Hail and Heavy Rain in Nebraska, June 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A decaying MCS will bring shower/storm chances overnight into
  early Tuesday mainly across western portions of our area.

- A summer-like pattern continues keeping warm and muggy weather
  in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  throughout the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A large complex of storms has developed over Central Nebraska
this evening, with a few embedded segments of strong to severe
storms. Primary hazards have been strong winds, hail. This stems
from a shortwave riding up the western flank of a ridge that is
building up over the Missouri River Valley. Out to the west, we
have a broad upper-level trough over the Intermountain West
amplifying southwesterly flow over Wyoming, Colorado, and the
Dakotas.

The shortwave driving the convective complex over central
Nebraska will push it east into our area overnight into early
Tuesday, weakening and dissipating as it continues east. As it
clears out, CAMs show it leaving a remnant MCV in place centered
around Boone County, NE. This MCV will trigger new storm
development Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating and clearing
cloud cover destabilizes the environment. There are some
differences in how much we destabilize tomorrow with remnant
cloud cover struggling to clear through the afternoon. Portions
of our area that clear earlier may see up to 1500J/kg of SBCAPE,
while other areas see only 500J/kg or less. If storms can
trigger in areas with greater destabilization, we could see a
a stronger storm or two develop, but shear is really weak. Any
stronger storms shouldn't last too long, but could produce
strong winds and/or small hail as it collapses on itself. These
storms will dissipate around sunset as they will be diurnally
driven.

Late Tuesday we see a shortwave from the Desert Southwest ridge
up into the southwesterly flow to our west, merging into the
upper-level trough over Montana. This amplifies the Jet Streak
over eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas, keeping evening-
overnight convection confined more west Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Even so we could still see a complex ride off this
boundary eastward, moving into our area early Wednesday as it
weakens and dissipates.

Going into midweek we see that trough over eastern Montana push
up into Alberta/Saskatchewan starting to nudge the ridge over
the Central Plains further east. This trend will shift the
moisture plume east, bringing afternoon/evening storm
development east into mainly western portions of our area
on Wednesday. With this we'll see 1500-2000J/kg of SBCAPE and a
marginal amount of SFC-500mb Bulk Shear of around 35kt, just
enough for a few strong to severe storms to be possible. More
likely, we see storms similar to what they are seeing to our
west today, several disorganized convective complexes develop
with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or hail. These
storms then migrate eastward into western Iowa overnight.

Thursday and Friday we see the ridge get shoved farther and
farther east, and a stream of southerly flow continuing to
stream warm, moist air out of the Gulf up into our area.
Thursday we see the ribbon of storms light back up across our
area during the afternoon and evening, again with only a
marginal potential for severe weather with anything that
develops. Friday, we see a shortwave perhaps increase the amount
of shear with a weak cold front moving through. This is possibly
our best chance for severe storms Friday evening into the
overnight hours.

Over the weekend we see a strong amplifying ridge over the
Northern Plains up into central Canada, situated north of a
trough over Oklahoma and Texas continuing to stream warm, moist
air into our region. Daily storm chances continue, giving us
much needed seasonal rainfall, though temperatures will be
warming into the mid-to-upper 80s each day with heat indices up
around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. The
primary concern will be a decaying thunderstorm complex pushing
in from the west overnight. The main question will be how far
the complex makes it before decaying, with the best chances of a
few hours of rainshowers and/or thunder being at KOFK and KLNK
before it fully decays by 02/14Z. Patchy, brief MVFR conditions
and wind gusts (up to 30 kts) will be possible if these
thunderstorms hold together. Otherwise, winds will remain calm
and out of the south- southeast, increasing to 12-14 kts during
the afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible (30% chance) again between 02/17-23Z. This chance has
been left out of the current forecast package due to the low
confidence in timing and coverage.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
924 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-030230-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
924 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A weakening complex of storms will move into eastern Nebraska after
midnight tonight potentially producing isolated gusts 50-60 mph and
some small hail. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through next week.
Thunderstorms could potentially be strong to severe, though chances
are low (less than 15%) at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     Hail             2 N Avoca               41.51N 95.34W
06/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Shelby             IA   Public

            Delayed report received via broadcast media,
            including a video showing copious amounts of
            hail falling. Hailstones were estimated to
            be at least 1 inch in diameter. Time was
            estimated using radar.

&&

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