Hail in Nebraska, April 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system lifting out of northwest Kansas is still on
  track to bring showers and storms through 7 PM this evening,
  with the strongest of which being potentially severe (5-20%
  chance).

- As the system departs, areas of northeast Nebraska could see a
  few snowflakes mix in with snow through early Saturday, with
  no accumulations expected.

- Dry conditions set up Saturday evening through Monday morning.

- Another pattern shift brings additional better chances for
  precipitation to the region beginning Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a neutrally-tilting
trough continuing its push into the Central Plains and helping serve
as the catalyst storm potential today across southeast Nebraska into
much of Iowa. Surface observations show a primary surface low
situated over northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending east-
northeast from it across northeastern Missouri. Over the course of
the early afternoon, this surface low and an accompanying warm
sector will clip far southeast Nebraska and travel into southwest
Iowa. To the north of it, warm air advection powers light
precipitation and drizzle across much of eastern Nebraska into Iowa,
resulting in very light precipitation and visibilities as low as one
mile. Temperatures will remain cool and largely in the upper 30s to
low 40s for these areas, making for a dreary afternoon that misses
out on any rumbles of thunder.

Focusing on the severe threat to the south and east, short-term
model solutions all show southwest to northeast-oriented jet
streaks, with speeds that ramp up quickly from the surface to the
lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere before the reaching their peak. Low-
level curvature is quite favorable in hodographs, with the deep-
layer shear being largely in line with the boundaries/forcing for
ascent. Over the next two hours, areas just to the north of the
surface low will have the help of that feature in addition to the
warm air advection, helping kick start elevated parcels that could
result in some small to marginally severe hail during the early
afternoon hours, continuing north and to the east in stride with the
surface low. Closer the the surface low and in the warm sector, a
narrow window exists for surface-based storms to initiate in or move
through the forecast area. These storms could initiate either along
a prefrontal confluence boundary about one county to the east of the
synoptic cold front, or on the cold front itself. These will be the
storms to watch out for, and will be confined to areas southeast of
a line from Lewiston, NE to Nodaway, IA. All three conventional
severe hazards will be possible (hail, wind, and a tornado or two),
with the tornado chances being dependent on how uninterrupted a
storm can be in its process of intensifying.

With the warm sector quickly approaching, now through 7 PM is the
window for any strong to severe storms to occur. While some
convective activity is a near-certainty, there are a couple of
failure modes for storms trying to reach severe levels. The main
initiation point for storms in the CAMs favors the synoptic
cold/Pacific front, and those storms may not keep up with the
advancing front and shorten their lifespan. Another failure mode for
severe storm potential would be higher-end shear and mid-upper
dryness that could make for a hostile environment for what are
expected to be somewhat narrow updrafts. With all of that in mind,
the overall severe chances for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
is between 5-20%. Once 7 PM rolls around, the western edge of the
warm sector will have swept through, clearing out precipitation
aside from comma-head rain with a few snowflakes (that will melt)
across northeast Nebraska into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Beyond:

The remainder of the forecast sees that upper pattern transition the
trough to the east of the area, in favor of a split zonal flow
pattern through the entire upcoming work week. It will be gusty
tomorrow, with winds out of the northwest ramping up gusts to 35-40
mph before slowly decreasing in speed. The front half of the week
will be marked by largely dry weather, before a warmer day
Wednesday that will bring a shortwave trough and a transition
to wetter conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours as
patchy drizzle and light rain showers traverse eastern
Nebraska, primarily KOMA and KLNK. An uptick in thunderstorm
activity is expected across far eastern Nebraska into the
afternoon, with highest confidence in impacts at KOMA. A brief
thunderstorm may pass by KLNK in the 18-20Z timeframe.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east into the
early evening, along with a gradual increase in northerly winds.
Have opted to keep ceilings towards the lower end of guidance
this evening, with most locations improving only to MVFR
conditions. Brief returns to VFR conditions will be possible
this evening and overnight, though confidence is low in
widespread improvement to VFR conditions until Saturday
morning. Northwesterly wind gusts will increase to the 20-25 kt
range into Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041730-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early
evening. A few storms may be capable of producing strong winds,
large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two through 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.