Tuesday, a low pressure system drops into the
Northern Plains sending a frontal passage through our area. This
weak front will bring some cool air over the Intermountain West
keeping our temperatures mostly in the 70s for both days, but
some isolated 80s will be possible as warm dry air starts to push
in from the west. As more of the dry air begins to filter in
overnight, RH values west of I-25 will start to drop into the
teens while everything east will stay into the 30s and 40s.
This dry air will most likely follow the upper level ridge that
sets up on the West Coast and slightly pushes east. The ridge
does look to compress on Thursday and Friday, allowing for some
continued chances for rainfall as more troughs/systems push
into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. This active
pattern could potential last through the weekend if the ridge
and dry airmass stays centered over the southwestern part of
the United States.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

An active TAF period, mainly for the Nebraska terminals as low-level
moisture remains in place, resulting in a chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms mainly before 02Z, hence the mention of VCTS and a
TEMPO group primarily for KAIA, KCDR, and KBFF where confidence is
highest. As winds calm during the evening hours and dewpoints are
progged to remain in the mid-50s, effective radiative cooling is
anticipated, which may lower CIGs to IFR for the aforementioned
terminals. Not enough confidence (<30%) at this time to include fog
in the TAFs, but lowered CIGs to IFR criteria after 04Z to convey
the possibility of low clouds. This will have to be monitored and
potentially included in the 00Z forecast depending on how today's
convection evolves. Otherwise, expect VFR for the Wyoming terminals
with variable winds less than 10 knots after 02Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...NB